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Oscar Predictions You’re Most Proud Of and Embarrassed By

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    The first two threads appear to have some sort of technical glitches, so I’m starting a third one.

    On the most recent episode of the Next Best Picture podcast, Karl Jacob tweeted a question that was asked on the show. It went “What Oscar prediction that came true are you most proud of? Which wrong prediction are you embarrassed about?” I liked the question so much, that I thought I’d ask all of you reading this.

    I think the Oscar prediction that came true I am most proud of is predicting Spotlight for Best Picture in 2015. The race that year was a real tough one. I up until the last minute was settled on The Revenant given the momentum that movie had. Yet, when Tom O’Neil posted his article about why he settled on Spotlight as his final prediction, I started to have second thoughts. I knew no matter which choice I ended up going with, it was going to be risky. But then again, I was reminded of the Best Picture race from the year before. I had Birdman winning all the way (even after Boyhood won BAFTA since I knew that was a very divisive film), and I was glad I stuck with it. Since Tom made a good point about The Revenant being very divisive, I ended up switching to Spotlight at the last minute, and I was very glad I did. In fact, that ended up being the last time I correctly predicted the Best Picture winner until 2019 when I successfully settled on Parasite.

    As for the wrong prediction I’m most embarrassed by, it would have to be predicting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri back in 2017. The race that year was so unpredictable as there were three films people kept going back and forth on as to what they think was going to win, and they all had their pros and cons. Three Billboards didn’t have a Best Director nomination, was plagued with controversy, and was very divisive. Get Out didn’t have an editing nomination, was a horror movie, and a number of Academy members reportedly didn’t even watch it as they looked at what kind of film it was and felt “That’s not an Oscar movie!”. Meanwhile, The Shape of Water may have been the only film to have received all the key Oscar nominations that are usually required to win Best Picture, but it still did not receive a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble. Plus, a number of predictors were questioning whether or not that movie was going to be seen as “too weird” by older Academy members. I settled on Three Billboards because of the momentum it had at that point in the race. But when Get Out beat it for Best Original Screenplay, I thought “There goes my Best Picture prediction”. I know there were some people who still predicted Three Billboards to win with Get Out taking screenplay, but that never made sense to me. You have to go all the way back to 2002 when Chicago was the last film (to date) that won Best Picture without any additional wins for directing nor writing. In the end, what I should’ve took more into account was that Three Billboards was a divisive movie that only won prior Best Picture prizes under plurality votes as opposed to preferential voting systems. I also should’ve just played it safe by predicting The Shape of Water given that it was the only film that didn’t miss out on any important nominations at the Oscars. In response to its SAG Ensemble snub, I’m guessing it had to have been sixth place for the nomination given the ensemble nature of that movie. Plus, it at least still had two individual acting bids there. I also think as we’ve seen in recent years that if your film isn’t nominated for Best Ensemble, but is still recognized in other categories at SAG, then that probably shouldn’t be too detrimental to your chances of winning the Oscar. Just ask Green Book and Nomadland.

    Now on to everyone reading this. What Oscar prediction that came true are you most proud of? Which wrong prediction are you embarrassed about?

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    JV
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    Colette winning Documentary Short last year
    Jonathan Pryce nominated in Best Actor
    Phantom Thread in Picture

    I’m ashamed of predicting Battle of the Sexes to be a top tier contender at the beginning of the race.

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    Qoslca
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    Most proud of: Predicting Green Book to win Best Picture right from the beginning of the race.

    Least proud of: switching to Boseman on Oscars night when I had predicted Hopkins all season. 🙂

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.” 🎥

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    veronikavoss
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    Recently I’m proud that I was able to call Colman a potential winner for The Favourite from the start, initially when on forums like this people thought she might not be nominated in lead, and then that there’s no way she’d be able to beat Gaga, and then that there’s no way she’d be able to beat Glenn Close.

    I can’t think of many I’m necessarily embarrassed about, I guess I was quite off with how dismissive I was about Argo partly just because I thought it was SO unimpressive compared to some of the other nominees. But in recent years, especially as my own tastes have diverged from what’s annually advertised as awards players, I’ve been able to separate my personal opinion a little more than I’ve been guilty of doing in the past (though it could have helped at times, like predicting Viola last year despite personally preferring Frances in that category).

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    wolfali
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    Proud of: Predicting The Father‘s Oscar nomination over-performance last year.

    Embarrassed by: Listening to rationality rather than my heart and predicting Olivia Colman to lose best actress for The Favourite to Glenn Close at the Oscars after the BAFTAs in spite of the fact Colman gave my favourite performance that year.

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    Anirudh Arun
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    Proud: Predicting Thomas Vinterberg to get nominated for Best Director for Another Round and also, Aaron Sorkin’s snub, thereby going 5 for 5 in Best Director last year.

