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Oscars 2020 Predictions (Part 3)

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    Cordelia
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    I’m still apprehensive about Parasite’s chances of being nominated for Picture for three main reason. One: It’s a Foreign Language (or I guess I should say International) film, which the academy still has a big bias towards even after Roma’s nomination. Two: Unlike Roma, Parasite is a much less straightforward film with a lot of underlying metaphor beneath the surface, making it harder to understand, and Bong Joon Ho is not an academy veteran like Cuaron (or even a previous nominee). Third: Neon is an absolutely awful distributor when it comes to awards campaigning: they couldn’t even get I Tonya into the Picture race two years ago.

    If Parasite wins the People’s Choice award then I think it has a shot, but I still think that award will go to a more widely seen and buzzed about film like A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v Ferrari, or Just Mercy.

    Parasite is a fairly accessible movie tbh. Roma is considerably slower-paced and more reflective in its pacing, while Parasite is a crowd-pleaser with a lot of laughs and twists. Watch Parasite in a big crowd and you’ll get big reactions. Yes, there’s underlying metaphor and depths to it, but the core story of manipulation is easy to grasp and enjoy.

    Neon being a dodgy distributor is a problem, but I will say they’ve done a better job with Parasite’s festival run so far than I, Tonya. And even I, Tonya I’d argue would have been the next film to get nominated that year and wasn’t far off from a Best Picture.

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by Cordelia.
    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by Cordelia.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    bellajoe
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    #1203074876

    Guys. Bong Joon Ho isn’t an academy darling. Cuaron could film himself sleeping for 4 hours and get director and picture nominations locked. The academy doesn’t often nominate foreign films in picture. Roma isn’t indicative of a change.  When was the last nomination before Roma– The Artist?

    Someone said Parasite will please the general audience. The general audience doesn’t watch foreign language films. All the Best Foreign Film nominees combined last year had like 10 million in domestic box office.  As always, I’m always down to be incorrect. Parasite and Weathering With you are my 2 most anticipated foreign films this year, so if they get more nods than expected, power to them.

    And then as for Hustler’s “lock” in SAG ensemble…… the only above average performance in that movie was Constance Wu’s grandmother and MAYBE JLo.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203074929

    What. Parasite is much more accesible film than black and white slow cinema – Roma. It will please general audience because its so funny, engaging with many twists and also bloody. It’s really close to some Tarantino movies in a way. And it will also satisfy high-brows and critics because it’s very beautiful, artistic and has important themes. It’s a movie for everyone. Literally everybody likes it or loves it which is something you rarely if ever see. If it wins Poeple choice then it will contend for BP win. Nomination is basically guaranteed imo.

    What I meant is that it had a more complicated plot than Roma, which was mostly just “a woman, in Mexico” for 90% of the film. I will admit that I haven’t seen the film, only read about it’s plot online, so maybe that won’t be as much of a problem as I though.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    JackO
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    #1203074962

    Roma isn’t indicative of a change.

    It actually was. Last year was the first after a bunch of new international people got added and no one really knew how they would vote. And you are omitting The Favourite and Cold War in this take.

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    Cinephile
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    #1203075035

    What I meant is that it had a more complicated plot than Roma, which was mostly just “a woman, in Mexico” for 90% of the film. I will admit that I haven’t seen the film, only read about it’s plot online, so maybe that won’t be as much of a problem as I though.

    Definitely won’t be a problem. I saw it in a general theatre not a festival screening and my theatre was packed.

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    JackO
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    Waves [all the way down](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/waves/critic-reviews) to a 81 MC. It pretty much has to place tomorrow to remain in the race.

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    MMartin
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    What do people think of Queen & Slim, the trailers have been fantastic, and the cast looks great. Any buzz or word on if it is a contender.

     

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    Mr. Tintin
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    #1203075723

    What do people think of Queen & Slim, the trailers have been fantastic, and the cast looks great. Any buzz or word on if it is a contender.

    I think we need to wait till it releases on November 27 (or possibly on AFI) to figure that out, but so far, yeah, I agree the trailers were good, but it looks unwieldy for Oscar viewers and it doesn’t have much star power going for it save for Daniel Kaluuya and Lena Waithe (as writer). I would like to see it work out well, though.

    Oscars 2020: I stan Joaquin Phoenix, Willem Dafoe, Alan Silvestri, and Dean Deblois.

    Emmys 2020: I stan Logan Lerman, Olivia Colman, and David Harbour.

    Tom Hanks and Amy Adams stan in general.

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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Mukund
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    #1203075922

    Adapted Screenplay is so weak, I’m literally predicting Toy Story 4, and it’ll probably get in.

    Same here.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203075924

    Guys. Bong Joon Ho isn’t an academy darling. Cuaron could film himself sleeping for 4 hours and get director and picture nominations locked. The academy doesn’t often nominate foreign films in picture. Roma isn’t indicative of a change. When was the last nomination before Roma– The Artist?

    Amour – which was apparently less accessible than Parasite and also a Palme d’Or winner. And this was before the recent surge in international members.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203075986

    I’m replacing Waves in Original Screenplay with Knives Out now. I don’t think it will be nominated for anything with those reviews. It needs raves to be a contender. A24’s one and only contender now is probably The Lighthouse.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    JackO
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    #1203076772

    So now that Jojo is back, I guess SAG ensemble is now:

    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Marriage Story
    Jojo Rabbit
    Hustlers

    then pick one from a bunch of Knives Out, Little Women, Irishmen I guess, Bombshell, etc.

    But I feel like this lineup is missing little diverse indie movie. So maybe The Farewell?

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    TVFan365
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    #1203076799

    A Hitler movie and a Joker movie just won the two most important fall film festival awards. PC Police must be seething.

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    GregSprinkles
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    #1203076923

    Now that Jojo’s back in the ring, I’m really curious about Thomasin McKenzie’s placement. She has a great chance of making it into supporting and could actually make it in lead.

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