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By the time I’m writing this, the last film I watched was Noah Baumbach’s Frances Ha (2012), which I thought it was a wonderful movie that displays beautifully Greta Gerwig’s true talent both as an actress and a writer. It’s a character-driven study portraying a woman lost in her own life and it made me think about the poetry and uniqueness of indie cinema. Fortunately, over the years, the Academy has been recognizing that type of low-budget pictures, at least by nominating them. Richard Linklater’s epic indie film Boyhood (2014) didn’t win Best Picture, but last year we had a nice surprise with Moonlight (2016). Is the Academy really becoming less conservative? Will those days of historical period dramas and biography movies winning wildly top awards be over?
Yes, there are plenty of independent movies that are nominated this year, however I suppose Lady Bird (features very personal filmmaking) and Call Me by Your Name (positively plotless) are the most simple and realistic ones.
So, will the Academy recognize the simplicity of a smaller project this year? Lady Bird benefits from the women representation aspect and it can surprisingly win Best Original Screenplay, which can lead to the Best Picture winning. Call Me by Your Name is almost guaranteed to win Best Adapted, so it’s a contender.
What do you think?
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This topic was modified 9 months, 4 weeks ago by
AlexVieira.
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This topic was modified 9 months, 4 weeks ago by
According to those who only watch the televised shows the answer is no If you take a look at the overall picture of the entire precursor season Best Picture would be a wide open race. 3BB and TSOW are not heads over heels the best two movies by a long shot. Also Gary Oldman would not be a lock.
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This reply was modified 9 months, 4 weeks ago by
Thomas Eagan.
CMBYN isn’t a BP contender dude. It was snubbed for Directing, Film Editing, Supporting Actor x2, and for “Visions of Gideon” in Song. It is dead on arrival as far as Best Picture is concerned. Besides, everyone knows Timothee Chalamet isn’t beating Gary Oldman, so why would the movie win Picture if the acclaimed breakout star loses? It winning the Oscar for Adapted Screenplay will be where all the fans of the film will coalesce to make sure it goes down in history as an “Oscar-winning film.”
This thread should be called “The Shape of Water” vs “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” for Best Picture, since it seems more obvious than ever that those are the only 2 films left that can realistically win at this stage in the race. I think Get Out’s victory at WGA is easily and sadly negated by the fact Three Billboards was ineligible and probably would have won had it not been for McDonagh not being a WGA member.
I think everyone knows by know Lady Bird isn’t winning any Oscars. It got shut out at SAG and lost WGA to Get Out. It got snubbed for Picture and Director at Bafta, snubbed for Director at the Globes, won nothing at the Critics’ Choice Awards, and even the Indie Spirits snubbed Gerwig’s Directing. I’m calling it like it is, Original Screenplay is strictly between Three Billboards and Get Out from this point on.
@thomaseagan “3BB and TSOW are not heads over heels the best two movies by a long shot.” Not the best in your eyes, but in the eyes of many in the industry they clearly are, going off of SAG, PGA, DGA, and the Bafta nominations.
ReplyCopy URLNote to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!
Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.
I think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.
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This reply was modified 9 months, 4 weeks ago by
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This reply was modified 9 months, 4 weeks ago by
Call Me by Your Name may survive more rounds of voting than we think, but it’s not strong enough to win.
I think it’ll be the first or second film out in the voting process, tbh.
We have our obvious 3 frontrunners (TSOW, TBOEM, GO). Straight white men will rally around Dunkirk and Darkest Hour, while Lady Bird will draw strong support from women. Phantom Thread will be bolstered by the Brits, who helped it overperform in nominations.
That leaves CMBYN in 8th place, unless DH / PT don’t garner as much support as I think they will.
ReplyCopy URLI think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.
Hey, i care!
ReplyCopy URLCall Me by Your Name may survive more rounds of voting than we think, but it’s not strong enough to win.
I think it’ll be the first or second film out in the voting process, tbh.
We have our obvious 3 frontrunners (TSOW, TBOEM, GO). Straight white men will rally around Dunkirk and Darkest Hour, while Lady Bird will draw strong support from women. Phantom Thread will be bolstered by the Brits, who helped it overperform in nominations.
That leaves CMBYN in 8th place, unless DH / PT don’t garner as much support as I think they will.
Um, I am a straight white man and Dunkirk is my 2nd least behind of the nominees (The Post was the most forgettable and worst for me) while Darkest Hour wouldn’t make my Top 5. I liked Darkest Hour okay enough, but Phantom Thread, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards were superior in my opinion. Also, not all women love Lady Bird. I know one in particular who thinks it is overrated. If Brits love Phantom Thread so much, why did it get snubbed for Picture and Director at Bafta unlike the Oscars? It seems Oscar voters liked the PTA/DDL film more than the British Film Academy. I think most people outside of these awards forums don’t even remember CMBYN exists. The film really seemed to fade in hype and buzz once Oscar nominations were announced.
ReplyCopy URLNote to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!
Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.
I think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.
Speak for yourself….
I obviously liked your comment by accident. Lol
ReplyCopy URLI think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.
I agree, Gold Derby hasn’t been pretty slow lately. It seems the majority of people think 3BB and TSOW are going to sweep, myself included. It’s what everyone was saying back in November but then December came along and we got a few surprises here and there reviving the Oscar race. Then January came and all but confirmed the original frontrunner predictions.
My mind is more focused on the 2019 Oscars.
ReplyCopy URLI think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.
You’re right, Thomas. Things have pretty much slowed down on the forums since then. Most people aren’t excited about the race anymore. This is why I hate sweepers, they take all the excitement away.
ReplyCopy URLI think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.
You’re right, Thomas. Things have pretty much slowed down on the forums since then. Most people aren’t excited about the race anymore. This is why I hate sweepers, they take all the excitement away.
Nobody has swept yet. Just all the so called experts here think they have 🙂
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