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Oscars 2020: Best Actress predictions

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  • FreemanGriffin
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    While I didn’t care all that much for Us on the whole I did think that Lupita N’yongo’s performance was terrific and the reason for seeing the film. She did so much with the material she was given. Again, it’s going to depend on what comes out over the next 4-5 months – some will drop by the wayside and others will rise out of nowhere – just like every year!

    Foolio
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    Kaluuya never had any buzz period until late October / early November, until after IndieWire and THR publisher articles about another possibility of an #OscarsSoWhite, at the time, the only PoC actors with a chance of nominations were Washington with Maybe Blige & Chau (although Chau was a struggle since the poor reception of her film). It was obvious throughout that entire season that the “star” of Get Out and with the one with the likelihood and buzz was Peele. Feinberg of THR had him as a “Long Shot” with the likes of Donald Sutherland, James McAvoy and Sam Elliott, with contenders being listed above Kaluuya including Andrew Garfield, Kumail Nanjiani, Andy Serkis & Richard Gere. AwardsWatch experts only started considering him in August (and in 16th place). Even in November, Awardswatch users only thought that Kaluuya was a distance 6th with Gyllenhaal having better chances / buzz.

    To be clear, I wasn’t saying everyone was predicting Kaluuya to get an Oscar nod at this time of the year. But he was the acclaimed breakout star of a film that had become a massive pop culture juggernaut, and both the film and his performance had already proved enduring. I for one started predicting him long before October/November, and even felt somewhat confident about it while realizing he was still an underdog.

    Fair or not, Nyong’o has the performance and the acclaim but none of the endurance this year. Us just doesn’t seem to have the legs.

    Dorsey
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    If it were up to me, Lupita would get nominated, but I don’t think Us is going to be at the Oscars. Unless a lot of presumed contenders flop she’s probably looking at some minor critics groups if anything.

    JackO
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    People trying to reinvent history even with the receipts posted loud and clear. Kaluuya had so much endurance he was in 16th place in the rankings in August. lol Come on now. Lupita is in 7th. Don’t come at me with this false narrative of lack of buzz lol.

    Foolio
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    People trying to reinvent history even with the receipts posted loud and clear. Kaluuya had so much endurance he was in 16th place in the rankings in August. lol Come on now. Lupita is in 7th. Don’t come at me with this false narrative of lack of buzz lol.

    If by “people” you mean me, I’m not claiming Kaluuya was widely tipped to get a nod in August – there’s no question that he was a bonafide underdog up until late autumn.

    But there’s also no question that his film and performance were firmly cemented in our pop culture consciousness by this time of the year and the buzz just kept getting louder. That’s endurance.

    I do wish to be wrong about Nyong’o’s chances as I think she deserves to be nominated for Us, but the film has lost oxygen. Unless it gets a new start (which I’m not ruling out and wish to happen) Nyong’o is at the risk of dropping like a brick from wherever she’s ranked in predictions right now as the season really gets going.

    But again, I do want to believe in Nyong’o having buzz so I’ll happily agree with you that it’s true. Let’s hope it becomes a self-fulfilling profecy.

    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    Lupita gave a good performance but is not being nominated. She won’t be nominated because of an early release and genre bias (with no relevant social issue attached).

    Gabarnes43
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    I don’t see Erivo or Nyong’o happening.

    FYC Oscars- Little Women, Saoirse Ronan, Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlett Johansson/Florence Pugh

    FYC EMMYS- Schitts Creek, Dead to Me/ THE MORNING SHOW, Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, Gugu Mbatha Raw, Killing Eve

    Babygirl
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    Awkwafina and Erivo are getting in lol. Awkwafina has a strong narrative to pass her over. However, I feel like Erivo is being overestimated. She will most likely be Harriet’s only nomination ala The Wife and I doubt the film will be acclaimed based on how basic the film looks in the trailer, as of now I don’t see her happening. Because of that, as the race goes forward I’m starting to believe that it will be between Scarlett Johansson and Awkwafina.

    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    Awkwafina is not for sure getting in. Her film came out very early and theres a good chance its hype goes away after the Fall Festivals.

    Erivo seems to be this years Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex.

    Gabarnes43
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    My Predictions:

    • Saoirse Ronan
    • Renee Zellweger
    • Awkwafina
    • Emma Thompson
    • Cynthia Erivo
    • Scarlett Johansson
    • Nicole Kidman
    • Charlize Theron
    • Cate Blanchett
    • Julianne Moore
    • Alfre Woodard

    FYC Oscars- Little Women, Saoirse Ronan, Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlett Johansson/Florence Pugh

    FYC EMMYS- Schitts Creek, Dead to Me/ THE MORNING SHOW, Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, Gugu Mbatha Raw, Killing Eve

    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    Top Rank: Zellweger, Johansson, and Ronan.

    Next Up: Jones, Portman, and Awkwafina.

    Nearly There: Erivo, Theron, and Stewart.

    Still in the Race: Woodard, N’yongo, and Mirren.

    Dark Horses: Cruz, Hawkins, and Pike, if any are 2019.

    Gabarnes43
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    I think Thompson has a real shot, she’s getting in at a Globes and BAFTA

    FYC Oscars- Little Women, Saoirse Ronan, Joaquin Phoenix, Scarlett Johansson/Florence Pugh

    FYC EMMYS- Schitts Creek, Dead to Me/ THE MORNING SHOW, Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, Gugu Mbatha Raw, Killing Eve

    JackO
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    Its interesting how expectations can shade predictions. Harriet has a bad trailer and now folks are acting like Ervio wont even be nominated. Judy looks like hot garbage and Zellweger is seen as a top contender.

    Eddy Q
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    Erivo seems to be this years Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex.

    Jones was widely criticised for being outright miscast though, with a shaky Brooklyn accent. However Harriet performs in awards season, the only outright controversy I can forsee around Erivo is yet another major African-American role being taken by a Brit, but I doubt that will amount to much.

    Seven
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    I’ve already seen some backlash against Erivo, something about a bunch of derogatory comments she made against African-Americans a few years ago. Don’t know if it’ll have much impact though

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