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Oscars 2018 Nominations Predictions (Part 7)

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  • Elazul
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    Since 2007, at least one performer not nominated for a GG or SAG was nominated for the Oscar. This year, I’m thinking Michael Stuhlbarg will take that spot.

    Didn’t it happen with Michael Shannon twice? That should make him the frontrunner of this.

    Spenser Davis
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    I think I might be alone, but I feel that the Best Picture winner will be between Coco and Lady Bird.

    Most people don’t even seem to be considering Coco for a BP nom, and you think it could be competing for the win? That’s bold. (I mean this in a good way!).

    I think it’ll be Lady Bird v. Three Billboards, with The Post and Mudbound having an outside chance. But a Mudbound BP win can only happen if it beats CMBYN for Adapted Screenplay, and I really don’t want that to happen as it’s likely the only chance CMBYN has for a win.

    A Get Out win could happen if Peele and Kaluuya both snatch noms, too.

    I can’t see Dunkirk or Shape of Water winning Best Picture. I think the first one is an achievement, but its technical feats overwhelm its story. The latter… it might just be too much to think that a merman love story will take the Big One this year.

    On the other hand, the three flicks you mentioned above all tap into an intersection of relevance and achievement. In a year where Merriam-Webster’s Word of the Year is “feminism,” Lady Bird’s story of a mother and daughter might hit the spot. Going bigger and louder, Three Billboards features a kickass woman tearing through town in her crusade against cops and (one might argue) men in general, only to end of a note that is by design less confident, more morally grey. And of course, there’s The Post, in which the press fights a government that threatens to take them to court. I mean, come on. Any of those three could get to the top and I’d understand. But I cannot imagine anyone else winning. Not at this moment, anyway.

    SN
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    #1202439431

    Everything big contender this year missed at least one long time stat:

    – 3 Billboards missed NBR Top 10
    – Lady Bird missed Best Director GG
    – The Shape of Water missed SAG Ensemble nom and NBR Top 10
    – CMBYN missed SAG Ensemble nom, and Best Director and Best Screenplay noms at GG
    – The Post missed SAG Ensemble nom
    – Dunkirk missed SAG Ensemble nom and Best Screenplay nom at GG
    – Get Out missed Best Director and Best Screenplay noms at GG

    Considering SAG Ensemble is easily the most important and unbreakable stat, 3 Billboards, Get Out or Lady Bird will win BP. I’m predicting 3B because it missed the less important stat and performed very well and better than expected at the GG and SAG.

    Eddy Q
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    #1202439438

    Since 2007, at least one performer not nominated for a GG or SAG was nominated for the Oscar. This year, I’m thinking Michael Stuhlbarg will take that spot.

    Didn’t it happen with Michael Shannon twice? That should make him the frontrunner of this.

    I think the difference this time is that Shannon has co-star in the same category who is an almost certain nominee, which makes it especially difficult for him to break through. Whereas last year Shannon’s co-star didn’t get a SAG nom, wasn’t in a Best Picture contender, as well as being a lot younger and giving a divisive performance, despite the Globe win and BAFTA nom. Shannon’s critics choice nom also might have helped. (True, he didn’t get that for Revolutionary Road but that movie was snubbed across the board with that group and the category was weak for alternatives.)

    Bee
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    #1202439638

    CMBYN gets 5 noms, including Picture and Stuhlbarg. And it’ll still indefinitely win Adapted  Screenplay.

    TheRedBoy
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    CMBYN gets 5 noms, including Picture and Stuhlbarg. And it’ll still indefinitely win Adapted Screenplay.

    I can’t see how it gets 5 noms, including BP and Stuhlbarg, unless you think that Luca is getting snubbed of Best Director and Stuhlbarg is getting in over Hammer.

    I’d say that 6 nominations is the floor for CMBYN, with the potential for up to 8.

    Picture
    Director
    Actor
    Supp Actor
    Screenplay
    Song
    +
    Supp Actor #2
    Cinematography

    8 noms is probably too optimistic, but fellow gay films Milk, Brokeback Mountain, The Imitation Game, and Moonlight all scored 8 nominations (and all won for screenplay). James Ivory’s A Room With A View and The Remains of the Day also both recieved 8 noms (ARWAV won screenplay). I think that 8 noms, with a screenplay win, would be very appropriate for an Ivory-written gay film. I don’t think it’ll happen, but I want it.

    PreludeinCSharpMinor
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    #1202439680

    Streep is still a threat. There is no clear front-runner. McDormand, Ronan and Hawkins and bouncing around prediction and Meryl could surge past. The Post will be in with many nominations, as will Phantom Thread.

