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Oscars 2021 Ceremony Reactions (Part 4)

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    wolfali
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    #1204244235

    People still on this vote splitting thing? I’m willing to bet Frances got an overwhelming majority of votes if voters were still inclined to give Nomadland 3 Oscars. Similarly at BAFTA Nomadland lost adapted there and voters swung for Frances in actress.

    Frances won because it was a split open race, her performance had passion and she had the most visibility due to being in the Best Picture frontrunner. Even if Mulligan was nominated at BAFTA and won (which I do think would have happened because why else did PYW win British Film over The Father), McDormand still would have won.

    It’s a similar thing with Anthony Hopkins. I think what’s worth baring in mind in split open races is the performer with the most passion + visibility always prevails. The industry was obsessed with Olivia Colman’s performance in The Favourite, she had 2 key precursor wins and her film had 10 Oscar nominations. La Vie en Rose was a bigger contender than Away from Her.

    It’s with this that I feel quite confident in saying that Davis and Mulligan (whichever way you want to put them) were second and third and Day and Kirby were fourth and fifth. With no in person campaigning it was a game of pure visibility and passion and this year’s results kind of proved that you can’t win as the lone nominee of your film unless you sweep.

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    SN
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    #1204244252

    Even if Mulligan was nominated at BAFTA and won (which I do think would have happened because why else did PYW win British Film over The Father), McDormand still would have won.

    I really think Frances would still have won BAFTA if Mulligan was nominated. PYW winning British Film is no evidence Mulligan would’ve won there. The Original Screenplay + British Film combo was perfectly possible. Frances would still have won with BAFTA only just like Hopkins. BAFTA predicted Cottilard and Colman upsets. They’d still have predicted McDormand without the jury.

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    wolfali
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    #1204244254

    I really think Frances would still have won BAFTA if Mulligan was nominated. PYW winning British Film is no evidence Mulligan would’ve won there. The Original Screenplay + British Film combo was perfectly possible. Frances would still have won with BAFTA only just like Hopkins. BAFTA predicted Cottilard and Colman upsets. They’d still have predicted McDormand without the jury.

    Could be. But we’ll never know I guess.

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    Nameizmann
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    #1204245417

    I think it’s the other way around with the Academy’s growing international membership.

    Yep but i think it’s both ways

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