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Oscars 2020: Best Animated Feature Predictions

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  • Cordelia
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    #1203051113

    I’m skeptical of Missing Link’s chances because it was a titanic flop, but Laika does have a perfect record of getting into Animated Feature so far, so it’s still a contender.

    I don’t think Laika has had many hits. Coraline was the only film that studio made that got more than 2x the budget at the box office, per Wikipedia.

    That having been said, 24.7 Million off a 100 million budget is a nasty flop. That movie was pretty bad and unappealing in theme or premise, so I can see why. I only put it there reluctantly.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    Michael P
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    Here are my predictions:

    1. Toy Story 4 (The movie is excellent, so, unless some other film really surprises us, this is the safest bet for now.)

    2. Frozen II (The movie looks great, plus the first Frozen one the award in 2014.)

    3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (The film is very good, a strong conclusion to a strong trilogy that the Academy has liked in the past. It may not be as good as some of the indie films this year, but it probably be marketed more heavily.)

    4. I Lost My Body (They say the film is excellent. Plus, with Netflix backing, the film will be able to get a strong awards push–and everyone will actually be able to see it.)

    5.  Klaus (I’m going on a limb and guessing that Netflix will be able to sneak in two films this year. Klaus will have Netflix backing it [see above], but it also has a new, innovative style of animation, blending 2D drawing with 3D volumetric lighting techniques seamlessly.

    Another strong contender:

    6. Weathering With You (Indie distributor GKIDS usually gets at least one film in, and this looks like their strongest player this year. It looks beautiful, but…will it be too much melodramatic “teen romance” for the Academy? Plus, non-Ghibli anime films historically don’t get nominated (though Mirai did last year.)

    Unlikely at this point:

    7. Missing Link (Laika has always been nominated in the past, but…Has anyone actually seen this film? It flopped so hard at the box office, I’m pretty sure I’m the only one who’s actually seen it.)

    8. The Lion King (While it most definitely is an animated movie, Disney is marketing it as “live action,” and furthermore, critics are very mixed on the film.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203053995

    Here are my predictions:
    4. I Lost My Body (They say the film is excellent. Plus, with Netflix backing, the film will be able to get a strong awards push–and everyone will actually be able to see it.)

    5. Klaus (I’m going on a limb and guessing that Netflix will be able to sneak in two films this year. Klaus will have Netflix backing it [see above], but it also has a new, innovative style of animation, blending 2D drawing with 3D volumetric lighting techniques seamlessly.

    Another strong contender:

    6. Weathering With You (Indie distributor GKIDS usually gets at least one film in, and this looks like their strongest player this year. It looks beautiful, but…will it be too much melodramatic “teen romance” for the Academy? Plus, non-Ghibli anime films historically don’t get nominated (though Mirai did last year.)

    Netflix is not pushing those films for Oscars campaigning apparently, so you may want to adjust your prediction. I can maybe see I Lost My Body getting in as an off-chance, but not two Netflix movies.

    https://www.indiewire.com/2019/08/netflix-theatrical-releases-marriage-story-the-king-fall-films-1202168980/

    Also, Weathering With You having the confidence level of being Japan’s official selection for Best International Film says a lot – they are going to try and get that film nominated. Plus, I watched it and it would quite frankly be a massive mistake if it doesn’t get nominated.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    Michael P
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    #1203054689

    Netflix is not pushing those films for Oscars campaigning apparently, so you may want to adjust your prediction. I can maybe see I Lost My Body getting in as an off-chance, but not two Netflix movies. https://www.indiewire.com/2019/08/netflix-theatrical-releases-marriage-story-the-king-fall-films-1202168980/ Also, Weathering With You having the confidence level of being Japan’s official selection for Best International Film says a lot – they are going to try and get that film nominated. Plus, I watched it and it would quite frankly be a massive mistake if it doesn’t get nominated.

    Weird, I read another article that seemed to imply that Netflix would be pushing these two films (https://www.cartoonbrew.com/feature-film/netflix-sets-theatrical-release-dates-for-i-lost-my-body-and-klaus-178778.html). I wonder if the IndieWire article is simply saying that Netflix won’t be pushing these animated films as heavily (?). For instance, Netflix’s “Marriage Story” will likely be competing for Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Actress, etc., whereas “I Lost My Body” will likely only be competing in Animated Feature. If it’s true that Netflix isn’t pushing these films, I’d definitely put “Weathering With You” on the list!

