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Oscars 2020 Predictions (Part 3)

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  • John Berchmans
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    Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Joker, and The Two Popes are the only serious competitors in Adapted Screenplay this year. True, Original Screenplay isn’t very strong either, but there’s a lot more potential options there. I’ll be shocked if another film besides the six I mentioned makes it in. Right now, I think Joker’s gonna miss out. We’re already hearing it’s pretty divisive, and I’m guessing that comes from the writing. Jojo Rabbit’s also been called divisive, but it looks like Jojo’s getting more love from critics, and it won’t have to deal with comic book bias.

    I will admit Joker is vulnerable, and so is ABDITN, and either of those films could be replaced with The Two Popes (or perhaps Hustlers/Toy Story 4), but right now I think it’s those 5. Jojo Rabbit is not only a lock, it’s also the frontrunner to win after TIFF. You can read the script online of you want: it’s fantastic!

    https://awardswatch.com/2020-oscar-nomination-predictions-original-screenplay-september/

    Speaking of which, this article says that 1917 could be a huge Original Screenplay contender, which I did not expect. What are your guys’ thoughts on this?

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Joker
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Joker

    Thatcher, Former Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    Darlings, Once and Always Trash in Hollywood and Divorcing Story are the only locks the Prime Minister sees. Little Women and The Irishman will be well received for sure. Jojo Rubbish and Clownery are divisive but both are getting nominated. Parasite looks weird and The Two Popes looks classy (I’ll definitely love it) but not strong enough for a nod in BP.

    I was your Prime Minister once.

    Qoslca
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    Darlings, Once and Always Trash in Hollywood and Divorcing Story are the only locks the Prime Minister sees. Little Women and The Irishman will be well received for sure. Jojo Rubbish and Clownery are divisive but both are getting nominated. Parasite looks weird and The Two Popes looks classy (I’ll definitely love it) but not strong enough for a nod in BP.

    Seriously. Why do you have to slander every film? Why the hate with all the name-calling?

    I mean this in the nicest way possible, please lighten up. If you don’t like a film, that’s perfectly fine! With that said, there’s no need for unnecessary negativity. This forum is meant for people to have a civil discussion about cinema, not to insult it.

    My username stands for “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

    babypook
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    He’s “Margaret Thatcher”. In character.

    Nikhil
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    The first trailer for this film surfaced yesterday. Ostensibly, the movie like the typical “Erin Brockovich” – like film which the Academy usually eats up.

    What you all reckon?

    Idk I’m not so high on Dark Waters. In general, I’m bored of this genre of movies like Spotlight, The Post, The Report. Don’t get me wrong I still liked Spotlight and the Post, but I just feel no draw to see this. I’m sure it’s fine, and it’ll have its one or two scenes for ruffalo to yell, and then the credits will roll with facts about the real events which will get a few “oh wow how terrible” from like five old people in the audience and then I’m gonna walk out of that theater and never think about it again.

    My personal Top 10 of the 2019 so far:
    1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Joker 4) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5) The Peanut Butter Falcon 6) Marriage Story 7) Luce 8) Yesterday 9) Hotel Mumbai 10) Avengers: Endgame

    cracker of whips, bringer of jocks
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    Parasite looks weird

    As it should.

    Cordelia
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    If Netflix manages to get in two or three Best Picture nominees* and the old guard that backlashed against Roma for Netflix reasons need to support a film to backlash, what will they go for? What is this year’s Green Book that benefits the most from anti-Netflix buzz?

    * I don’t think The Two Popes is likely but it has a chance

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

    John Berchmans
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    I have a gut feeling that The Two Popes will be this year’s biggest snub, partially because there’s so much anti-Netflix sentiment in the academy, partially because Netflix is focusing most of their resources into The Irishman and Marriage Story, and partially because the ultra-liberal academy seems unlikely to reward a pro-Catholic movie now, especially after Spotlight.

