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Oscars 2020 Predictions (Part 3)

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  • John Berchmans
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    Darlings, it’s been a tremendous pleasure.

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/television/2019-emmy-awards-ceremony-reactions-part-4/page/7/#post-1203097801

    Farewell Thatcher. It’s been an honor.

    null

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Joker
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Joker

    bellajoe
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    Wow, Thatcher’s unique presence will be missed from me. Yes she could be rude, but I’d be lying if I said she wasn’t super entertaining.

    I guess since y’all insist on talking about Avengers every 3 pages, I will offer the reasoning why I put it back in. To begin, our current odds in the PC are: OUATIH, Irishman, MS, Jojo, 1917, LW, FvF, Parasite, ABDITN and Joker.

    Currently, Avengers is sitting at number 21, but there are some non-factors ahead of it, The Report, The Laundromat, A Hidden Life, Ad Astra, Waves to name a few. The only likely movies above it are The Farewell, The Two Popes, Bombshell, and Pain and Glory (all of which should not be dismissed.)

    Of the 10 supposed frontrunners, Little Women, Irishman, and/or 1917 COULD flop, Jojo Rabbit and Joker have very mixed reactions, and in my personal opinion FvF and ABDITN look incredibly generic, and I’m still not convinced on Parasite in picture. But even if you remove my personal opinion, that still leaves only 5 “locks.”

    So as there are so few locks, It’s not out of the question now like it was right after Venice and Tiff. Then, there is the ABC factor, Disney’s presumable massive campaign (worth noting Disney may put more behind Endgame than either FvF or Jojo,) the ratings and press this “surprise” would generate… there seems to be a lot of reasons to throw the most successful movie of all time at least a nomination.

    Hammad Asif
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    Honest to God,when you witness and see all the politics,money campaigning and bad mouthing and negative whispering that goes into Oscar season,you start to dislike these awards.

    Brad Pitt is right to not campaign as it literally puts a dent into your art.

    This award system is not right and not based on merit.I just found out that Netflix spent $25 millions on ROMA’s award campaign not that it was anything less than a masterpiece but DAMN.

    Kubrick-Scorsese-Nolan-Coens-PTA-Fincher-Hitchock-Spike Lee-Tarantino
    19yr old Film School Student

    Seven
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    Netflix massive campaign for Roma got talked about a lot in here. They really did A LOT

    Politics, money and lobbying are nothing new in Hollywood and their awards have never been based on “merit” (as subjective as it is). It has always been about asskissing, smearing and intense campaigning (ie Joan Crawford launching that infamous anti Bette Davis smear campaign, Sally Kirkland basically prostituting herself, Harvey Weinstein lobbying hard to get those 7 Oscars to Shakespeare in Love etc etc)

    And to think that there’s so much dirt we don’t know about

    • This reply was modified 4 weeks ago by  Seven.
    • This reply was modified 4 weeks ago by  Seven.
    • This reply was modified 4 weeks ago by  Seven.
    Cordelia
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    I admit, I love laughing at the manipulative bullshit. The Academy has never been a meritocracy, it’s more like The Favourite where the question is who can get in the right relationships and collapse their competition quick enough. I don’t follow the Oscars race because the Academy makes the right decisions – they very rarely do. I follow the Oscars race because it is hilarious bullshit.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

    EsOS
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    Netflix massive campaign for Roma got talked about a lot in here. They really did A LOT

    What killed me is Yalitza’s photo shoot with Trump’s wall. I just died.

    FYC: Octavia Spencer (Luce) - Best Supporting Actress

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    Darlings, it’s been a tremendous pleasure.

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/television/2019-emmy-awards-ceremony-reactions-part-4/page/7/#post-1203097801

    The PM will be missed

    Alexa, play “I Will Always Love You” by Dolly Parton

    Cordelia
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    #1203098658

    Thatcher will come back as a Boris Johnson meme account, I hope.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

    JackO
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    #1203098760

    Movies are not thrown nominations. They get in because they have passionate support. Jojo won the TIFF audience award it’s not going anywhere. Parasite is 1000% more likely than Avengers: Fan Service. It is not happening. And even if you eliminate some from the top 10 there are still 5 more legitimate films that could get in for BP. For the millionth time, Endgame is not happening.

    bellajoe
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    If Jojo Rabbit were to be nominated, it would be tied for the third lowest rated BP nomination ever. Calling that a lock and then saying Avengers Fanservice isn’t happening is pure clownery.

    I really should start counting the times I say this, I believe this is 5 or 6: Endgame may happen, it may not. To whomever keeps bringing it up: Stop, you’re triggering some people but you’re also bringing up already discussed content. Let’s move on to more productive conversation.

    I’ll start. Downton Abbey. With its strong box office, and good critical reception, are we still only predicting it in Production Design? I’m debating adding it to Adapted Screenplay, but I haven’t watched it yet.

    JackO
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    Apparently Judy is opening up in 350 theaters this weekend. That is an odd rollout to me. Do they not have confidence in NY/LA building up the buzz? Flop incoming.

    TheDreamingHead
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    #1203099032

    Y’all know Judy only serve one purpose like The Wife did, right?

    Cinephile
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    This year we’ll probably end up with about 6-7 bp nominees.

    • ouatih
    • marriage story
    • the irishmen
    • parasite
    • 1917
    • ford v ferrari
    • *jojo rabbit
    • *the two popes

    these are my rankings in terms most likely to be nominated.

    I still feel that many academy member will be too nervous or apprehensive to embrace Jojo Rabbit but, it’s quite clear that Taika Watiti is beloved by many voters. Hence, I could envision a scenario where the adapted screenplay nomination is his reward, fortunately, the field is quite weak and he could win there.

    Also, having a look at the composition of the directors branch, the vast number of international directors could produce a Taika Waititi directing nomination. And I envision a push to recognise female talent. Actually, despite Marriage Story’s current momentum I can see Baumbach being snubbed and Marielle Heller gaining a consolation nomination from missing out last year with Can you Ever Forgive me. My tentative directors ranking for now:

    • Bong Joon-ho
    • Quentin Tarantino
    • Martin Scorsese
    • Marielle Heller
    • Taika Watiti
    M: The Original
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    #1203099044

    Apparently Judy is opening up in 350 theaters this weekend. That is an odd rollout to me. Do they not have confidence in NY/LA building up the buzz? Flop incoming.

    Judy doesn’t have to be profitable during its theatrical run to secure award season recognition. The narrative, the performance, and weak overall field for the category is enough.

    Kathy Bates for Best Supporting Actress (Richard Jewell)

    Cordelia
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    If Jojo Rabbit were to be nominated, it would be tied for the third lowest rated BP nomination ever. Calling that a lock and then saying Avengers Fanservice isn’t happening is pure clownery.

    You do realise WHY Jojo Rabbit is above Avengers, right? Winning TIFF’s audience award is a strong statistical precursor for a Best Picture nomination, especially in the 2010s. Green Book began its rise from Best Picture contender to winner with a surprise TIFF Audience win. Remember – precursors are something worth paying attention to.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite

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