March 2, 2021 at 4:44 pm #1204077871
Here is the list of actors who got nominated at SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice but didn’t get an Oscar nomination that year for that film since 2001:
Cameron Diaz – Vanilla Sky – Supporting Actress
Paul Giamatti – Sideways – Lead Actor
Russell Crowe – Cinderella Man – Lead Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Departed – Lead Actor/Supporting Actor
Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl – Lead Actor
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart – Lead Actress
Mila Kunis – Black Swan – Supporting Actress
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar – Lead Actor
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin – Lead Actress
John Hawkes – The Sessions – Lead Actor
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone – Lead Actress
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips – Lead Actor
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks – Lead Actress
Daniel Bruhl – Rush – Supporting Actor
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler – Lead Actor
Jennifer Aniston – Cake – Lead Actress
Michael Shannon – 99 Homes – Supporting Actor
Helen Mirren – Trumbo – Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Arrival – Lead Actress
James Franco – The Disaster Artist – Lead Actor
Hong Chau – Downsizing – Supporting Actress
Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy – Supporting Actor
Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns – Lead Actress
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers – Supporting Actress
What actors do you think could get snubbed at the Oscars despite getting nominations at SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice this year?March 2, 2021 at 4:51 pm #1204077881
I have a strange feeling it will be Vanessa KirbyMarch 2, 2021 at 4:52 pm #1204077883
Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close and Gary Oldman are the only possibilities, in my opinion.
It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!March 2, 2021 at 4:53 pm #1204077890
It’ll be Glenn Close this year.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.March 2, 2021 at 4:54 pm #1204077895
Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Vanessa Kirby and Gary Oldman are all possible.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")March 2, 2021 at 5:05 pm #1204077915
Kirby seems like strong enough because no one gives that BOLD performance in the lineup, even the likelier to win doesn’t give the way she gives. The film is quite popular (more than MRBB) and her birthing onscreen sounds groundbreaking enough to give her an extra boost. Netflix’ campaign package is also very eye-catching.
Now she’s on top of my list. No other performance in the bubble can replace hers in terms of passion. No Pike (too genre), Loren (too supporting), Winslet (too quite) or Adams (too mediocre)
By the way, Wolfali, why don’t you add BAFTA in the title? I mean she’s probably getting that nomination.March 2, 2021 at 5:06 pm #1204077918
Gary Oldman is still extremely unlikely to miss imo. His film and role are so Oscary that he’s a near-certain nominee now he’s landing at all the precursors; it would feel very backward were he to miss. He even got into SAG despite the two huge snubs for Mank there.
Snubs for Close, Bakalova and to a lesser extent Kirby are all possible, although the harrowing and sympathetic nature of Kirby’s role again makes it hard for me to imagine her missing.March 2, 2021 at 5:12 pm #1204077944
Y’all hate Close.March 2, 2021 at 5:16 pm #1204077953
Out of this list, the ones who hurt the most are Gosling and Swinton… Both Oscar-worthy performances by miles.
(yeah I know DDL was always winning in 2008 but Gosling was also really deserving imo, in a very very different role)March 2, 2021 at 5:20 pm #1204077965
It’s really interesting to see actors like Jennifer Lopez, James Franco, Mila Kunis, Jennifer Aniston and Cameron Diaz here. They are all comedic actors and populist stars. James Franco is the only one who received an Oscar nomination before. It’s the kind of profile the Academy looks down on, like Jim Carrey, Eddie Murphy and Bill Murray.
Bakalova, I’m looking at you. Especially if you also consider Hong Chau, who has a similarity with Bakalova, like being a non-american breakthrough.
On the other hand, you have Tilda Swinton, Jake Gyllenhaal, Amy Adams, Marion Cotillard, Michael Shannon, who are well respected among industry but their movies aren’t what the Academy goes for in terms of tone. Vanessa Kirby may fit in here, although she isn’t really that big.
And there’s Tom Hanks and Amy Adams again in movies good enough to be nominated at full picture (Picture, Screenplay, Director, etc) but that didn’t impress the acting branch. Gary Oldman for Mank ?
Ryan Gosling, Paul Giamatti, Marion Cotillard and Michael Shannon were given an apology later on. Gosling was nominated for Half Nelson, Giamatti was nominated for Cinderella Man, Cotillard was nominated for Two Days One Night and Shannon for Nocturnal Animals.
I believe Kirby, Oldman and Bakalova are the ones with chance to miss, with Bakalova being the most obvious pick.March 2, 2021 at 5:34 pm #1204078000
The problem with Gary Oldman is I can see Tahar Rahim being the Ruth Negga to his Amy Adams. Oldman is in a film that will be nominated for Best Picture and will do well in directing (nomination) and technicals but he’s starting off 4th at best and with the potential of a contender building up momentum as the televised awards go on and more films are seen he could miss.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")March 2, 2021 at 5:36 pm #1204078007
I have a feeling Gary Oldman will miss. Hoping Delroy Lindo make the Oscar nominationMarch 2, 2021 at 5:40 pm #1204078022
Kirby easy call here.
Oldman too since no1curr about mank, passion but not loved.
Mulligan since MTV movies dont do well at oscar- see Gone Girl and that had Fincher!
I hope Bakalova makes it but she may end up here tooMarch 2, 2021 at 5:45 pm #1204078037
It’s always more likely (not always) to be snubbed when you are the only potential nominee of your film. So I guess the most likely are Bakalova, Kirby and Close.
Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)March 2, 2021 at 5:54 pm #1204078065
Bakalova, Kirby, Close and Oldman.
I really think Bakalova will miss. I’m a bit confident about that prediction. Her Golden Globe snub is already a sign.
I’ll probably predict her until the end, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Kirby misses. She’s now 5th after Day GG win, and she’s in a film with little to no chance in other categories. Adams or Pike would take her spot. My money is on Adams.
I would be surprised if it’s Close. She could still win and there seems to be some passion for HE among actors.
The least likely to be snubbed in my opinion is Oldman. He’s a veteran who won recently and his film is going to lead the nominations count.
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