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Joker
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Joker

    JackO
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    Not with Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Joker all competing in Adapted. I don’t why people think this category is so weak: Original Screenplay is much weaker.

    lol we have no idea if Little Women or Irishman are any good or not. No 1 curr about beautiful day in the snubhood. I’d put Hustlers and Toy Story 3 over the unseens and the latest Hanks snoozer. Even Joker could miss here. Jojo is the only guaranteed adapted screenplay.

    justonemorething
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    Having just seen “Downton Abbey”, Maggie Smith will likely be nominated for Best Supporting Actress if the field continues to be so weak. The film itself will probably net Costume and Production Design nominations. They’ll also get an ensemble nod at SAG.

    Nikhil
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    If Netflix manages to get in two or three Best Picture nominees* and the old guard that backlashed against Roma for Netflix reasons need to support a film to backlash, what will they go for? What is this year’s Green Book that benefits the most from anti-Netflix buzz?

    * I don’t think The Two Popes is likely but it has a chance

    So I don’t think Green Book won because of anti Netflix backlash (even if it may have been a factor), but I think it was more because Roma was the kind of movie everyone spoke publicly about how much they adored it and tanked it privately on their ballots because they didn’t really want it to win.

    I haven’t seen Marriage Story yet, but I am assuming it is way more entertaining and accessible than Roma was. If Netflix ends up netting 3 films in best picture, it means whatever the bias is, people just like their movies. I don’t think they will vote against a movie they love just because it’s a Netflix film.

    My personal Top 10 of the 2019 so far:
    1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Joker 4) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5) The Peanut Butter Falcon 6) Marriage Story 7) Luce 8) Yesterday 9) Hotel Mumbai 10) Avengers: Endgame

    Foolio
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    The “anti-Netflix backlash” is a weird and somewhat fabricated concept. If anything, Netflix broke through in a big way last year and proved it is taken as seriously as any traditional studio / distributor.

    Roma didn’t lose Best Picture because of bias against Netflix. It bagged a gasp-inducing amount of nominations and won Best Director despite the supposed bias against Netflix, thus proving the bias may not really even be there.

    If Roma could do what it did, it’s perfectly reasonable to predict three Netflix movies to make the Best Picture lineup this year.

    Foolio
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    Having just seen “Downton Abbey”, Maggie Smith will likely be nominated for Best Supporting Actress if the field continues to be so weak. The film itself will probably net Costume and Production Design nominations. They’ll also get an ensemble nod at SAG.

    Supporting Actress is not weak this year. There are about 15 possible contenders.

    JGibson
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    People really tend to forget Roma was slow, b&p and in a foreign language. The whole 2018 was about how this would be the detractors. Many voters watch these small releases at home with screeners anyway, it’s not like Roma was a crime to their precious cinema experience. That’s more cinephile talk anyway.

    Netflix can easily land these 2 nominations (if The Irishman is not some total crap) and a possible 3rd one if The Two Popes slays at precursors. But this ‘bias’ will not be the main problem

    FYC: Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes

    thatnerdgreg
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    My current predictions. Winners are in bold.

    Best Picture
    1917
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    The Farewell
    The Irishman
    Jojo Rabbit
    Little Women
    Marriage Story
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Parasite
    The Two Popes

    Best Director
    Noah Baumbauch, Marriage Story
    Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
    Sam Mendes, 1917
    Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
    Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Best Actor
    Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Adam Driver, Marriage Story
    Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
    Jonathon Pryce, The Two Popes

    Best Actress
    Awkwafina, The Farewell
    Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
    Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
    Charlize Theron, Bombshell
    Renée Zellweger, Judy

    Best Supporting Actor
    Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
    Al Pacino, The Irishman
    Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

    Best Supporting Actress
    Laura Dern, Marriage Story
    Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit*
    Florence Pugh, Little Women
    Margot Robbie, Bombshell
    Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell

    Best Original Screenplay
    The Farewell
    Knives Out
    Marriage Story
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Parasite

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    The Irishman
    Jojo Rabbit
    Little Women
    The Two Popes

    *I know she’s listed as a lead right now, but I believe they’ll move her down to supporting

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