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Oscars 2020 Predictions (Part 3)

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    Seven
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    Netflix massive campaign for Roma got talked about a lot in here. They really did A LOT

    Politics, money and lobbying are nothing new in Hollywood and their awards have never been based on “merit” (as subjective as it is). It has always been about asskissing, smearing and intense campaigning (ie Joan Crawford launching that infamous anti Bette Davis smear campaign, Sally Kirkland basically prostituting herself, Harvey Weinstein lobbying hard to get those 7 Oscars to Shakespeare in Love etc etc)

    And to think that there’s so much dirt we don’t know about

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by Seven.
    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by Seven.
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    Cordelia
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    I admit, I love laughing at the manipulative bullshit. The Academy has never been a meritocracy, it’s more like The Favourite where the question is who can get in the right relationships and collapse their competition quick enough. I don’t follow the Oscars race because the Academy makes the right decisions – they very rarely do. I follow the Oscars race because it is hilarious bullshit.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203098644

    Darlings, it’s been a tremendous pleasure.

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/television/2019-emmy-awards-ceremony-reactions-part-4/page/7/#post-1203097801

    The PM will be missed

    Alexa, play “I Will Always Love You” by Dolly Parton

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    Cordelia
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    #1203098658

    Thatcher will come back as a Boris Johnson meme account, I hope.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    JackO
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    Movies are not thrown nominations. They get in because they have passionate support. Jojo won the TIFF audience award it’s not going anywhere. Parasite is 1000% more likely than Avengers: Fan Service. It is not happening. And even if you eliminate some from the top 10 there are still 5 more legitimate films that could get in for BP. For the millionth time, Endgame is not happening.

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    bellajoe
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    #1203098988

    If Jojo Rabbit were to be nominated, it would be tied for the third lowest rated BP nomination ever. Calling that a lock and then saying Avengers Fanservice isn’t happening is pure clownery.

    I really should start counting the times I say this, I believe this is 5 or 6: Endgame may happen, it may not. To whomever keeps bringing it up: Stop, you’re triggering some people but you’re also bringing up already discussed content. Let’s move on to more productive conversation.

    I’ll start. Downton Abbey. With its strong box office, and good critical reception, are we still only predicting it in Production Design? I’m debating adding it to Adapted Screenplay, but I haven’t watched it yet.

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    JackO
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    #1203099021

    Apparently Judy is opening up in 350 theaters this weekend. That is an odd rollout to me. Do they not have confidence in NY/LA building up the buzz? Flop incoming.

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    TheDreamingHead
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    #1203099032

    Y’all know Judy only serve one purpose like The Wife did, right?

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    Cinephile
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    This year we’ll probably end up with about 6-7 bp nominees.

    • ouatih
    • marriage story
    • the irishmen
    • parasite
    • 1917
    • ford v ferrari
    • *jojo rabbit
    • *the two popes

    these are my rankings in terms most likely to be nominated.

    I still feel that many academy member will be too nervous or apprehensive to embrace Jojo Rabbit but, it’s quite clear that Taika Watiti is beloved by many voters. Hence, I could envision a scenario where the adapted screenplay nomination is his reward, fortunately, the field is quite weak and he could win there.

    Also, having a look at the composition of the directors branch, the vast number of international directors could produce a Taika Waititi directing nomination. And I envision a push to recognise female talent. Actually, despite Marriage Story’s current momentum I can see Baumbach being snubbed and Marielle Heller gaining a consolation nomination from missing out last year with Can you Ever Forgive me. My tentative directors ranking for now:

    • Bong Joon-ho
    • Quentin Tarantino
    • Martin Scorsese
    • Marielle Heller
    • Taika Watiti
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    M: The Original
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    #1203099044

    Apparently Judy is opening up in 350 theaters this weekend. That is an odd rollout to me. Do they not have confidence in NY/LA building up the buzz? Flop incoming.

    Judy doesn’t have to be profitable during its theatrical run to secure award season recognition. The narrative, the performance, and weak overall field for the category is enough.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203099046

    If Jojo Rabbit were to be nominated, it would be tied for the third lowest rated BP nomination ever. Calling that a lock and then saying Avengers Fanservice isn’t happening is pure clownery.

    You do realise WHY Jojo Rabbit is above Avengers, right? Winning TIFF’s audience award is a strong statistical precursor for a Best Picture nomination, especially in the 2010s. Green Book began its rise from Best Picture contender to winner with a surprise TIFF Audience win. Remember – precursors are something worth paying attention to.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Parasite

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    kellis
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    #1203099079

    Y’all know Judy only serve one purpose like The Wife did, right?

    To fail at giving an actress an Oscar?

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

    Also got banned because...reasons? So, I guess ciao.

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    JGibson
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    #1203099117

    Netflix massive campaign for Roma got talked about a lot in here. They really did A LOT

    Politics, money and lobbying are nothing new in Hollywood and their awards have never been based on “merit” (as subjective as it is). It has always been about asskissing, smearing and intense campaigning (ie Joan Crawford launching that infamous anti Bette Davis smear campaign, Sally Kirkland basically prostituting herself, Harvey Weinstein lobbying hard to get those 7 Oscars to Shakespeare in Love etc etc)

    And to think that there’s so much dirt we don’t know about

    Louis B. Mayer created the Oscars cause he knew the best way to keep actors and filmakers aroused to make more money to the studios was to create a prestigious prize where everybody in the industry would die to get their hands into.

    So yeah, it’s been a beauty peagant since day one and it’s much more interesting to see their campaign skills and will to win than the actual quality cause art is subjective, someone is gonna disagree with the winners etc etc.

    But I agree, it’s too much money for a pageant.

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    Babygirl
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    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1203099155

    Renée having a transformative baity role for a biopic + a comeback narrative alone is enough for recognition tbh. Box office would have a big effect if her main competitor’s film wasn’t on Netflix.

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