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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #214428

    The Oscars show us time and again that the Cinematography category knows no locks. None. Anything could happen and they’re often hard to predict, even with a clear favorite. 

    Mad Max: Fury Road in visual effects could happen and maybe I’ll be predicting it in the end but Star Wars was the huge winner at the VES Awards and films breaking BO records always end up winning something.

    The Lady Gaga/Diane Warren song is certainly a possibility but it’s in no way a lock.

    Morricone is probably safe but he could very well lose. It depends on how many voters actually remember that he’s the one responsible for the score and that he doesn’t have an Oscar win. His name isn’t listed on the ballot after all and it does some damage.

    Brie Larson is a lock. Stop with the Saoirse Ronan wishful thinking already. I liked Ronan more. I loved Rampling and she should take it but people adore Brie Larson. When I tuned in to watch the nominations on BBC, the host was gushing over her. When I watched the commentary after the BAFTA Nominations, everybody was like: Aw, she’s so good. When it comes to Ronan, it’s always “I loved the film.” And Larson won the Golden Globe, the SAG and the Critics’ Choice in addition to 95% of the minor critics’ groups. She’ll take the Indie Spirit and the Oscar next, maybe even BAFTA. Ronan has the NYFCC and even if she takes BAFTA, it’ll be too little, too late. The industry is in love with Brie and her film has more overall support. Yes, it’s only one nomination more than Brooklyn but it’s directing. It’s huge. 

    Stallone is no lock. He could very well go the Mickey Rourke route. And maybe the general public doesn’t know who Mark Rylance is, but trust me, a lot (and I mean a lot) of these voters do know who he is. The man’s a legendary stage actor. If he wins the BAFTA, he has a shot. If he doesn’t, it’s probably Stallone but it’s no lock. Nobody who was snubbed by SAG could be a lock. The odds are against him.

    Vikander is no lock but at this point she’s the likely winner. Even with a BAFTA win, it won’t be Winslet. They don’t give a damn about Steve Jobs. And she already has an Oscar. A second one doesn’t happen that easily, with such a solid but unremarkable performance. Mara could take BAFTA but will that be enough?

    The real locks to me are:
    DiCaprio
    Brie Larson
    Spotlight in original
    Inside Out in animated
    Son of Saul in foreign language film

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    Moviebuff22
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    #214429

    The Oscars show us time and again that the Cinematography category knows no locks. None. Anything could happen and they’re often hard to predict, even with a clear favorite. 

    Mad Max: Fury Road in visual effects could happen and maybe I’ll be predicting it in the end but Star Wars was the huge winner at the VES Awards and films breaking BO records always end up winning something.

    The Lady Gaga/Diane Warren song is certainly a possibility but it’s in no way a lock.

    Morricone is probably safe but he could very well lose. It depends on how many voters actually remember that he’s the one responsible for the score and that he doesn’t have an Oscar win. His name isn’t listed on the ballot after all and it does some damage.

    Brie Larson is a lock. Stop with the Saoirse Ronan wishful thinking already. I liked Ronan more. I loved Rampling and she should take it but people adore Brie Larson. When I tuned in to watch the nominations on BBC, the host was gushing over her. When I watched the commentary after the BAFTA Nominations, everybody was like: Aw, she’s so good. When it comes to Ronan, it’s always “I loved the film.” And Larson won the Golden Globe, the SAG and the Critics’ Choice in addition to 95% of the minor critics’ groups. She’ll take the Indie Spirit and the Oscar next, maybe even BAFTA. Ronan has the NYFCC and even if she takes BAFTA, it’ll be too little, too late. The industry is in love with Brie and her film has more overall support. Yes, it’s only one nomination more than Brooklyn but it’s directing. It’s huge. 

    Stallone is no lock. He could very well go the Mickey Rourke route. And maybe the general public doesn’t know who Mark Rylance is, but trust me, a lot (and I mean a lot) of these voters do know who he is. The man’s a legendary stage actor. If he wins the BAFTA, he has a shot. If he doesn’t, it’s probably Stallone but it’s no lock. Nobody who was snubbed by SAG could be a lock. The odds are against him.

    Vikander is no lock but at this point she’s the likely winner. Even with a BAFTA win, it won’t be Winslet. They don’t give a damn about Steve Jobs. And she already has an Oscar. A second one doesn’t happen that easily, with such a solid but unremarkable performance. Mara could take BAFTA but will that be enough?