    Embarrassed: Switching to Rachel Weisz at the very last minute after predicting for Regina King the whole season and thinking that her win would be the big surprise of the night. Boy, was I wrong about which The Favourite lady would surprise!

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    mateil
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    Proud :

    Spotlight for Picture

    Parasite for Picture

    Anthony Hopkins for Actor

     

    Embarassed :

    Three Billboards for Picture

    The Favourite for Picture

    Little Women for Adapted Screenplay

    Klaus for Animated Film

    Parasite for Editing

    Andra Day for Actress

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    Foolio
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    Proud: I called Brad Pitt’s win for OUATIH the minute I heard about his role in the film, and I never wavered.

    Embarrased: Nothing, because predictions are supposed to be speculative, but I suppose I could have done better than time and again insist Madonna was going to be nominated for Best Song, first for Beautiful Stranger, then Die Another Day, and then that W.E. song that, as it turned out, wasn’t even eligible.

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    mateil
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    As for nominations:

    Proud:

    Getting the actor/actress slate correct at 2020 Oscars.

    Predicting Apollo 11 miss for Documentary.

     

    Embarassed :

    Taking Phantom Thread and Manville out last minute.

    Missing Hanks for Song Kang-ho.

    Taking Vinterberg out last minute.

    Missing Yeun for Rahim.

     

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    Butz
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    People really shouldn’t be embarrassed because they predicted Three Billboards. It literally won every precursor but Critics Choice. It winning made all the sense in the world until it lost Screenplay.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    crabbie
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    I’m most proud of predicting Parasite to win Best Picture since the beginning of the race even after it’s losses at the Globes and Critics Choice. I also called Yuh-Jung Youn winning since the Globes gave it to Foster. Called Judas in cinematography and The Father in production design this year was great too.

    Embarrassed about not predicting Todd Phillips in director. His film won the Golden Lion it should have been obvious at that point. I felt confident Aaron Sorkin would not have been snubbed at all but I was so happy to have been proven wrong. I was somewhat confident Nomadland would take adapted screenplay as well.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    Proud of my Timothée Chalamet snub prediction for Beautiful Boy. The film was dreadful, Chalamet got lucky that there were some love left for his Oscar-nominated performance, because man, the voters didn’t care about his repetitive acting technique later on either (Little Women).

    FYC 2022 Emmys:

    Best Actress in a Drama Series: Sandra Oh in "Killing Eve"

    Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Sandra Oh in "The Chair"

    Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Kim Joo-ryoung in "Squid Game"

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    Butz
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    I’m usually a pretty safe predictor so nothing to write home about there. Guess I’m proud of standing by my DiCaprio OUATIH prediction for the whole year when people constantly doubted him, not falling for the Song Kang-ho absurdity and switching Tahar Rahim out for Steven Yeun the day before the nominations. The most embarrassing thing that ever happened to me was having a bet with a friend since summer of 2018 that Taron Egerton would not make it in and then succumbing to the pressure when he got in almost everywhere and won the Globe. Still won the bet though.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    Orestes
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    Proud

    Called Boy and the World for a best animated feature nom as soon as the trailer dropped

    Lesley Manville nom for Phantom Thread (and I hadn’t even seen it yet!)

    All three Black Panther wins (I was never persuaded that The Favourite or Beale Street would win those categories)

    Paweł Pawlikowski directing nom for Cold War

    Held onto Charlotte Rampling even after she missed BAFTA

    Successfully predicted snubs for Daniel Brühl, Jennifer Aniston, James Franco, Timothée Chalamet, Jennifer Lopez & Lupita Nyong’o (😥)

    Correct BAFTA jury predictions of Adarsh Gourav & Wunmi Mosaku (as well as the snub for Olivia Colman)

    Embarrassed

    I held onto a Philip Seymour Hoffman win for The Master as a hopediction to the very end (I justified it by the split winners in that category at the time, but I was new to the game then and would never make that prediction now)

    For some obscure reason best known to myself I had Birdman down to win Picture and Cinematography only

    Over-predicting La La Land – I had it winning Film Editing and Sound Mixing as well as Picture

    Being persuaded by the bogus SAG Ensemble stat that The Shape of Water wouldn’t win Best Picture (we were all traumatised by La La Land lol)

    Not going with my gut on Olivia Colman vs. Glenn Close (more overthinking persuaded me to predict Rachel Weisz as well)

    Predicted Toy Story 4 for BAFTA, then consequently Klaus for Oscar (it was the other way around)

    Had Thomas Vinterberg in the 5th slot for directing, but then got cold feet and replaced him with Florian Zeller

     

     

     

     

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