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January 14, 2017 at 11:07 am #1201987688
Going completely out on a limb and saying Laura Linney in Nocturnal Animals over Octavia. If Nocturnal Animals does well across the board then maybe she could sneak in Jacki Weaver/Jonah Hill style. Gotta have at least one fun prediction!
That would 100% be undeserved.January 14, 2017 at 11:18 am #1201987690
Jake Gyllenhaal isn’t getting nominated. They didn’t nominate him for Nightcrawler and they damn sure not about to nominate him for Nocturnal Animals. And why in the fuck would Washington miss but not Mortensen? If you’re going to have surprise nominees, it’ll be something like Janelle Monae or Taraji. Or Michael Shannon.January 14, 2017 at 11:30 am #1201987693
Bening over Adams/Streep and Gyllenhaal over Mortensen are the most realistic picks. Will Monáe or Greta Gerwig be able to eke one out over Spencer? Probably not. And there’s no chance of a surprise in Supporting Actor; this is a six-man race and one man’s just going to get left out. The narrative’s formed around Taylor-Johnson; they should but won’t overlook him in favor of Shannon. And as big a Silence fan as I am, Issey Ogata is just wishful thinking.January 14, 2017 at 11:33 am #1201987695
<p style=”text-align: left;”>Nobody cares about 20th Century Women or Loving. And yes, if they love Hidden Figures that much, Monae can knock out Spencer. I don’t expect her to but she can.</p>January 14, 2017 at 11:52 am #1201987700
Bening over Adams/Streep and Gyllenhaal over Mortensen are the most realistic picks. Will Monáe or Greta Gerwig be able to eke one out over Spencer? Probably not. And there’s no chance of a surprise in Supporting Actor; this is a six-man race and one man’s just going to get left out. The narrative’s formed around Taylor-Johnson; they should but won’t overlook him in favor of Shannon. And as big a Silence fan as I am, Issey Ogata is just wishful thinking.
I want Bening to be nominated BUT have they seen the film? It came out too late. And it didn’t catch fire with anybody other than the HFPA. The SAG and BAFTA snubs hurt. And of course, no major critics gave their awards to Bening, which practically killed her chances. Streep is very popular right now. Adams is in a film headed for best picture.
And here’s what I’ll predict. I’ll probably regret it, but maybe I won’t. It’s a crazy hunch and this is why I’m predicting Adams out, Negga in. But wouldn’t it be lovely for Viola Davis to be nominated in lead and to turn two categories upside down..January 14, 2017 at 12:03 pm #1201987704
Yeah, I’m predicting the consensus five. I really don’t think this category’s going to move. But if there is a surprise in the category, I think it’s Bening.
And if Mara and Vikander stayed in supporting last year, then so’s Davis.January 14, 2017 at 12:13 pm #1201987707
Here is a far-out thought I had: Taraji P. Henson bumping Amy Adams in Lead Actress.January 14, 2017 at 12:16 pm #1201987708
Jake Gyllenhaal isn’t getting nominated. They didn’t nominate him for Nightcrawler and they damn sure not about to nominate him for Nocturnal Animals. And why in the fuck would Washington miss but not Mortensen? If you’re going to have surprise nominees, it’ll be something like Janelle Monae or Taraji. Or Michael Shannon.
The academy does bassawkwards things all the timeJanuary 14, 2017 at 12:17 pm #1201987710This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 14, 2017 at 12:26 pm #1201987711
I mean, how is Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler and Mortensen in Captain Fantastic too different from each other. Both are praised performances in lesser seen films that got in everywhere. Nightcrawler’s guild run as a whole was still (much more) impresive yet didn’t stop the Academy to give it the cold shoulder to him. I can see your passion argument with Mortensen but that last example contradicts with what you’ve said before it.
I don’t remember SAG nominating both the lead actor and the cast from Nightcrawler, therefore it had less support from the people that vote for acting nominations.January 14, 2017 at 12:30 pm #1201987714
Maybe at the end of the day, with all the precursors and a Globe win (for publicity and awareness value)….Isabelle Huppert is snubbed. I have her third in line like almost everybody I suppose. But there’s something to maybe consider…
I have Ruth Negga in and Amy Adams out, forgot about doing that a few days ago in the predictions center, even though I just said on this thread that I didn’t see Amy Adams being left out.
