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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 10)

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    Chris Beachum
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    May 22nd, 2011
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    #1204196332

    Continue in Part 10.

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    ArtIsntEasy
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    Dec 17th, 2011
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    #1204196346

    As I said in the last thread before it got closed:

    I’m still predicting Boseman at the moment. I just suspect that the sentiment in Hollywood will carry the day for him but I can’t deny that it is very tempting to consider (and also possible) that Hopkins might get a last minute surge.

    I just don’t see how anyone can watch that performance and not be wowed by him.

    Hopkins and Ahmed are easily the two strongest performances in this category. Yeun is a comfortable third.

    “The art of making art is putting it together...”

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    alittle03
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    Sep 16th, 2020
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    #1204196356

    What with these secret ballots coming out that are unmasking some real passion for Hopkins (not sure how much faith to place in them, but still something to consider) and Hopkins winning the BAFTA yesterday, I don’t think Boseman is as win-locked as we were once led to believe. I think what we have here now is a situation of sentimentality for Boseman vs. passion for Hopkins. I’m interested to see how this plays out.

     

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    Jason Travis
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    #1204196366

    Another thought- If Chadwick wins, he would be the first actor to win the Oscar for Lead Actor with no Best Picture nomination since Jeff Bridges in Crazy/Heart. That was in 2009-10. And that was the FIRST year voters expanded the best picture nominees from 5 to 10 in decades. Granted, Bridges also won a Career award. But the academy doesn’t do that as much. They really vote for the work now. We have a wonderful diverse branch of new members. And it seems now a days, being in a Best Picture nominee is more important then it was 10 years ago. It means your film has more support from the branches. And Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom not only failed a best picture nomination, it got no writing or directing nods. The Father is up for best film, actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, film editing and Production Design! The latter two especially means the academy WAS paying attention, and DID watch the movie. The editing is so fluent, you never see it. Incredible. The Art Direction is very important to the story. I won’t say why for those who haven’t screened it.

    Some of my friends complain they won’t watch The Father because it costs $20 to screen. You pay more for your Uber Eats order! Support the art and watch these movies. I respect someone who can say “I am picking Chadwick because I really DO think his performance is the best.” Not because of the other reasons.

    And again, it’s an insult to say Hopkins won because it’s a British film. That’s an insult to the academy and Anthony himself. Many of the over the pond voters are also Oscar voters. We also have voters from all around the world. If you’re nominated for an acting Oscar and you’re from Japan, guess what? You’re a voter, and you don’t have to live in America to fill out your ballot.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
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    FYC: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    Woody
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    Feb 9th, 2020
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    #1204196369

    Hopefully Anthony can pull an upset and win

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    wolfali
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    #1204196387

    My personal ranking of the performances:

    1. Riz Ahmed
    2. Anthony Hopkins
    3. Gary Oldman
    4. Chadwick Boseman
    5. Steven Yeun

    My likelihood to win prediction:

    1. Chadwick Boseman
    2. Anthony Hopkins
    3. Riz Ahmed
    4. Steven Yeun
    5. Gary Oldman

    I don’t see a world where Chadwick loses.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    crabbie
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    #1204196396

    So many people are overthinking this. Boseman is not locked for the Oscar but he will still win the Oscar. It seems like people have forgotten how BAFTA snubbed Dallas Buyers Club acting Oscar winners or BAFTA ending Jeff Bridges sweep. Black Panther was nominated for 1 BAFTA. At the Oscars, Black Panther was nominated for 7 Oscars and won 3. AMPAS obviously loved Black Panther very much and that goodwill will translate to Boseman’s win at the Oscars. At the end of the day, BAFTA rallies behind their British veterans even when it goes against the eventual Oscar winners.

     

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Lady Jane Grey
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    #1204196478

    At the Oscars, Black Panther was nominated for 7 Oscars and won 3. AMPAS obviously loved Black Panther very much and that goodwill will translate to Boseman’s win at the Oscars.