    Miles
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    #1202439710

    Under normal circumstances, this would eliminate Streep from the win. But she’s Streep and the film released late. If Hanks and ensemble were nominated and Streep was not I’d be worried. But this means that Streep HAS to win the Golden Globe and BAFTA. She has no chance of winning CC over Hawkins, McDormand, and Ronan. It’s going to be hard for her to keep momentum if she just wins the Globe. She needs the BAFTA too if she’s going to win the Oscar.

    Bee
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    #1202439731

    Under normal circumstances, this would eliminate Streep from the win. But she’s Streep and the film released late. If Hanks and ensemble were nominated and Streep was not I’d be worried. But this means that Streep HAS to win the Golden Globe and BAFTA. She has no chance of winning CC over Hawkins, McDormand, and Ronan. It’s going to be hard for her to keep momentum if she just wins the Globe. She needs the BAFTA too if she’s going to win the Oscar.

    What needs to happen is The Post needs to do well in theatres. If it smashes, then she can for sure win the Globe. CC I don’t see her winning, yeah but I also can’t see The Post losing all 8 of its nominations there. If she wins, it’ll be in a tie.

     

    Bee
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    #1202439735

    CMBYN gets 5 noms, including Picture and Stuhlbarg. And it’ll still indefinitely win Adapted Screenplay.

    I can’t see how it gets 5 noms, including BP and Stuhlbarg, unless you think that Luca is getting snubbed of Best Director and Stuhlbarg is getting in over Hammer. I’d say that 6 nominations is the floor for CMBYN, with the potential for up to 8. Picture Director Actor Supp Actor Screenplay Song + Supp Actor #2 Cinematography 8 noms is probably too optimistic, but fellow gay films Milk, Brokeback Mountain, The Imitation Game, and Moonlight all scored 8 nominations (and all won for screenplay). James Ivory’s A Room With A View and The Remains of the Day also both recieved 8 noms (ARWAV won screenplay). I think that 8 noms, with a screenplay win, would be very appropriate for an Ivory-written gay film. I don’t think it’ll happen, but I want it.

    I think he can get snubbed. And I also think Armie won’t make it in now.  The film has underperformed at the guilds so far and it shows that they don’t love it like we thought they would have with the exception of Chalamet. Even Carol did better.

    JackO
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    #1202439749

    I think The Post’s snub today at the SAG Awards probably helps it, instead of hurting it. It gives the film a little underdog status to pull off the big win in Best Picture, which it needed. Otherwise, on paper it looks like pure Oscar bait. Now people can talk about how the great Meryl and her all-star cast were snubbed and get them to want to right that “wrong” with nominations at the Oscars.

    The way I see the race as of right now:

    Best Picture:
    1. The Post (similar to Spotlight or The King’s Speech win)
    2. Three Billboards… (similar to No Country For Old Men win)
    3. The Shape of Water (similar to Birdman win)

    I don’t know how or why anyone would think that Lady Bird has a chance at winning Best Picture. Its a nice independent film, but it doesn’t hold a lot of weight. Get Out is a horror/comedy and will be lucky to get the nomination alone.

    Three Billboards could win if The Post ends up not being very good (this has honestly yet to be confirmed) and if The Shape of Water turns out to be too sci-fi. Its a film about a woman standing up against men, so Hollywood might not be able to resist that for the win.

    The Shape of Water will need to take home some wins in order to get Best Picture at this point. It does have a strong auteur who is loved in the film community and who will probably take home the Best Director Oscar, even if the film doesn’t win. If the movie starts to gain traction at the box office, I could see this taking a surprise win a la Birdman.

    Oh lordt, these Post stans. Now all of sudden the film people predicted to WIN SAG and had in he top 5 all year is now an “underdog”.

    NEWSFLASH: Both Kings Speech and Spotlight won SAG ensemble.

    It’s over for The Post.

    Marvel
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    #1202439752

    I think with CMBYN it’s the age difference issue is going to take a huge toll on the film come nominations night. Especially with Hollywoods floodgate of sexual harssment stuff.

    Anonymous
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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    manakamana
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    #1202439838

    SAG still suffers from the fact that a lot of the contenders at the end of the year don’t get seen by the nominating committee for one reason or another. But I think even this year we will start to see a more pronounced and dramatic difference between the Oscar nominees and the precursors like GG and SAG, so whereas usually no more than 3-4 overlapping nominees between GG/SAG miss out on Oscar nominations we can see Franco, Washington, Dench, Carell, Blige and Chau all miss out.

    Noah Arlington
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    #1202439852

    I think with CMBYN it’s the age difference issue is going to take a huge toll on the film come nominations night. Especially with Hollywoods floodgate of sexual harssment stuff.

    If that were true I think it would be obvious now. Except Timothee keeps getting nominated so I doubt that’s the case.

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