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Oscars 2020 Predictions (Part 3)

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  • Damiansport1
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    Honestly other than Once Upon and Marriage Story, I dont really see any other films as “locks”. Jojo flopping really opened things up.

    Hustlers is probably the safest SAG Ensemble prediction. Big box office hit, female/diverse big cast, early release. Fits the mold of many past nominees like Crazy Rich Asians, Big Sick, Bridesmaids etc.

    Damiansport1
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    Regardless of screen time for these movies…

    Are we sure that Anthony Hopkins is being campaigned as supporting and Jonathan Pryce as lead in The Two Popes? Just watched a trailer, and Hopkins’ name is being billed first.

    Same with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood… Tom Hanks’ name is the only one that appears in the trailer, yet he is listed under Supporting in the Prediction Centre, while Matthew Rhys is listed as a contender for Lead Actor.

    Category placement is more likely to reflect top billing over actual screen time (remember The Favourite, Training Day, Gods and Monsters, Collateral, The Last King of Scotland, etc.).

    I can see you are not really following reviews, buzz from festivals. Hanks has very supporting role, there is no discussion at all. Its Matthew Rhys story.

    Same with Two Popes. Pryce will be lead and Hopkins supporting. I think the only questions is Ford vs Ferrari where apparently both Bale and Damona are lead and its hard to imagine any of them going supp

    John Berchmans
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    I’m still apprehensive about Parasite’s chances of being nominated for Picture for three main reason. One: It’s a Foreign Language (or I guess I should say International) film, which the academy still has a big bias towards even after Roma’s nomination. Two: Unlike Roma, Parasite is a much less straightforward film with a lot of underlying metaphor beneath the surface, making it harder to understand, and Bong Joon Ho is not an academy veteran like Cuaron (or even a previous nominee). Third: Neon is an absolutely awful distributor when it comes to awards campaigning: they couldn’t even get I Tonya into the Picture race two years ago.

    If Parasite wins the People’s Choice award then I think it has a shot, but I still think that award will go to a more widely seen and buzzed about film like A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v Ferrari, or Just Mercy.

    BP: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, Uncut Gems, Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story,
    BD: Bong-Joon Ho, Benny and Josh Safdie, Taika Waititi, Todd Phillips, Noah Baumbach
    Actor: Phoenix, Sandler, Pattinson, Driver, Bale
    Actress: Nyong'o, Johansson
    S. Actor: Dafoe, Kang-Ho, Rockwell, Pacino, Hopkins
    S. Actress: Dern, McKensie, Yeo-Jeong, Julia Fox
    AS: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, The Irishman, Toy Story 4
    OS: Parasite, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Uncut Gems, Us

    thatnerdgreg
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    Hustlers is probably the safest SAG Ensemble prediction. Big box office hit, female/diverse big cast, early release. Fits the mold of many past nominees like Crazy Rich Asians, Big Sick, Bridesmaids etc.

    I can definitely see Hustlers making it in, but I wouldn’t call it the safest prediction. Marriage Story is a potential Best Picture winner with several big names giving very well received performances, with three of them being considered possible winners. And Little Women is a much hyped about movie with an all star cast. As long as it’s good (and early word says it is), it’s very likely going to be nominated. I’d say both of those will make it in over Hustlers. I’m curious to see what happens with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It’s got a great cast full of stars, but aside from DiCaprio, Pitt, and Robbie, everyone plays very small roles (and Robbie’s role isn’t exactly that big since she doesn’t do a whole lot). The whole cast is excellent, but I wonder if the film’s SAG chances could be hurt since it ends up feeling like a two hander (sort of like how LaLaLand was likely hurt at SAG).

    Anyway, I’ve just realized that Laura Dern has a very good shot at getting four SAG nominations (an individual nomination for Marriage Story, and ensemble nods for Marriage Story, Little Women, and Big Little Lies. And her father could also wind up getting a nomination for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (for ensemble). It’s a good time to be a Dern.

