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Oscars 2020 Part 2 (Predictions Center Now Open)

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    24fanatic
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    Marriage Story seems like the real deal based on all of the reviews so far. Expect noms across the board. The whole Netflix argument against it is dumb. Times change and so do people’s thoughts and opinions. Mudbound broke ground with its 4 noms 2 years ago and it was said that it couldn’t get nominated for Best Picture because of the Netflix bias. Then the very next year, Roma was nominated for 10 Academy Awards, including Best Picture and won 3. It was said it couldn’t win Best Picture because of the Netflix bias, but really it probably had to do more with the fact it was a slow-paced foreign film. Eventually, a streaming film will probably win. I’m not saying it’s going to be Marriage Story, I’m just saying it’s dumb to discount a film because of how it’s distributed (especially with how easy of access it gives voters to view it from home).

    Based on reviews, it seems that Ad Astra played better with the foreign/European critics than it did with the American ones. Doesn’t sound like it will be a major Oscar player.

    Meanwhile, can we stop with the fanboy delusions? Endgame is not going to be touched by the Oscars and there is nothing to prove that voters would go for it. The past 3 Avengers films scored a grand total of ONE Oscar nomination between them (for visual effects). That’s it!!! Pushing aside all other common logic why this superhero movie wouldn’t be nominated, that fact alone demonstrates how there is no love for the Avengers at the Oscars. If members embraced the series, it would have got into other categories over the years like Score, Sound Editing, Costumes, Art Direction, etc… but they didn’t and they won’t now.

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    JackO
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    I doubt thoughts change in a year especially when they are being expressed as we speak. I mean they chose Green Book of all films over a Netflix film. Marriage Story would have to sweep across the board, which I guess could be possible but unlikely.

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    John Berchmans
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    I still think the only way Marriage Story gets into Picture is if The Irishman ends up being a massive flop. There’s no way 2 Netflix films will get in (we’ve never even had 2 streaming films in Picture at the same time), and Scorcese is far more likely to escape the bias than Baumbach. It will be nominated for Director, Screenplay, Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress for sure though.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Greg
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    Ad Astra is having RAVE reviews right now…

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    Seven
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    I still think the only way Marriage Story gets into Picture is if The Irishman ends up being a massive flop. There’s no way 2 Netflix films will get in (we’ve never even had 2 streaming films in Picture at the same time), and Scorcese is far more likely to escape the bias than Baumbach. It will be nominated for Director, Screenplay, Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress for sure though.

    Just because it never happened doesn’t mean it can’t. Netflix started competing at the Oscars literally two years ago when Mudbound became the first Netflix movie to get nominated in a major category (Screenplay). Then Roma became the first to get in Best Picture and then win a major Oscar, while another Netflix movie (Buster Scruggs) nabbed a Screenplay nom. Things are slowly evolving and I don’t see what’s so far fetched with both Irishman and Marriage Story getting in Best Picture

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by Seven.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by Seven.
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    Babygirl
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    If Netflix is smart they’ll focus on Marriage Story more than Irishmen.

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    Babygirl
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    The past 3 Avengers films scored a grand total of ONE Oscar nomination between them (for visual effects).

    The first Avengers film also got nominated for Visual Effects but yeah you spilled.

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    Seven
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    The backlash didn’t stop both La La Land and Roma from winning major awards and having very successful precursor runs. Hell it didn’t even stop Green Book from winning Best Picture and Bohemian Rhapsody Best Actor.

    The Shape of Water and 3BB were targeted too, yet they still bagged.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by Seven.
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    Jays
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    Once the Oscar season really starts there will be A Marriage Story backlash. Just like there was for Roma and La La Land etc. And the Netflix trying to ruin cinema talk will comeback

    Keep saying it. Maybe it’ll actually happen.

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    Seven
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    The Roma backlash last year was bigger than any backlash Green Book and Bohemian had. The argument was vote for Green Book and Bohemian and save the cinematic experience if not Cinema will be dead. And it all started with Spielberg.

    And it still won Best Director despite all of this. If the voters like the screenplay and acting performances of Marriage Story, they will simply vote for it. And since there’s no preferential ballot in these categories, they won’t be any anti-Netflixer to sabotage their votes like they did with Roma (or La La Land who was probably ranked dead last on many ballots)

    Again, no one is expecting it to win Best Picture. But these so called backlash are irrelevant outside of the preferential ballot

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by Seven.
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    Jays
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    Also, many minorities Academy members will see this film as too white and the fact that Scarjo has openly taken roles from transgenders and minorities will be part of the conversation once the Oscar race really start.

    Lol, if Marriage Story will be seen as too white then what will your beloved Theron’s movie be seen as? The film has absolute raves right now, and controversy hasn’t stopped movies from winning Oscars before, especially for acting.

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    Scorsesefan
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    I think people are underestimating Us. Sure it may not get a directing nod, but I see it getting in for Picture, Actress, Screenplay and Score.

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    Seven
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    Like I said in my previous tweet Marriage Story will be seen as problematic. Minority Hollywood will not vote for a movie with an actress that has taken roles from the most vulnerable.

    But they voted for a movie directed by a man who literally raped the most vulnerable just last year ? Most awarded movie of the night if I remember correctly

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by Seven.
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    Jays
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    And it still won Best Director despite all of this. If the voters like the screenplay and acting performances of Marriage Story, they will simply vote for it. And since there’s no preferential ballot in these categories, they won’t be any anti-Netflixer to sabotage their votes like they did with Roma (or La La Land who was probably ranked dead last on many ballots) Again, no one is expecting it to win Best Picture. But these so called backlash are irrelevant outside of the preferential ballot

    Exactly this. People really overestimate the impact “backlash” has. Rami Malek just won an Oscar for a movie (that also won three other Oscar’s) that was mainly directed by someone accused of multiple cases of sexual assault. Didn’t stop Academy members from voting for it. If Marriage Story is loved by the industry, which I don’t see why it won’t be – it’s practically based on members of the industry, then they’ll vote for it.

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    kellis
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    I really don’t know how Johansson’s previous roles and minorities could hurt her and her movie’s chances when Malek won for a performance directed by a notorious sexual predator for a straight-washed Freddie Mercury (one of four wins for the movie) and a white savior film won Best Picture last year.

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

    Also got banned because...reasons? So, I guess ciao.

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