Oscar Spoiler: Who could be this year's Mark Rylance?

[Tom O'Neil Joined: May 13th, 2011 Topics: 886 Posts: 686 View Predictions]

#1201977536

No guts, no glory. Go for it. Which Oscar longshot could actually pull off a jawdropper in a top category?

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[M: The Original Joined: Aug 5th, 2014 Topics: 61 Posts: 6689 View Predictions]

#1201977540

No one. The acting categories are locked with respect to who will win. Portman is winning unless Bening actually makes the final five and pulls off a Hillary Clinton loss so you don’t have to. Washington and Affleck could be a nail biter if the precursors don’t all go for just one of them.

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 2 Posts: 1106 View Predictions]

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 104 Posts: 5226 View Predictions]

#1201977549

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 27 Posts: 3064 View Predictions]

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[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 26 Posts: 5220 View Predictions]

#1201977565

M: The Original wrote:

No one. The acting categories are locked with respect to who will win. Portman is winning unless Bening actually makes the final five and pulls off a Hillary Clinton loss so you don’t have to. Washington and Affleck could be a nail biter if the precursors don’t all go for just one of them.

Bening isn’t a dark horse to win anything.

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[JackO Joined: Jun 2nd, 2011 Topics: 13 Posts: 5504 View Predictions]

#1201977572

AMY ADAMS

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[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1496 View Predictions]

#1201977574

You’re likelier to see an upset when those earlier precursors are split different ways — last year you had Elba winning SAG, Rylance winning BAFTA and Stallone the Globe (the one without significant overlapping Academy members). So Stallone always felt vulnerable though he was considered the frontrunner.

Actor seems most open to be split between the BAFTA/Globe/SAG. Casey’s basically run the board on the critics’ circuit, but Denzel’s film just opened well in wide release at the moment a lot of voters are making up their minds. I also think we underestimate Hacksaw Ridge’s wide appeal, anchored by Andrew’s performance, whether or not the online discourse wants to will Hacksaw Ridge out of the race.

A much smaller possibility growing in my fantasies is Huppert upsetting for the Globe and/or BAFTA, and angling herself as the spoiler.

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 102 Posts: 12646 View Predictions]

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[Bee Joined: Oct 25th, 2016 Topics: 26 Posts: 5220 View Predictions]

#1201977585

Well hopefully none of them are undeserving like he was. Maybe Patel or Bridges? Grant?

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[marcelo Joined: Nov 24th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 451 View Predictions]

#1201977594

Naomi Harris/Michelle Williams

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[Maxwell Joined: Jan 27th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 184 View Predictions]

#1201977597

If it’s going to happen, I think it’ll be Supporting Actor again. Supporting Actress is sewn up and Actor and Actress are two-person races. Ali’s extremely impressive, and voters will want to honor Moonlight, but the fact is it’s a small role confined to the first act of the movie. I could see a scenario where Ali wins most key precursors, attains lock status within pundit circles, but then Patel or Hedges sneaks up for the Oscar win.

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[GusCruz Joined: Feb 26th, 2012 Topics: 54 Posts: 13347 View Predictions]

#1201977602

I can see Patel winning the Globe and BAFTA. He could be a serious dark horse.

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 1 Posts: 807 View Predictions]

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[Maxwell Joined: Jan 27th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 184 View Predictions]

#1201977610

wrote:

Amy Adams or Annette Bening in Best Actress.
Hugh Grant or Dev Patel in Supporting Actor.

Davis has Supporting Actress on lock. And its Affleck v. Washington for Actor.

Dev Patel excepted, we’re not even sure any of those people will get nominated in the first place.

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