     

    justonemorething
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    Once Upon a Time’s ensemble will be sizable because Dakota Fanning, Margaret Qualley, Julia Butters, Kurt Russell, Emile Hirsch, Mike Moh, Al Pacino, Austin Butler have memorable contributions even while small. Actors like Damien Lewis or Luke Perry or Maya Hawke, Lena Dunham have little more than cameos and won’t be included.

    JackO
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    Hustlers is probably the safest SAG Ensemble prediction. Big box office hit, female/diverse big cast, early release. Fits the mold of many past nominees like Crazy Rich Asians, Big Sick, Bridesmaids etc.

    Once Upon a Time has all that and much bigger names and its in a much better place in the BP race.

    Anonymous
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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Miles
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    It doesn’t really look like “the directing” type of movie as much as it is “the screenplay” type of movie.

    Kenneth Lonergan got in for Manchester by the Sea. If Marriage Story is as big as predicted, Noah Baumbach will have no problem getting in.

    Gabarnes43
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    I don’t feel right predicted Hustlers for a SAG Ensemble nom. Mainly the fact that I don’t see Cardi B or Lizzo getting a major industry award nomination (Grammys excluded). Sag nominee Cardi B just doesn’t seem right.
    I don’t have a problem with Lopez getting in, just as long as it’s a worthy performance. Once I’ve seen it I will be able to make a fair judgement

    • This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by  gabarnes43.
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by  gabarnes43.

    FYC Oscars- Little Women, Saoirse Ronan, Adam Driver, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt

    FYC SAG- The Crown, Olivia Colman/ Jodie Comer, Fleabag/Schitts Creek, Bombshell, Charlize Theron, Adam Driver, Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt

    FYC Emmys- The Crown, Killing Eve, Schitts Creek, Years and Years

    thatnerdgreg
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    Kenneth Lonergan got in for Manchester by the Sea. If Marriage Story is as big as predicted, Noah Baumbach will have no problem getting in.

    Lonergan’s direction wasn’t particularly showy, but it was still fantastic.

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    Salsa Club
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    Manchester is underrated and a masterpiece. Michelle should have also won Best Supporting Actress over Fraudola. The only bad thing in the movie was Lucas Hedges’ mediocre talent and miscastness.

    I see this come up often and I can’t help but remind people that Naomie Harris should have won that year for Moonlight

    thatnerdgreg
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    Manchester is underrated and a masterpiece. Michelle should have also won Best Supporting Actress over Fraudola. The only bad thing in the movie was Lucas Hedges’ mediocre talent and miscastness.

    Completely agree about Michelle (not only was she actually supporting, she was legitimately better than Viola), and completely disagree about Lucas.

    I see this come up often and I can’t help but remind people that Naomie Harris should have won that year for Moonlight

    I would’ve voted for Williams, but Harris would’ve been an extremely deserving winner as well. I feel her performance (despite being nominated) is criminally underrated. I thought she was also better than Viola.

    Damiansport1
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    I’m still apprehensive about Parasite’s chances of being nominated for Picture for three main reason. One: It’s a Foreign Language (or I guess I should say International) film, which the academy still has a big bias towards even after Roma’s nomination. Two: Unlike Roma, Parasite is a much less straightforward film with a lot of underlying metaphor beneath the surface, making it harder to understand, and Bong Joon Ho is not an academy veteran like Cuaron (or even a previous nominee). Third: Neon is an absolutely awful distributor when it comes to awards campaigning: they couldn’t even get I Tonya into the Picture race two years ago.

    If Parasite wins the People’s Choice award then I think it has a shot, but I still think that award will go to a more widely seen and buzzed about film like A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v Ferrari, or Just Mercy.

    What.

    Parasite is much more accesible film than black and white slow cinema – Roma. It will please general audience because its so funny, engaging with many twists and also bloody. It’s really close to some Tarantino movies in a way. And it will also satisfy high-brows and critics because it’s very beautiful, artistic and has important themes. It’s a movie for everyone. Literally everybody likes it or loves it which is something you rarely if ever see.
    If it wins Poeple choice then it will contend for BP win. Nomination is basically guaranteed imo.

    Salsa Club
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    Parasite is NOT winning Picture LOL

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