Oscar Spoiler: Who could be this year's Mark Rylance?

[Tom O’NeilKeymaster Joined: May 13th, 2011 Topics: 846 Posts: 666 View Predictions]

#1201977536

No guts, no glory. Go for it. Which Oscar longshot could actually pull off a jawdropper in a top category?

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[M: The OriginalParticipant Joined: Aug 5th, 2014 Topics: 40 Posts: 4503 View Predictions]

#1201977540

No one. The acting categories are locked with respect to who will win. Portman is winning unless Bening actually makes the final five and pulls off a Hillary Clinton loss so you don’t have to. Washington and Affleck could be a nail biter if the precursors don’t all go for just one of them.

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[EmmyWinnerParticipant Joined: Apr 28th, 2016 Topics: 2 Posts: 766 View Predictions]

#1201977544

M: The Original wrote:

No one. The acting categories are locked with respect to who will win. Portman is winning unless Bening actually makes the final five and pulls off a Hillary Clinton loss so you don’t have to. Washington and Affleck could be a nail biter if the precursors don’t all go for just one of them.

Tell that to Stallone.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 104 Posts: 5254 View Predictions]

#1201977549

If Henson get some nomination I will predict  her.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 22 Posts: 3100 View Predictions]

#1201977555

Henson isn’t happening. Seriously guys, stop with this nonsense.

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[BeeParticipant Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 17 Posts: 3491 View Predictions]

#1201977565

M: The Original wrote:

No one. The acting categories are locked with respect to who will win. Portman is winning unless Bening actually makes the final five and pulls off a Hillary Clinton loss so you don’t have to. Washington and Affleck could be a nail biter if the precursors don’t all go for just one of them.

Bening isn’t a dark horse to win anything.

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[PJ EdwardsParticipant Joined: Jun 2nd, 2011 Topics: 9 Posts: 2364 View Predictions]

#1201977572

AMY ADAMS

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1273 View Predictions]

#1201977574

You’re likelier to see an upset when those earlier precursors are split different ways — last year you had Elba winning SAG, Rylance winning BAFTA and Stallone the Globe (the one without significant overlapping Academy members). So Stallone always felt vulnerable though he was considered the frontrunner.

Actor seems most open to be split between the BAFTA/Globe/SAG. Casey’s basically run the board on the critics’ circuit, but Denzel’s film just opened well in wide release at the moment a lot of voters are making up their minds. I also think we underestimate Hacksaw Ridge’s wide appeal, anchored by Andrew’s performance, whether or not the online discourse wants to will Hacksaw Ridge out of the race.

A much smaller possibility growing in my fantasies is Huppert upsetting for the Globe and/or BAFTA, and angling herself as the spoiler.

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[TeridaxParticipant Joined: Dec 12th, 2014 Topics: 78 Posts: 11098 View Predictions]

#1201977580

Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins

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[BeeParticipant Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 17 Posts: 3491 View Predictions]

#1201977585

Well hopefully none of them are undeserving like he was. Maybe Patel or Bridges? Grant?

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[marceloParticipant Joined: Nov 24th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 368 View Predictions]

#1201977594

Naomi Harris/Michelle Williams

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[MaxwellParticipant Joined: Jan 27th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 189 View Predictions]

#1201977597

If it’s going to happen, I think it’ll be Supporting Actor again. Supporting Actress is sewn up and Actor and Actress are two-person races. Ali’s extremely impressive, and voters will want to honor Moonlight, but the fact is it’s a small role confined to the first act of the movie. I could see a scenario where Ali wins most key precursors, attains lock status within pundit circles, but then Patel or Hedges sneaks up for the Oscar win.

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[GusCruzParticipant Joined: Feb 26th, 2012 Topics: 53 Posts: 13323 View Predictions]

#1201977602

I can see Patel winning the Globe and BAFTA. He could be a serious dark horse.

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[JBParticipant Joined: Jul 13th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 647 View Predictions]

#1201977604

Amy Adams or Annette Bening in Best Actress.
Hugh Grant or Dev Patel in Supporting Actor.

Davis has Supporting Actress on lock. And its Affleck v. Washington for Actor.

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[MaxwellParticipant Joined: Jan 27th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 189 View Predictions]

#1201977610

JB wrote:

Amy Adams or Annette Bening in Best Actress.
Hugh Grant or Dev Patel in Supporting Actor.

Davis has Supporting Actress on lock. And its Affleck v. Washington for Actor.

Dev Patel excepted, we’re not even sure any of those people will get nominated in the first place.

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