    The real locks to me are:
    DiCaprio
    Brie Larson
    Spotlight in original
    Inside Out in animated
    Son of Saul in foreign language film

    You could make the same arguments for Rylance as Tom Hardy. Minus the stage career

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    Emil Petrov
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    #214430

    Lubezki is frontrunner for Cinematography but he is not a lock. 

    He won all the awards including ASC in 2006 for Children of Men but lost the Oscar to Pan’s Labyrinth.  

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    Pinkrose
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    #214431

    Nobody is a look, even Leo.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #214432

    Winslet absolutely has no chance. She should be grateful to HFPA that they gave her some hope with that Globe win.
    Tell me one more actor who has won their second/third Oscar in such a brief time with a movie that has little to no support in a role that no one even care to talk about in this award season.
    SAG-AFTRA is the biggest popularity contest in the whole award business and she lost to a ”newcomer”, so to speak, there. So her being the most recognizable name in this lineup, theories just should stop.

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    Nate
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    #214433

    That’s a really interesting question at this stage of things, as voting doesn’t even start until next Friday. I’d say Inside Out for Animated Feature and Son Of Soul for Foreign Language Feature for sure, followed by DiCaprio for Lead Actor and Larson for Lead Actress, and then Spotlight for Original Screenplay and The Big Short for Adapted Screenplay. After that, as far as I’m concerned, there are no locks, as while I suspect Mad Max will do well with technical prizes, it is so unclear to me right now how many and which ones will ultimately go its way.

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    #214435
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    #214436
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    benutty
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    #214437

    Aside from CAROL being a lock for Best Picture, I think we can safely assume the following wins:

    Actor – DiCaprio
    Actress – Larson
    Original Screenplay – Spotlight
    Adapted Screenplay – The Big Short
    Animated Feature – Inside Out

    I question anyone who thinks, at this moment, anything else is locked. There’s movement to be made in all of the other categories, as near-locked as some may be. Those near-locks are:

    Supporting Actress – Vikander
    Foreign Language Film – Son of Saul
    Cinematography – The Revenant
    Score – The Hateful Eight
    Production Design – Mad Max: Fury Road 

    The craft guilds have shown equal love to The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road (as well as some for Star Wars: The Force Awakens) to consider anything among Sound, Visual Effects, Makeup & Hairstyling, Costumes or Film Editing a lock or near-lock.

    Supporting Actor is in such flux, with different people nominated/not nominated, winning/not winning in places that to be certain of any prediction, in any direction is absurd. It’s the most unpredictable category left on the table. Even if you’re currently “certain” Stallone is going to win and he *does* win, it won’t make this moment in time any more of a lock than you want to say it is. It’s not locked.

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    Michael Norris
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    #214438

    I think people are considering Stallone a lock because Mark Rylance didn’t beat Idris Elba at SAG, but we don’t know if Stallone would’ve beaten him either, and even if it did help Stallone, it helps Ruffalo and Hardy just as much.

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    benutty
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    #214439

    I think people are considering Stallone a lock because Mark Rylance didn’t beat Idris Elba at SAG, but we don’t know if Stallone would’ve beaten him either, and even if it did help Stallone, it helps Ruffalo and Hardy just as much.

    Exactly. There are too many ifs in the Supporting Actor race that require people to assume that Stallone is a lock. The ifs and the assumptions mean, almost definitively, that he isn’t a lock. Locks are nominees that have won and been nominated in the category non-stop through the entire gauntlet, like DiCaprio and Larson. 

    Believing that something is most likely going to happen does not make it a lock. 

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    AwardsConnect
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    #214441

    I would argue DiCaprio is the one and only true lock. The likes of Ronan, “Mustang,” “Anamoslia” and “Star Wars” in the tech categories, among others, at least have slim chances. Nobody else in Lead Actor does.

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    Damiansport1
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    #214442

    If Bale and Rylance cant win SAG without Sly in the field how can they win Oscar? So i think if anybody will upset Sly its gonna be Hardy or Ruffalo. You get it

    And How Son of Saul is not a lock benutty? And Amy is at least near-lock.

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    benutty
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    #214443

    And How Son of Saul is not a lock benutty? And Amy is at least near-lock.

    Because the Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature categories are notoriously unpredictable and are always ripe for upsets. And, honestly, Amy is not a good documentary so I refuse to consider it at all, let alone consider it a near-lock.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #214444

    We’ll see. 

    Steve Jobs is as popular as The Danish Girl. So not really.

    The Danish girl hardly got any nominations. And even though performance wise he may not be the best, if anyone has any small chance to beat Leo I think it’s Matt Damon.

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