February 15, 2018 at 5:39 am #1202494287
Okay, I have been thinking about this a lot since the nominations came out.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was coming strong, but the Directing snub, as well as the backlash the film faced (which is not La La Land-sized, but still), make me feel like it is not going to win Best Picture. (And thank Gods for that.)
The Shape of Water is a film that could win, but probably won’t – for one, it’s science fiction. And not the Lord of the Rings kind of loved science-fiction adaptations & technical masterpieces. It’s a science-fiction love story that chooses a troubling time to be placed at, all things considered (the film is set in the 1960’s, but the characters make it feel more like 2018), and which, while visually beautiful, is not the greatest technical achievement of 2018. (I’m sorry,
Blade Runner 2049 can’t come on the phone right now.)
The preferential ballot is going to hurt these two nominees, leaving the race open for three other films to give them a run for their money – Dunkirk, Get Out & Lady Bird.
(NOTE: In this year’s Best Picture race, my personal favourite is Call Me By Your Name. But, in order to be realistic, I did not include it in this thread. Let’s face it, only GoldDerby users are still thinking that it could win anything more than Adapted Screenplay, despite the fact that Chalamet gave the second-best male leading performance this year, its direction and cinematography were offensively underrated and Sufjan Stevens wrote two of the most mesmerizing songs in recent memory.)
When it comes to Dunkirk, the issue is difficult. Past overwhelming favorite settling for a few technical awards, probably. Does it deserve Achievement in Directing over The Shape of Water? Abso-f***ing-lutely. Does it deserve Best Picture, though? Probably not. Academy Awards, as most award shows do, want to reward a film with actual emotions and stories. Ask the cinematic marvel Gravity, which won, not one, not two, but four Academy Awards more than that year’s Best Picture. It has to get all the technical #1 votes in the Best Picture ballot, in order to usurp the favorites, and were it a year when it was the sole film with heavy effects, it could have a chance. Unfortunately, it is not.
Get Out: the most inventive film of the year. The attention to detail is stunning, and it would be a worthy Best Picture winner, would it win. But can it? Its recent triumph in WGA make it the Original Screenplay frontrunner, which is my vote as well, but with just four nominations and no editing nomination, can it become another Spotlight? Is the issue of race still on the mass voters’ mind, or are they still on the 12 Years A Slave high?
IMO, the Academy voters that shape the race (a.k.a the people that vote what they think they should, rather than what they want, and what actually deserves to win) still believe that awarding 12 Years A Slave and coming back off of two years of #OscarsSoWhite, makes them good voters. Therefore, it is now the ladies’ turn to get their fair share.
Lady Bird which, as of the writing of this post, is not a favorite in any categories, has the narrative – by a woman, with women, about women. This season has been rough for female filmmakers and rewarding the one who has it rough seems to be the norm with the Academy, rewarding something else every year. Plus – it’s a very good film, so what gives?
Now, the preferential ballot, while I predict will reward Get Out, might reward Lady Bird, which in this case, will become the fourth film to win the Academy Award for Best Picture only, the first since Mutiny On The Bounty did the same in the 8th Academy Awards.
February 15, 2018 at 9:52 pm #1202494789
- This topic was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by Grigorakis.
From my informal survey Lady Bird seems to really be getting the push. The three women were just on the cover of Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar edition and on some other magazine too.
I just have a hunch that it will surprise somewhere with Metcalf, Ronan, Gerwig or the film itself sneaking in.
A film by a woman about women….that could be very potent this year.February 15, 2018 at 10:06 pm #1202494799
I don’t see it happening. Surely if Lady Bird were to win BP it would at least be able to get a screenplay win, and after losing wga to get out I don’t see that happening. I don’t think Get Out can win either, it certainly is also divisive on some level, it’s a genre film, it underperformed at Globes and Bafta, and it very possibly could have lost WGA if 3BB was eligible.February 15, 2018 at 10:45 pm #1202494829
The three women were just on the cover of Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar edition and on some other magazine too.
Well, case closed then.
Surely if Lady Bird were to win BP it would at least be able to get a screenplay win, and after losing wga to get out I don’t see that happening.
This and you would think that it would have been able to win a SAG Award instead of losing its races to different films. It also has less of an excuse than Get Out for missing a Best Film nomination at BAFTA.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."
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