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Oscar short films = PANIC

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  • Damiansport1
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    #217163

    i dont know what to do with them. And i dont quite believe Gold Derby odds on these categories because i think 95% people predicting here didnt saw them and they are just picking those with lowest odds. you know what i mean.

    I saw only animations and i think Bear Story is winning because is so touching, the score is beautiful. Its Mr Hublot 2.0. People are picking Sanjay because its Pixar. And last 7 Pixar films lost in this category! World of tomorrow could be too weird to win

    i have no way to see any of Live action and short documentary…so i need your help. Some good experts like Tapley, Thompson, Stone are predicting “Shok” in live action short. Short subject looks to be between “Body Team 12” and “Claude Lanzmann”

    So those who saw, if you nice enough, please rank these films in order of a) who you think SHOULD win and b) who you think WILL win. Im really losing sleep!

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    Andrew Carden
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    #217165

    Pretty sure you could predict these entirely at random and have just a high a chance as anyone of nailing them. I’m going with “Bear Story,” “Last Day of Freedom” and “Day One” for no real substantive reasons. http://www.theawardsconnection.com/home/2016/2/1/andrews-2015-oscar-predix

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    PJ Edwards
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    #217166

    I like my predicts of Sanjay, freedom, and Shok right now but will re-evaluate when I see them all on demand in a week. I’m tempted to predict Lauzman seems like it is very baity backstory and heard good things about Bear, but not ready to pull trigger yet.

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    AMG
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    #217167

    I’ve gone with World of Tomorrow, Day One and Body Team 12. I have no logic other than basing it off the titles and pictures attached to them in the centre (and when they were announced on noms morning). The ones which I like the sound of/find most interesting in the photo tend to get my predictions.

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    Damiansport1
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    #217168

    Last year i got 3/3 but it was easier. clear cut favs

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    Atypical
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    #217169

    Final Predictions: “Sanjay’s Super Team,” “Shok,” & “Body Team 12”

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    ColinWesley
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    #217170

    Body Team 12 has the most topical theme and is actually somewhat in the media at them moment. The director was on The Daily Show.

    That’s all I got…

    Sanjay….yeaaah it’s pixar which helps it..I remember we all went with Get a Horse and after Hublot won I just thought, “If I’d actually put any thought into that, and not just picked the disney short I might have considered hublot.”

    World of Tomorrow is brilliant but yeah, pretty weird and I think requires two viewings to really get below the surface. It stays with you though.

    I like your Bear Story thought. 

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #217171

    I’m going with World Of Tomorrow, Shok, and Chau Beyond The Lines. I could totally fail but I can see these three winning. Chau is probably the biggest question but it was my favorite and it’s the easiest to watch so I’ll give that the edge

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    Filmatelist
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    #217172

    The reason people are saying SANJAY for the win is that voters no longer have to certify that they’ve seen all 5 films at select screenings anymore.  It’s essentially the honor system based on their equal access to screeners.

    That’s why SANJAY has the upper hand because, by virtue of it actually appearing in the theaters, it will be the short that more Academy members have seen than any other.  The exact scenario played out for last year’s winner FEAST (also not the best, but certainly the most familiar).  

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    Damiansport1
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    #217173

    And why most people are picking Ave Maria in live action? Its comedy.
    Almost everybody is picking Body Team 12 in short document but i can see why, its very dark. these wins most of the time

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    GusCruz
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    #217174

    The reason people are saying SANJAY for the win is that voters no longer have to certify that they’ve seen all 5 films at select screenings anymore.  It’s essentially the honor system based on their equal access to screeners.

    That’s why SANJAY has the upper hand because, by virtue of it actually appearing in the theaters, it will be the short that more Academy members have seen than any other.  The exact scenario played out for last year’s winner FEAST (also not the best, but certainly the most familiar).  

    Unlike Feast, Sanjay was not shown before any of five animated feature nominees. It was shown before The Good Dinosaur, which was snubbed, so I don’t think it’s much of an advantage at all.

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    Jalal Haddad
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    #217175

    [quote=”Filmatelist”]

    The reason people are saying SANJAY for the win is that voters no longer have to certify that they’ve seen all 5 films at select screenings anymore.  It’s essentially the honor system based on their equal access to screeners.

    That’s why SANJAY has the upper hand because, by virtue of it actually appearing in the theaters, it will be the short that more Academy members have seen than any other.  The exact scenario played out for last year’s winner FEAST (also not the best, but certainly the most familiar).  

    Unlike Feast, Sanjay was not shown before any of five animated feature nominees. It was shown before The Good Dinosaur, which was snubbed, so I don’t think it’s much of an advantage at all.
    [/quote]

    In terms of screeners I don’t think that gives any short the upper hand. Is there any confirmation that the Academy screeners for the animated features have the shorts in front of them?

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    Jalal Haddad
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    #217176

    I usually do pretty well with the shorts categories because I actually watch the nominees and go with my favorite. I don’t usually go with my artistic favorite but rather the one that elicits the most emotional response.

