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December 13, 2017 at 9:17 pm #1202439876
There is no huge toll, they are just liking other movies more, much to the disappointment of the CMBNY mafia.December 14, 2017 at 7:15 am #1202440230
Friendly reminder that Jonah Hill got an Oscar nom without any of the 4 big precursors. So there’s always that outside possibility! Conversely, Jake Gyllenhaal got nominated at all 4 precursors and missed out for the single best performance of that year. Anything can happen! Maybe Michael Shannon will pull a Michael Shannon and get nominated in the end.December 14, 2017 at 9:04 am #1202440322This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 14, 2017 at 9:32 am #1202440330
I could see older male voters voting for Dunkirk but will it be enough? it would be interesting to know the percentages of older males, older females, blacks, asians, women, etc., etc., in the academy. I know they have been diversifying and adding new members the past few years but has that been enough to change the outcomes? One reason I do not see Get Out winning is that I seriously doubt enough academy members would be in love with a film that is an alleged “horror comedy” – I just don’t see it having enough support for the win. The reason we are getting Best Picture winners that are only winning 2-3 Oscars total is because of the preferential ballots/expansion of the Best Picture nominees to more than 5 and less than 10 (usually 8 or 9). It depends so much on how much passion can be generated by any one film this year. Last year there was such a fierce backlash against La La Land and that helped Moonlight – it was seen as a two-picture race; that is not the case this year. This year there is at least some passion for Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape Of Water, and Three Billboards – there will be a siphoning of votes which might lead to a bizarre outcome (or a terrible one in the case of a few of these movies!) I don’t believe this will ever be a two-picture race.December 14, 2017 at 9:34 am #1202440332
SAG still suffers from the fact that a lot of the contenders at the end of the year don’t get seen by the nominating committee for one reason or another. But I think even this year we will start to see a more pronounced and dramatic difference between the Oscar nominees and the precursors like GG and SAG, so whereas usually no more than 3-4 overlapping nominees between GG/SAG miss out on Oscar nominations we can see Franco, Washington, Dench, Carell, Blige and Chau all miss out.
I would add Kaluuya to your list. I am predicting 14 or 15 SAG nominees will move on to the Oscar final five. (I do have Franco back in to my Best Actor predictions, at least for now).December 14, 2017 at 11:11 am #1202440419
This year there is at least some passion for Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape Of Water, and Three Billboards
I agree Freeman. These seem to be a lock for the 8 Best Picture nominees. Someone posed the question on another thread – “How many will there be?” These seem to have the most passion. I wonder if there will be a 9th or 10th. If so which one or two will it be? I’m curious what everyone thinks.December 14, 2017 at 11:19 am #1202440424This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 14, 2017 at 11:20 am #1202440426
Friendly reminder that Jonah Hill got an Oscar nom without any of the 4 big precursors. So there’s always that outside possibility! Conversely, Jake Gyllenhaal got nominated at all 4 precursors and missed out for the single best performance of that year. Anything can happen! Maybe Michael Shannon will pull a Michael Shannon and get nominated in the end.
Yeah but that was cause the Academy winded up liking The Wolf of Wall Street enough and Hill was already a previous nominee. Gyllenhaal can’t do that with a movie barely anyone saw and Shannon can’t do it when Richard Jenkins is taking all of the heat.December 14, 2017 at 12:43 pm #1202440475This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.December 15, 2017 at 10:50 am #1202441249
Florida project producer is stepping down after harassment charges … do you think this hurts its chances at a BP nom ???
Check out my online store 🙂December 15, 2017 at 11:09 am #1202441254
Not really I mean Manchester Got through by (Casey Affleck) and The Hurt Locker (Producer that tried sway voters). Plus I think this one is minimal compared to the others
"We will always have Paris"December 15, 2017 at 11:40 am #1202441278
When will they put up the Best Foreign Language Film category in the predictions center? Despite the travesty of that awful committee leaving out one of the greatest films ever (BPM) we now have the 9 finalists, it’s time to start predicting which 5 will make it to the final nominations.
The topic ‘Oscars 2018 Nominations Predictions (Part 7)’ is closed to new replies.