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December 30, 2016 at 1:56 pm #1201977536
No guts, no glory. Go for it. Which Oscar longshot could actually pull off a jawdropper in a top category?
ReplyDecember 30, 2016 at 2:20 pm #1201977540No one. The acting categories are locked with respect to who will win. Portman is winning unless Bening actually makes the final five and pulls off a Hillary Clinton loss so you don’t have to. Washington and Affleck could be a nail biter if the precursors don’t all go for just one of them.
ReplyCopy URLDecember 30, 2016 at 2:40 pm #1201977544This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 30, 2016 at 3:06 pm #1201977549This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 30, 2016 at 3:26 pm #1201977555This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 30, 2016 at 3:38 pm #1201977565No one. The acting categories are locked with respect to who will win. Portman is winning unless Bening actually makes the final five and pulls off a Hillary Clinton loss so you don’t have to. Washington and Affleck could be a nail biter if the precursors don’t all go for just one of them.
Bening isn’t a dark horse to win anything.
ReplyCopy URLDecember 30, 2016 at 3:58 pm #1201977574You’re likelier to see an upset when those earlier precursors are split different ways — last year you had Elba winning SAG, Rylance winning BAFTA and Stallone the Globe (the one without significant overlapping Academy members). So Stallone always felt vulnerable though he was considered the frontrunner.
Actor seems most open to be split between the BAFTA/Globe/SAG. Casey’s basically run the board on the critics’ circuit, but Denzel’s film just opened well in wide release at the moment a lot of voters are making up their minds. I also think we underestimate Hacksaw Ridge’s wide appeal, anchored by Andrew’s performance, whether or not the online discourse wants to will Hacksaw Ridge out of the race.
A much smaller possibility growing in my fantasies is Huppert upsetting for the Globe and/or BAFTA, and angling herself as the spoiler.
ReplyCopy URLDecember 30, 2016 at 4:27 pm #1201977580This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 30, 2016 at 4:44 pm #1201977585Well hopefully none of them are undeserving like he was. Maybe Patel or Bridges? Grant?
ReplyCopy URLDecember 30, 2016 at 5:54 pm #1201977597If it’s going to happen, I think it’ll be Supporting Actor again. Supporting Actress is sewn up and Actor and Actress are two-person races. Ali’s extremely impressive, and voters will want to honor Moonlight, but the fact is it’s a small role confined to the first act of the movie. I could see a scenario where Ali wins most key precursors, attains lock status within pundit circles, but then Patel or Hedges sneaks up for the Oscar win.
ReplyCopy URLDecember 30, 2016 at 6:03 pm #1201977602I can see Patel winning the Globe and BAFTA. He could be a serious dark horse.
ReplyCopy URLDecember 30, 2016 at 6:07 pm #1201977604This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 30, 2016 at 6:13 pm #1201977610Amy Adams or Annette Bening in Best Actress.
Hugh Grant or Dev Patel in Supporting Actor.Davis has Supporting Actress on lock. And its Affleck v. Washington for Actor.
Dev Patel excepted, we’re not even sure any of those people will get nominated in the first place.
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