I think this is the first year I’ve really played with that predictions center. I’ve been changing it a lot.January 14, 2017 at 1:59 pm #1201987739
I think Lead Actor & Supporting Actress are pretty set, as they have been fairly consistent (save the BAFTAS). For Lead Actress, I think Huppert & Streep will be left out in favor of Bening & Henson, creating the follow: Portman, Adams, Stone, Henson, Bening.
For Supporting Actor: Ali, Bridges, Patel, Shannon, & Hedges.January 14, 2017 at 2:35 pm #1201987758
Here is a far-out thought I had: Taraji P. Henson bumping Amy Adams in Lead Actress.
That COULD happen, but only if Amy Adams splits votes for her Nocturnal Animals performance and if BOTH Janelle Monae and Octavia Spencer get nominated.
I honestly see that. Adams hasn’t really won anything major except NBR (so did Emma Thompson) and shes being nominated everywhere but snubbed on Oscar morning? I’m not predicting it and I expect her to get in though.January 14, 2017 at 4:52 pm #1201987941
I am really searching for where the inevitable snubs are going to come from this because far too much seems set in stone. I mean:
Best Picture: La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Hell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge, Arrival, Hidden Figures, Fences (+ Nocturnal Animals if there’s 10)- I really can’t see any but these being nominated. Silence is just starting to seem like a GoldDerby pipe dream.
Best Director: Chazelle, Lonergan, Jenkins and Villeneuve appear to solid to not miss out. So there is really only one slot here and is Garth Davis, who I am predicting, still really a surprise after that DGA nod? Honestly, other than Tom Ford is there anyone else? Scorsese whose film just seems not have landed (people can make American Sniper comparisons all they like but that became the biggest box office film of 2014).
Best Actor: Affleck, Washington, Garfield, Gosling and Mortensen. Again, these all seem stable. Mortensen seems the most likely to not make it but my issue with this is that none of the other contenders make sense replacing him as Edgerton and Hanks have barely landed. Gyllenhaal is probably closest for me (if NA is loved) but I can’t see him getting in for this if he couldn’t for Nightcrawler. I suppose there’s potential for Keaton to survive?
Best Actress: Portman, Stone, Streep, Huppert and Adams. I can’t see any of the first 3 missing and Huppert and Adams definitely seem to have pulled off enough to get in. Bening and Negga’s films have no buzz so I can’t see them touching. As such it’s really just Blunt or Henson as in anyway viable in my eyes. Blunt has clearly built up popularity within the industry and, unlike Huppert, she’s got in with the actual Oscar crossover precursors but are the Oscars really going to get over their snobbery about thrillers for a performance in one that wasn’t well received? I doubt it. Henson is definitely a dark horse due to her film hitting just at peak voting time but then again, all of SAG, Golden Globe and BAFTA have awarded her film in some capacity yet chose not to choose her. Surely if people loved her as part of the film she at least would have got that Globe nod?
Best Supporting Actor: Ali, Bridges, Patel, Grant and Taylor Johnson. The first 3 are locks. Taylor Johnson is emerging at just the right time and the stats about that Globe win don’t lie. Grant meanwhile has got in everywhere he needs to. So another category seems fixed. In looking for a change somewhere I’d say Taylor-Johnson can miss because it could just be that the Globes liked Tom Ford and BAFTA liked a brit. Meanwhile, something about me is not certain at all about Grant getting nominated. It reminds me a bit of when Jennifer Aniston came close, something about him being an Oscar nominee is just starting to seem intangible to me. Yet, despite these qualms I don’t know who replaces them. Hedges to me is no different from Tremblay (and is arguably less acclaimed), Shannon could steal the NA love but can he really get in now when he missed after getting so many precursors but not Oscar last year, and Ogata is in a film that just isn’t hitting.
Best Supporting Actress: Davis, Williams, Harris, Kidman and Spencer. Seriously who is missing here? Spencer is the obvious weaker link but who is she to be replaced with? Gerwig who has yet to get in anywhere and who’s film has no buzz? Monae who has clearly lost to Spencer in becoming the consensus pick for HF? Frankly, the category seems the most locked out there.
All this makes me a tad uncomfortable as I seem to be expecting 33/34 slots as virtually certain. There are proper surprises every year so I know I must be missing something but no logic as able to show me where that might be.
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