    I don’t see the correlation here. Because Black Panther got a Picture nod and several technicals = Chadwick is winning? That makes zero sense. This goodwill argument isn’t a thing. If Glenn Close’s entire career couldn’t carry her to an Oscar despite being against a newcomer, then I fail to see how Black Panther goodwill does the same. If Boseman wins, he wins because voters believe he gave the best performance, not because they feel some need to reward him for Black Panther two years after the fact.

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    crabbie
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    #1204196492

    I don’t see the correlation here. Because Black Panther got a Picture nod and several technicals = Chadwick is winning? That makes zero sense. This goodwill argument isn’t a thing. If Glenn Close’s entire career couldn’t carry her to an Oscar despite being against a newcomer, then I fail to see how Black Panther goodwill does the same. If Boseman wins, he wins because voters believe he gave the best performance, not because they feel some need to reward him for Black Panther two years after the fact.

    Glenn Close has more respect with the acting branch than the entire body considering her previous nomination was for a film that only got 2 nominations at the Oscars. I’m not arguing Black Panther Oscars is why Boseman will win–he has a whole other narrative besides that. But I am pointing how the Oscars will be more sympathetic to Boseman’s legacy than the BAFTA was since Black Panther underperformed significantly there. BAFTA voters simply preferred Hopkin’s performance over Boseman’s legacy narrative whose legacy in Black Panther was not as esteemed in Britain as it was in America.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204196498

    That BAFTA win for Anthony Hopkins gave me a small tiny glimmer of hope that the Best Actor race can be salvaged… but I know it’s going to go to you know who – the only one who I don’t think ought to be nominated!!! Oh well, maybe next year will go better for me personally!!! (;

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    Jason Travis
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    #1204196502

    So many people are overthinking this. Boseman is not locked for the Oscar but he will still win the Oscar. It seems like people have forgotten how BAFTA snubbed Dallas Buyers Club acting Oscar winners or BAFTA ending Jeff Bridges sweep. Black Panther was nominated for 1 BAFTA. At the Oscars, Black Panther was nominated for 7 Oscars and won 3. AMPAS obviously loved Black Panther very much and that goodwill will translate to Boseman’s win at the Oscars. At the end of the day, BAFTA rallies behind their British veterans even when it goes against the eventual Oscar winners.

    I respect this, and see how they rally around their winners. However, Anthony’s performance in The Father goes beyond “being British.” Voters also don’t like being told how to vote, and it’s evident when we see victories that suddenly aren’t just politically based. There is a surge of love coming for Anthony at just the right moment, and he is 83 years old. He may not have another chance either, like Chadwick.

    Voters are going to pick who they want to win.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
    17K Subscribers, 33 Million Views

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204196507

    My personal ranking of the performances:

    1. Riz Ahmed
    2. Anthony Hopkins
    3. Gary Oldman
    4. Chadwick Boseman
    5. Steven Yeun

    My likelihood to win prediction:

    1. Chadwick Boseman
    2. Anthony Hopkins
    3. Riz Ahmed
    4. Steven Yeun
    5. Gary Oldman

    I don’t see a world where Chadwick loses.

    Unfortunately I don’t either ): I would only flip Steven Yeun from 5th to either 2nd or 3rd and then I agree with your order of preference completely.

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    #1204196529

    This is the seventh time this century that SAG and BAFTA gave their Best Actor trophy to two different people. The previous six times were:

    2016: Denzel Washington (SAG)/Casey Affleck (BAFTA) – Affleck wins the Oscar
    2013: Matthew McConaughey (SAG)/Chiwetel Ejiofor (BAFTA) – McConaughey wins the Oscar
    2009: Jeff Bridges (SAG)/ Colin Firth (BAFTA) – Bridges wins the Oscar
    2008: Sean Penn (SAG)/Mickey Rourke (BAFTA) – Penn wins the Oscar
    2003: Johnny Depp (SAG)/Bill Murray (BAFTA) – Neither wins the Oscar
    2000: Benicio del Toro (SAG)/Jamie Bell (BAFTA) – Neither wins the Oscar

    It must be noted that in 2000, SAG awarded Best Actor to a nominee who was nominated for (and would win) Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars, whilst BAFTA awarded Best Actor to a nominee that wasn’t nominated at the Oscars at all.

