Oscars 2018: "Lady Bird" or "Call Me by Your Name" winning Best Picture

[AlexVieira]

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By the time I’m writing this, the last film I watched was Noah Baumbach’s Frances Ha (2012), which I thought it was a wonderful movie that displays beautifully Greta Gerwig’s true talent both as an actress and a writer. It’s a character-driven study portraying a woman lost in her own life and it made me think about the poetry and uniqueness of indie cinema. Fortunately, over the years, the Academy has been recognizing that type of low-budget pictures, at least by nominating them. Richard Linklater’s epic indie film Boyhood (2014) didn’t win Best Picture, but last year we had a nice surprise with Moonlight (2016). Is the Academy really becoming less conservative? Will those days of historical period dramas and biography movies winning wildly top awards be over?

Yes, there are plenty of independent movies that are nominated this year, however I suppose Lady Bird (features very personal filmmaking) and Call Me by Your Name (positively plotless) are the most simple and realistic ones.

So, will the Academy recognize the simplicity of a smaller project this year? Lady Bird benefits from the women representation aspect and it can surprisingly win Best Original Screenplay, which can lead to the Best Picture winning. Call Me by Your Name is almost guaranteed to win Best Adapted, so it’s a contender.

What do you think?

• This topic was modified 2 years, 7 months ago by AlexVieira.
• This topic was modified 2 years, 7 months ago by AlexVieira.

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[Lord Freddy Blackfyre Joined: Nov 3rd, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 2528 View Predictions]

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Nope

The Oscar needs to get rid of the preferential ballot so it can name a deserving movie as Best Picture again.

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[Thomas Eagan]

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According to those who only watch the televised shows the answer is no If you take a look at the overall picture of the entire precursor season Best Picture would be a wide open race. 3BB and TSOW are not heads over heels the best two movies by a long shot. Also Gary Oldman would not be a lock.

• This reply was modified 2 years, 7 months ago by Thomas Eagan.

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 102 Posts: 12646 View Predictions]

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This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

[kbfr12 Joined: Oct 12th, 2012 Topics: 4 Posts: 349 View Predictions]

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Call Me by Your Name may survive more rounds of voting than we think, but it’s not strong enough to win.

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[Thomas Eagan]

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I think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.

• This reply was modified 2 years, 7 months ago by Thomas Eagan.
• This reply was modified 2 years, 7 months ago by Thomas Eagan.

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[TheRedBoy Joined: Jan 22nd, 2013 Topics: 2 Posts: 531 View Predictions]

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kbfr12 wrote:

Call Me by Your Name may survive more rounds of voting than we think, but it’s not strong enough to win.

I think it’ll be the first or second film out in the voting process, tbh.

We have our obvious 3 frontrunners (TSOW, TBOEM, GO). Straight white men will rally around Dunkirk and Darkest Hour, while Lady Bird will draw strong support from women. Phantom Thread will be bolstered by the Brits, who helped it overperform in nominations.

That leaves CMBYN in 8th place, unless DH / PT don’t garner as much support as I think they will.

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[unown Joined: Mar 28th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 458 View Predictions]

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thomaseagan wrote:

I think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.

Hey, i care!

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 102 Posts: 12646 View Predictions]

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 2 Posts: 1106 View Predictions]

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[xrated48 Joined: Jan 6th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 85 View Predictions]

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I wish Lady Bird would win but that’s not happening. It’s either between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri or The Shape of Water.

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[Noah Arlington Joined: Nov 24th, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 456 View Predictions]

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thomaseagan wrote:

I think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.

I agree, Gold Derby hasn’t been pretty slow lately. It seems the majority of people think 3BB and TSOW are going to sweep, myself included. It’s what everyone was saying back in November but then December came along and we got a few surprises here and there reviving the Oscar race. Then January came and all but confirmed the original frontrunner predictions.

My mind is more focused on the 2019 Oscars.

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[AlexVieira Joined: Jan 22nd, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 29 View Predictions]

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This topic is about a hypothesis. Personally, I’m predicting 3B to win Best Picture. But, who knows?

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[lorelei lor Joined: Dec 20th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 232 View Predictions]

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thomaseagan wrote:

I think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.

You’re right, Thomas. Things have pretty much slowed down on the forums since then. Most people aren’t excited about the race anymore. This is why I hate sweepers, they take all the excitement away.

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[Thomas Eagan Joined: Jan 2nd, 2015 Topics: 17 Posts: 440 View Predictions]

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lorelei_lor wrote:

Thomas Eagan wrote:

I think Goldderby has been pretty much a ghost town since 3BB and TSOW have become the favorites. These boards would be lighting up if more folks thought Get Out or CMBYN had a good chance to win Best Picture and Timothee had a better shot. Nobody cares who is winning Best Actress.

You’re right, Thomas. Things have pretty much slowed down on the forums since then. Most people aren’t excited about the race anymore. This is why I hate sweepers, they take all the excitement away.

Nobody has swept yet. Just all the so called experts here think they have 🙂

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