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Oscar Predicting Algorithm

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Thomas Eagan
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  • Jacob Rey
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    Hello Gold Derby People.  Earlier this year while in the depths of unemployment, I made an algorithm for determining the nominees for most of the film categories (I got a job before getting to Sound Editing, Mixing, and Visual Effects).

    The idea was that in every given year, we know who the contenders are based on precursors, and we know who the 5 nominees they ultimately go with, so to solve it like one giant algebra equation, where the ‘x’ factor is a bunch of demographic variables that must be sorted through and tweaked based on trial and error.  So what I did was find one equation per category that could correctly spit out the 5 nominees of the last 7 years.

    This is the first chance to try it out before the nominees are announced.  It will probably go horribly, but I thought people might get a kick out if it, and of course if it somehow works then I’ll have proof of my labors.

    I give estimations on vote distribution in the major categories, and list the two runners up.  While I’m apprehensive that these are the correct predictions, I do like that even though every category has its own equation, they’re pretty consistent with each other.  Here we have The Post and Molly’s Game surging, while Mudbound, The Florida Project, and Get Out lose some steam.

     

    Best Picture:

    1. The Shape of Water – 13.37%

    2.  Dunkirk – 11.65%

    3.  Call Me By Your Name – 10%

    4.  Get Out – 9.8%

    5.  The Post – 9.6%

    6.  Three Billboards – 8%

    7.  Lady Bird – 7.8%

    8.  The Big Sick – 6.1%

    9.  Molly’s Game – 5.7%

    10.  Mudbound – 4%

    11.  Darkest Hour – 3.7%

     

    Best Director:

    1.     Guillermo Del Toro – 23.9%

    2.     Christopher Nolan – 12.8%

    3.     Luca Guadagnino – 12%

    4.     Steven Spielberg – 10.4%

    5.     Martin McDonaugh – 10.1%

    6.     Greta Gerwig – 4.6%

    7.     Denis Villeneuve– 4.6%

     

    Best Actor:

    1.     Gary Oldman – 43.1%

    2.     James Franco – 19.5%

    3.     Timothee Chalamet – 16.7%

    4.     Tom Hanks – 8.2%

    5.     Hugh Jackman – 7.3%

    6.     Denzel Washington – 4.5%

    7.     Daniel Kaluuya – 2.1%

     

    Best Actress:

    1.     Frances McDormand – 21.8%

    2.     Margo Robbie – 21.6%

    3.     Saoirse Ronan – 18.4%

    4.     Sally Hawkins – 13.7%

    5.     Meryl Streep – 6.3%

    6.     Jessica Chastain – 6.3%

    7.     Judi Dench – 5.1%

     

    Best Supporting Actor:

    1.     Sam Rockwell – 33%

    2.     Willem Dafoe – 15%

    3.     Woody Harrelson – 10.8%

    4.     Richard Jenkins – 8%

    5.     Christopher Plummer – 5.9%

    6.     Michael Shannon – 5.7%

    7.     Idris Elba – 4.1%

     

    Best Supporting Actress:

    1.     Allison Janney – 29.9%

    2.     Laurie Metcalf – 15.2%

    3.     Kristin Scott Thomas – 9.2%

    4.     Holly Hunter – 9%

    5.     Octavia Spencer – 8.5%

    6.     Mary J. Blige – 7.1%

    7.     Lesley Manville – 6.2%

     

    Best Original Screenplay:

    1.     Lady Bird – 23.5%

    2.     Get Out – 20.7%

    3.     The Shape of Water – 15.8%

    4.     I, Tonya – 11.5%

    5.     Three Billboards – 11.1%

    6.     The Big Sick – 9.9%

    7.   Phantom Thread – 3.7%

     

    Best Adapted Screenplay:

    1.     Call Me By Your Name – 27%

    2.     Molly’s Game – 21.9%

    3.     Mudbound – 14.5%

    4.     The Disaster Artist – 14%

    5.     Logan – 7.9%

    6.     Films Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool – 5.1%

    7.     Blade Runner 2049 – 4.2%

     

    Best Cinematography:

    1.     Blade Runner 2049 – 27.6%

    2.     Dunkirk – 17.6%

    3.     The Shape of Water – 15.9%

    4.     Darkest Hour – 15.1%

    5.     The Post – 7.4%

    6.     Wonder Wheel – 5.4%

    7.     Three Billboards – 5.4%

     

    Best Editing:

    1.     Dunkirk

    2.     Baby Driver

    3.     The Shape of Water

    4.     The Post

    5.     Molly’s Game

    6.     Blade Runner 2049

    7.     Three Billboards

     

    Best Original Score:

    1.     Phantom Thread

    2.     The Shape of Water

    3.     The Post

    4.     Darkest Hour

    5.     Dunkirk

    6.     Blade Runner: 2049

    7.     Jane

     

    Best Production Design:

    1.     The Shape of Water

    2.     Beauty and the Beast

    3.     Dunkirk

    4.     Blade Runner 2049

    5.     Murder on the Orient Express

    6.     Darkest Hour

    7.     Downsizing

     

    Best Costume Design:

    1.     Phantom Thread

    2.     The Shape of Water

    3.     The Greatest Showman

    4.      Beauty and the Beast

    5.     Wonder Woman

    6.     Dunkirk

    7.     Murder on the Orient Express

    • This topic was modified 10 months ago by  Jacob Rey.
    • This topic was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jacob Rey.
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    Thomas Eagan
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 2nd, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202469097

    CMBYN not exactly looking like a fill in for whomever made that statement.

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