    The 2003 race does seem particularly odd to me, someone who wasn’t following the Oscars back then. The eventual Oscar winner, Sean Penn, won at the Golden Globes and at the Critics’ Choice and his film, Mystic River was nominated for Best Picture at both places. Mystic River was also nominated for SAG Ensemble, but Penn lost there (does anyone here have any idea why?). Mystic River didn’t get a Best Film nomination at BAFTA, so it makes somewhat sense that he lost there too and to Bill Murray for Lost in Translation, which did get a Best Film nomination at BAFTA. (Penn was also double-nominated that year at BAFTA, for Mystic River and 21 Grams.)

    Those two odd races aside, though, in three of the remaining four races, the SAG winner went on to win the Oscar. 2016 was an outlier since the Brits yet again didn’t nominate Washington, and also since Washington might’ve won at SAG since he was overdue there. Most importantly, though, Affleck had won every precursor but SAG. Similarly, in 2013 and 2009, McConaughey (like Washington, wasn’t BAFTA-nominated) and Bridges both won every other precursor but BAFTA. 2008 was a more contentious race, with Penn winning at SAG and Critics’ Choice and Rourke winning at the Globes and BAFTA, but Penn’s SAG win proved to be enough to trump Rourke’s BAFTA win at the Oscars.

    This race seems more analogous to the years in which Bridges, McConaughey, and even Affleck won Oscars. All three swept all but one precursor, and the former two specifically swept all but BAFTA. Looking at this stat, it does seem like Boseman will be safe.

    I will say that this year might prove to be unique given Ma Rainey‘s BP snub, as well as the late surge for Hopkins and The Father. However, I think that the urgency to reward Boseman (who, if you ask me, gives a very worthy performance, even though I do think Hopkins is better) will ultimately give him the edge and give him the Oscar. It’s not quite as locked in as it was pre-BAFTA, but I say he’s still pretty secure. One thing I think we might all agree on is that this BAFTA loss is one of the worst things that could’ve happened for Boseman this season, in addition to being one of the best things that could’ve happened for Hopkins.

    (PS. I don’t agree that Boseman v Hopkins is like Colman v Close or Streep v Davis. Not that Hopkins can’t win, but Colman and Streep both won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. In Streep’s case, she beat Davis twice at the Globes and at BAFTA, before beating her a third time at the Oscars. Colman and Streep were also giving baitier performances than Hopkins is, playing notable English historical figures.)

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    crabbie
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    #1204196531

    I respect this, and see how they rally around their winners. However, Anthony’s performance in The Father goes beyond “being British.”

    I agree with this. He delivers the second best performance of the year for me after Delroy Lindo. But being on British turf gave him the advantage even though it was not the ONLY factor in winning.

    Voters also don’t like being told how to vote, and it’s evident when we see victories that suddenly aren’t just politically based.

    This did not stop a lot of acting sweepers from winning. Certainly did not stop Sandra Bullock’s white savior acting role sweep when Carey Mulligan won a BAFTA. Glenn Close was not a clear sweep since she tied at Critics Choice. Politically based award is pushing it. It’s more of a legacy award which was also backed by the critics.

    There is a surge of love coming for Anthony at just the right moment, and he is 83 years old. He may not have another chance either, like Chadwick.

    Just last year Hopkins was nominated. He also has an upcoming movie featuring Oscar winners of cinematography and costumes. He will return. Boseman does not have another chance.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Victor Cruz
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    Sep 8th, 2013
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    #1204196535

    Come through Hopkins beat the sympathy narrative.

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