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    Josh5890
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    Right now, this is how I would rank them

    Locks

    • Toy Story 4
    • How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
    • Frozen 2

    Contenders

    • Weathering with You
    • Funan
    • I lost My Body
    • Klaus
    • Bunuel in the Labryinth of the Turtles
    • Missing Link

    Weathering feels like close to a lock. Every year the academy gives at least one nomination to a foreign film in this category. I think the last slot goes to one of the Netflix films, but if not those, then Funan or Bunuel. I have a hard time seeing Missing Link break through.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203062814

    Abominable reviews buzz is very mild, but positive.

    “I didn’t know what to expect from Abominable, but it’s a solid B/B+ DreamWorks picture. Main offenses are a “Whoops there it is” joke and an unironic use of “Fix You.” That felt more like Fish Tale 2 material.”

    “As big and fluffy and playfully unsophisticated as the monster at its core, DreamWorks Animation’s latest romp, Abominable, will not doubt amuse kids ages 10 and under who like their movies simple, sweet and filled with giant blueberries.”

    I think I’m switching my Dreamworks prediction to How To Train Your Dragon 3 as that had way more enthusiastic and positive reviews

    so my prediction list is now

    – Toy Story 4
    – Frozen 2
    – Weathering With You
    – How To Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
    – I Lost My Body

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    Cordelia
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    #1203081376

    Going to rank the metascores of some of the films that have already gotten reviews for an idea of the acclaim

    Toy Story 4 – 84
    How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – 71
    Missing Link – 68
    Abominable – 55

    So yeah, Abominable really isn’t looking like a nominee contender.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    Josh5890
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    #1203082070

    This seems to be the year (at least in the US) where original animated films flop and sequels are all the rage.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203098586

    Frozen II looks like a CG animation spectacle – honestly these trailers have been closer to a superhero movie than a Disney animated movie in tone, and I’m not a fan of it.

    So yeah, it’ll probably win because voters won’t watch any of the other films in the category.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    Josh5890
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    #1203105043

    Right now, going off of what I have seen my vote would be for How To Train Your Dragon: The Lost World.

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    Hoster1
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    #1203105277

    So yeah, Abominable really isn’t looking like a nominee contender.

    Did you forget they nomimated Ferdinamd anf Boss Baby? If Abominable is a hit it has a decent shot imo.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203105449

    Did you forget they nomimated Ferdinamd anf Boss Baby? If Abominable is a hit it has a decent shot imo.

    2017 was the worst year for Animated movies in a long time though. The academy were desperate to fill 5 slots that year. I still have no idea how The Lego Batman Movie missed out though.

    Also, Ferdinand was pretty good in my opinion.

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Ford v Ferrari
    Best Director: Bong-Joon Ho, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Robert Pattinson, Roman Griffin Davis, Christian Bale
    Best Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, Song Kang-Ho, Sam Rockwell
    Best Supporting Actress: Thomasin McKensie, Cho Yeo-Jeong
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit, Joker
    Best Original Screenplay: Parasite, Ford v Ferrari

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    Josh5890
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    #1203105503

    2017 was the worst year for Animated movies in a long time though. The academy were desperate to fill 5 slots that year. I still have no idea how The Lego Batman Movie missed out though. Also, Ferdinand was pretty good in my opinion.

    The Academy snubbing the original Lego Movie told me never to expect a nominee for legos in this category.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by  Joshua.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by  Joshua.
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    Cordelia
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    #1203109192

    Lego Movie 2 happened this year! God, I forgot about that. If the original couldn’t get nominated though, this definitely won’t.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #1203109207

    The biggest question mark right now is whether The Lion King will get in. It is a visual marvel, but it’s marketed as “live-action” and I think it could fool some people into thinking it is. Because nobody on the staff believes it to be an animated film, I don’t think it will even campaign for it, instead being up for Picture, Actor, Screenplay, etc.

    The only nomination The Lion King (2019) will get is Visual Effects.

    I'm not perfect, but I keep trying.

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