    Live Action Short – I am predicting Shok to win because it’s the one I kept thinking about after I went to the screening, it was well made, and even though it is hard to watch it is most likely to appeal to a wide variety of Oscar voters. If other film wins it will be Stutterer because it is the apple in a bag of oranges. It is sweet and short compared to the heavy emotional nominees. With that being said it isn’t well made and feels less important. 

    Animated Short – I think there are a couple options but am going with Sanjay’s Super Team. The film had a clear arc and was touching, like Feast. Bear Story was the most beautiful visually and We Can’t Live Without Cosmos was also very touching. I thought World of Tomorrow was overrated and don’t see it being the dark horse contender that some are thinking it to be. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these four win. Prologue is the only one that I don’t think has a shot at winning.

    Documentary Short – The doc shorts aren’t playing in my area so I unfortunately have not seen all of them. Only Chau, Beyond The Lines and Last Day of Freedom are available to stream at the moment (Netflix). Before watching the shorts I was predicting Chau but after watching it I didn’t find it as interesting as it first looked. Last Day of Freedom is my current prediction and it would be a very worthy winner. In terms of American politics it is very relevant and the choice to take one long interview and animate it was very strong creatively. It was also very emotional. I strongly recommend it to anyone who has any interest in watching the doc shorts. I have A Girl in the River in my second place slot because the director has previously won in this category and the subject matter seems like something voters would gravitate towards. I don’t understand why most people are predicting Body Team 12. While it sounds interesting short docs don’t usually win and it is significantly shorter than the other nominees at 13 minutes.

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    Riley
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    #217177

    If voters are actually watching the shorts, Sanjay’s Super Team will not
    win.  But that is a big “if” because Pixar can sometimes carry
    something undeserved to a win just off of brand equity (Brave over PGA/Annie/Critics’
    Choice winner Wreck-It Ralph).  This has the
    added bonus of being multicultural.

    Bear Story reminded me of The Dam Keeper.  It has by far
    the best animation and it will really resonate with some people, but it did not
    quite hit the mark for me (and I predicted the accessible and entertaining Feast last year).  It would
    have been better without the framing device and just making the
    story-within-the-story the story; it had
    me questioning the meaning of the story and the physical logistics of itconfusing distractions for the art form.  Bear Story also does an interesting
    thing where it opens with laurels for every award and nomination that it has
    gotten, no matter how minor the film festival and I mean every single one of
    them.  Those screens beat you into submission, so people might vote for
    this one if they think that it is the “right” choice even if it does
    not fully work for them.

    Prologue was the shortest,
    opens in live-action, has male nudity and is violent, so it is an easy one to
    count out.  Plus it looks more like something that was made just to be a
    calling card to get actual work, so it has an unfinished quality, even if the
    hand drawings are a nice change of pace.

    We Can’t Live Without Cosmos is
    unremarkable and a solid fourth.  The animation looks like King of the Hill, which means that
    it does not push the boundaries in the form like some others, nor is it
    fashionably minimalist.  The story is similarly meh, being completely
    linear, going on a bit too long and asking profound questions without the
    follow-through of others in the category.  The characters are ostensibly
    Russian, but might as well be American and that is demonstrative of how plain
    it is.  Also unclear is the relationship between the protagonists. 
    Are they lovers?  Twins?  Lifelong buddies?  Again, unintended
    confusion should not be be a part of the animated short experience.

    I am predicting World of Tomorrow.  If they
    are voting for “most animation”, it loses because it is just stick
    people (and stick people not even drawn all that well, seeing as the younger
    protagonist more resembled an anthropomorphic pig).  But if they are
    voting for “most”, it wins.  It is both the longest nominee and
    I bet that it has more dialogue than even the live-action shorts that are twice
    as long.  It is just talk, talk, talk, like an Aaron Sorkin script. 
    Tonally though, The Lobster comes to mind, except I
    found this more successful.  It is profound and has a lot to ask about the
    human condition in the face of wealth inequality and technological advances,
    which also makes it a bit like Her (or that
    Justin Timberlake movie In Time, I
    guess).  Also notable is that World of Tomorrow
    defeated Sanjay’s Super Team at the Annies
    and the Annies love Disney/Pixar shorts, even awarding Get a Horse!

    The theatre also played a few other “highly commended” shorts,
    plus the Oscar-shortlisted If I Was God from
    Canada.  That film actually led the Gold Derby predictions center for a
    nomination, but I rightfully predicted its snub and the film was as I expected
    from the trailer.  I can see how it came from Canada with its casual
    knocks against religion and those who do not care for the environment. 
    But they also come out of nowhere, so the short comes across as needlessly
    angry.  I was reminded of how people find Michael Moore grating even when
    they agree with him.  Of course, the real reason that I predicted the snub
    was because the animation is ugly.  Being a stop-motion, it is much
    more technically proficient than some of the other entries, but they should
    have made it cute!

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    Damiansport1
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    #217178

    And why you are predicting Claude Lanzmann in short doc?

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