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Oscar opening upset

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    Jackson B
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    #1201987987

    Davis is nominated for lead instead of supporting.

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    Roney Moore
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    #1201988004

    One big difference. That year’s actor race – while not particularly strong – was crowded. The Academy had options. This year they simply don’t have options as this is a really weak best actor year. And we all know the Academy won’t nominate Adam Driver.

    Of course, you are right. I’m predicting the consensus five because of that.

    I’m just not sure if someone being his movie’s only pony in the race is actually a result of passion or a sign of weakness. At the end of the day, the ones that had gotten in everywhere but surprisingly got the axe by the Academy at the end were mostly actors in smaller films. Swinton, Thompson, Elba, Brühl, Shannon etc.

     

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    #1201988008
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    Roney Moore
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    #1201988009

    I’m also debating predicting Jake Gyllenhaal over Viggo. When was the last time someone was nominated with just a Bafta nom? I also don’t think Lucas Hedges will be nominated, nor do I think “can’t stop the feeling” will be nominated in original song.

    Javier Bardem for Biutiful, maybe? Even though usually the things that only BAFTA nominate don’t translate into Oscars.

    Although I doubt it, but Nocturnal Animals’ fate as a whole might be similar to The Master, a film that is mostly ignored by SAG and other guilds but revived by BAFTA and had a bunch of Globe nods. Divisive nature of the film could be evened out by preferential ballot.

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    MartinR
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    #1201988010

    All eyes on “Hidden Figures”. It’s #1 and for it to be this successful is kind of a rarity but the movie I found a wonderful surprise.

    I’m out on a limb for Taraji P. Henson…….All the ladies are great but only Octavia Spencer is getting the attention while Henson and Janelle Monae are absolutely wonderful. Henson in as supporting or even lead.

    I don’t buy the Aaron Taylor Johnson thing.

    I would love to see Ben Foster in supporting. There’s always a surprise or snub in at least two of the four acting nominations. I’d even drop Huppert for Henson. “Hidden Figures” has hit momentum at exactly the right time.

     

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    Lucas A
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    #1201988040

    Jake Gyllenhaal isn’t getting nominated. They didn’t nominate him for Nightcrawler and they damn sure not about to nominate him for Nocturnal Animals.  

    This has been said a lot, but a few things:

    1). That was a competitive year (Oyelowo, Fiennes, and Spall, with Isaac, Teller, and Affleck on the outskirts).

    2). We have no idea how many votes Gyllenhaal lost by.

    3).  His snub can only serve to expand his base.

    4).  Nocturnal Animals is way more in the thick of it than Nightcrawler was.

    Also, the voting body of the Academy is much larger.  How many do you think have seen Captain Fantastic?

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    Bee
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    #1201988042

    Gyllenhaal was nominated everywhere for Nightcrawler and still missed to Bradley Cooper because they gave in to war bait and didn’t like the dark and weird Nightcrawler. Gone Girl was the same way because it was too brutal for them and honestly, Nocturnal Animals is probably worse.

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    Lucas A
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    #1201988046

    True, though to that end he also had Keaton, Carrell, and Affleck to contend with the “dark and weird” vote.  The 5 frontrunners this year are all in more conventional films.  And Gyllenhaal did do well on his own that year, but across categories NA seems to have more traction.

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    Roney Moore
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    #1201988057

    There is a huge difference between Shailene Woodley, Andrew Garfield, Jacob Tremblay AND Lucas Hedges. Hedges will be nominated for an Oscar.

    I think Hedges is on the bubble but here are few things that might push him ahead of his previously snubbed young peers; Unlike Patel and Tremblay he doesn’t have category confusion problem. Unlike Kunis and to some extent Garfield he doesn’t have other substantial supporting co-stars in the film stealing votes from him. Unlike (again) Kunis he isn’t an actress that plays a character that is completely defined by her sexuality which was something the Academy always had problems with. Like you said unlike many he has hit SAG and his film is in T3.

    The only example in recent memory that concerns me is SAG nominee Diane Kruger but then again, had Maggie Gyllenhaal been submitted in supporting at SAG like she later on would be campaigned for Oscars, Kruger might not have been nommed in the first place.

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    forwardswill
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    #1201988097

    I could also see one of the moonlight boys making it in over Grant. I think Grant won’t make it.

    I’ve been thinking the same. Although which one? They lack a consensus over who was next best after Ali.

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #1201988099

    There is a huge difference between Shailene Woodley, Andrew Garfield, Jacob Tremblay AND Lucas Hedges. Hedges will be nominated for an Oscar.

    I think Hedges is on the bubble but here are few things that might push him ahead of his previously snubbed young peers; Unlike Patel and Tremblay he doesn’t have category confusion problem. Unlike Kunis and to some extent Garfield he doesn’t have other substantial supporting co-stars in the film stealing votes from him. Unlike (again) Kunis he isn’t an actress that plays a character that is completely defined by her sexuality which was something the Academy always had problems with. Like you said unlike many he has hit SAG and his film is in T3.

    The only example in recent memory that concerns me is SAG nominee Diane Kruger but then again, had Maggie Gyllenhaal been submitted in supporting at SAG like she later on would be campaigned for Oscars, Kruger might not have been nommed in the first place.

    I was thinking the same thing but the whole Diane Kruger SAG nomination / Oscar snub happened only due to Melanie Laurent’s botched campaign. In the end, nobody knew if she was in leading or supporting. She was submitted in lead at the SAG Awards but they switched to supporting midway through the season (at least this is how I remember it) and I guess she stole lots of votes as she was the far more popular female performance in the film. She was really popular among Oscar bloggers. Nobody cared about Diane Kruger. I still have not warmed up to her performance. And Hedges’s character is really, really likable. I don’t think he’ll miss in the end.

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #1201988103

    I could also see one of the moonlight boys making it in over Grant. I think Grant won’t make it.

    I’ve been thinking the same. Although which one? They lack a consensus over who was next best after Ali.

    I doubt it. He’s ticking all the right boxes.
    Comeback. Once a big star…
    Lots of screen time – category fraud, but they don’t care.
    He has never ever been nominated.He’s considered overdue.
    He’s likable. He’s funny. Kind of.
    He’s British.
    He hit all the crucial precursors.
    Maybe he’s campaigning for it.
    But this category has the potential to shock us. Only Ali is safe. I can even envision the category without Bridges.

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