April 26, 2021 at 2:10 pm #1204230055
Do y’all think that Viola should’ve been pushed in Supporting? I saw a lot of people say during the awards season that she didn’t have enough screen time to warrant a Lead push.
Nope. I am glad she stayed in lead.April 26, 2021 at 2:12 pm #1204230061
Even if Viola had gone supporting, I’m still not confident that she would have prevailed over Yuh-jung Youn.April 26, 2021 at 2:14 pm #1204230063
We can’t know. We will never know. There’s really no point in trying to guess, no? She did not win her second Oscar, and that’s just how it is.April 26, 2021 at 2:16 pm #1204230071
If Viola had gone in supporting I imagine this is how it would go
– She replaces Zengel at the Globes. Globe still goes to Foster
– Replaces Burstyn at Critics Choices. Critics Choice goes to Davis
– replaces Close or Seyfried at the Oscars.
– SAG goes to Davis
– With the jury system who knows if Davis would have been nominated but Youn would still win.
– Oscar would go to Youn from passion and international support and she would pull a Hopkins.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.April 26, 2021 at 2:33 pm #1204230117
This was a strange season due to virtual ceremonies, people not watching movies, and lack of in person campaigning. Watch next year precursors fall in the same line as 4/4 sweeps last year. The 2020-2021 award season will most likely be an anomaly but we will see for the future and hope it isn’t an anomaly as I appreciate precursors going to different people and the general chaos of it.
Agreed. The unusual nature of this season is the reason why things were so fucked up, just like the shortened season also had an effect in 2020 in the Picture/Director categories. Be prepared to boring sweeps next year.April 26, 2021 at 2:34 pm #1204230126
I am glad Viola stuck to Lead. She won a freaking SAG award, that alone justifies her placement. She could have lost this Oscar to Frances by just 5 votes! And she will be winning her 2nd (and I believe even 3rd Oscar) in the future. So why should she have pushed herself in Supporting?April 26, 2021 at 2:39 pm #1204230140
I think playing Lincoln had something to do with it that was undeniable awards bait.
Well, despite numerous previous movies about him, nobody had previously won an Oscar for playing Lincoln, although Raymond Massey was nominated in 1949 for Young Mr. Lincoln.April 26, 2021 at 2:42 pm #1204230152
We can’t know. We will never know. There’s really no point in trying to guess, no? She did not win her second Oscar, and that’s just how it is.
Oh, sorry, I didn’t mean to further speculation. I do think Viola will be getting a second in no time, perhaps next year with either Unforgiven or The Woman King.April 26, 2021 at 2:44 pm #1204230158
I honestly believe the only thing Day did is take away enough votes from Davis to enable McDormand’s victory. Also for all we know, McDormand could have won this category by less than 100, 50 or even 10 votes! We won’t know the vote totals but it won’t surprise me in the least if McDormand’s win was by the most wafer-thin margin. Quoting what Youn said in her speech, McDormand (as deserving as she was, and I believe she was the best here) was incredibly lucky to win this, with how the category shaped up for her (with Day getting nominated, unlike at SAG) and 2020 being a truly unusual year.
I think one thing McDormand’s win proved was that in a split open race, the performer in the bigger contender always wins in the end (provided they are actually in contention for the award after having won a precursor). Look at Marion Cotillard winning over Julie Christie or Olivia Colman winning over Glenn Close. Look at how Mahershala Ali and Hillary Swank won second Oscars so soon and so easily. Unless you sweep (like Moore, Streep, Zellweger) it’s almost impossible to win without being in a top contender.
I regret moving McDormand down in my predictions at the last minute (I thought considering her might be wishful thinking lol) but really McDormand’s win should have been obvious in hindsight. She won one of the precursors and was in the Best Picture winner like Ali and Swank. I thought Mulligan might be the one to pull a Colman but McDormand did it instead.
Speaking of Colman I feel quite confident in saying she finished second. I’m glad I never wavered in confidence in The Father. As soon as I saw this film I felt quite confident it would be a strong contender because of how emotionally resonant the themes were because of the pandemic and because we’ve seen viewing tastes largely split in two as a result of the pandemic (on the one you have the more escapist and light hearted pieces like Bridgerton and Borat and on the other you have heavier material like Promising Young Woman, The Father, Pieces of a Woman etc). Yuh-jung Youn deservingly won but part of the reason why was because Minari was a widely seen Best Picture contender. If Minari missed Best Picture I do think the fact The Father more or less came second and the strength of Colman’s performance both in the film and awards season kept her in the top 2. The fact she got in at SAG (which as someone who was so optimistic about this film all season long, I was shocked to see) over Amanda Seyfried in spite of Colman not being a big star like Seyfried and the fact her performance was subdued, is a testament to her strength.
I think Mulligan was also second like Colman was in supporting actress (although maybe not as clear a second as Colman). Whilst I feel quite confident in saying The Father was second, I do think based on its nominations haul, Fennell’s win and Mulligan’s candidacy that she was probably second. I think Davis and Bakalova were third (although there is an interesting argument to be made that Davis was second). Both of their films missed Picture but probably just and both gave acclaimed showy performances that had passionate supporters. The reason I’ve been so sceptical about Close and Day from when their films embargos lifted is because they were already in worse positions than Christie and Close (in 2018) because their films weren’t very acclaimed. They simply gave showy and acclaimed performances in panned under seen films and I feel quite content saying they were 4th. Especially with Day’s SAG and BAFTA snubs and the fact Close couldn’t bring Amy Adams along with her in spite of Adams making SAG and the BAFTA long list (I imagine she would have been nominated at BAFTA under the old system).
To cut a long story short what I’m trying to say is that whilst having a performance that inspires so much passion hasn’t hurt someone like McDormand or Cotillard or Colman in their paths to wins, being in a stronger contender generally tends to help. I had seen multiple arguments suggesting that being in a strong contender doesn’t matter because “this category is Best Actress and not Picture” but in races that aren’t so clear cut, are open and/or weak, it really does! I mean part of why J-Lo and Zhao Shuzhen had little chance last year was because their films never really took off as Best Picture contenders. Same with Richard E. Grant and Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood).
FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!April 26, 2021 at 2:45 pm #1204230160
Not everything is about race but i find it weird to tell a black woman who’s playing the titular character and who’s sets up the whole movie to go supporting due to screen time but Hopkins in silence of the lambs with his less screen time can get an Oscar win in lead hmm.April 26, 2021 at 2:47 pm #1204230170
I am glad Viola stuck to Lead. She won a freaking SAG award, that alone justifies her placement. She could have lost this Oscar to Frances by just 5 votes! And she will be winning her 2nd (and I believe even 3rd Oscar) in the future. So why should she have pushed herself in Supporting?
Periodt.April 26, 2021 at 2:57 pm #1204230194
Not everything is about race but i find it weird to tell a black woman who’s playing the titular character and who’s sets up the whole movie to go supporting due to screen time but Hopkins in silence of the lambs with his less screen time can get an Oscar win in lead hmm.
I have always believed that Anthony Hopkins ought to have won for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR for The Silence of the Lambs! Jodie Foster was the only lead in that movie. I disliked that movie but thought Hopkins was great in his small short yet memorable role. I remember back in 1992 many people felt that he was engaging in category fraud and I can’t remember which awards body it was but one did place him in supporting (rightly so).
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