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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 10)

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    SN
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    #1204202986

    I understand that this movie means a lot to a bunch of people, but let’s not exaggerate here. The industry clearly didn’t go for it as much as this post suggested it and the general audience reception was average all around (7.3 on IMDB, 79% on Rotten Tomatoes, 3.7 on Letterboxd, 6.3 on Metascore).

    When I said industry cared about it, I wasn’t talking about awards, but on the impact it caused on the movie industry as a whole. It still had a BP nomination after all, first ever for a superhero film.

    And sorry but $700 million domestic (4th best ever, even more than Infinity War the same year) means much more than whatever score it has on IMDb or RT. It had one of the best legs for a blockbuster in recent memory because word of mouth was great for it (A+ cinemascore). If audiences didn’t care about it, it wouldn’t have had such great holds weekend after weekend. Everyone who closely follows box office knows audiences wanted to see it and liked it, specially in the US.

    It was never seen as a great movie.

    That’s your personal opinion but many thought it was a great film.

    I also remember Letitia Wright, Danai Gurira, and shockingly Michael B. Jordan (I thought he was the weakest) highlighted in the cast, not Chadwick Boseman.

    That’s not true. The cast was praised as whole and most people agreed he carried the movie very well. It wasn’t a Dark Knight scenario where the protagonist is clearly overshadowed.

    His performance in Black Panther didn’t generate Oscar buzz, so it’s kind of surreal to think that all of a sudden, his Black Panther’s legacy (that, like I said, is meaningful for many people) would be the primary reason why he will win in a few days.

    So your argument is that his legacy is not a reason why he’ll win the Oscar just because he wasn’t nominated as Black Panther? That doesn’t make sense to me. Many icons in the past weren’t nominated for the performances that made them beloved by the general public.

    I really think many people genuinely find his performance worth an Oscar, and I’m not trying to say he’s winning just because he’s dead. But the fact he was a beloved actor with a fantastic career ahead of him and he’ll never have a chance to win an Oscar again will certainly have an impact on this decision.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204203015

    So your argument is that his legacy is not a reason why he’ll win the Oscar just because he wasn’t nominated as Black Panther? That doesn’t make sense to me. Many icons in the past weren’t nominated for the performances that made them beloved by the general public. I really think many people genuinely find his performance worth an Oscar, and I’m not trying to say he’s winning just because he’s dead. But the fact he was a beloved actor with a fantastic career ahead of him and he’ll never have a chance to win an Oscar again will certainly have an impact on this decision.

    Awards love, general audience reception, and general consensus all matter if you want to describe a movie’s success. Sure, the industry thought it was an important film in representation and it has a cultural impact on many, but this film was never seen as a great movie by the consensus (see audience reactions & lack of Oscar nominations in key categories), and that is something that has nothing to do with my personal opinion (I thought it was a good movie).

    The casting was surely highlighted, but the individual work by Jordan, Wright, and Gurira was indeed highly praised. Boseman wasn’t singled out as much as these three, and his performance wasn’t seen as remarkable or Oscar-worthy.

    But yeah, my argument is that his Black Panther legacy has nothing to do with his possible win here. I think his performance in Ma Rainey might just do the trick by itself.

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    marty
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    #1204203264

    Not people trying to pretend Black Panther wasn’t a cultural phenomenon now… The $1.3 billion worldwide gross, $600 million domestic gross, and 6 Oscar nominations say far more than IMDB or RT audience scores ever could.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Monty
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    #1204203296

    I feel much more comfortable predicting Hopkins for the Oscar now. The BAFTA win is huge for Hopkins. Boseman was declared the frontrunner before any voters even saw Hopkins’ performance and stayed there until BAFTA. In other words, the voters are being told to vote for Boseman. Hopkins and the Father are gaining momentum at the right time when the voters actually saw the performance. His performance is gonna age like wine because dementia is an timeless issue and many people get a parent or two with dementia (like Jodie Foster said to Hopkins in interview). Voters will connect with his performance more than Boseman’s. And we don’t need to mention about the Father’s overall strength in Oscar nomination anymore. All Best Actor winning performance comes from a BP nominee since the expansion of BP category.
    Hopkins is no longer a NGNG prediction. He is very likely the Olivia Colman and the Marion Cotillard.

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    Lady Jane Grey
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    #1204203333

    Black Panther was an overall tragically mediocre film in an otherwise pathetically trash pantheon of popcorn flick Marvel films. It was only nominated for Best Picture because of the backlash from the Best Popular Film category, which shows that AMPAS never took that garbage film seriously. Its legacy will be selling toys and making a ton of money. Nothing more.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204203495

    The $1.3 billion worldwide gross, $600 million domestic gross, 

    700M domestic gross. Stickler for boxoffice numbers here.

     

    That said, this has been a boring category for over half of the year because winner is obvious. And when people are bored, they come up with upset scenarios. We’ve seen that happen over and over. Boseman is winning. He’s not the best in this category but best don’t always win so nothing unusual here. It’s a sentimental win that will make voters feel good about themselves, keep Twitter happy, and then the next day they will look back and go “I feel like a bad person to say this but ___________should have won instead.” Like every time when you know that there’s a better candidate or candidates but the one you pick has that feel-good/this is the right thing to do at this moment (though not necessarily long term) thing going on and that’s what awards are about, the timely not timeless. That’s why many wins don’t age well.

    So yeah, while it’s fun to speculate about the upset, it won’t happen. It’s over but it’s also a long way til Apr 25 so what else to do to bide time? 🙂

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204203565

    Not people trying to pretend Black Panther wasn’t a cultural phenomenon now… The $1.3 billion worldwide gross, $600 million domestic gross, and 6 Oscar nominations say far more than IMDB or RT audience scores ever could.

    6 Oscar nominations from which 5 was for creative categories. No audience ratings over 80% for such obviously liked genre film. Yes, it tells a lot about Black Panther‘s reception.

    People cannot separate important & praised casting & cultural importance and the actual films’ worth based on the general audience, critics, industry consensus.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204203586

    I feel much more comfortable predicting Hopkins for the Oscar now. The BAFTA win is huge for Hopkins. Boseman was declared the frontrunner before any voters even saw Hopkins’ performance and stayed there until BAFTA. In other words, the voters are being told to vote for Boseman. Hopkins and the Father are gaining momentum at the right time when the voters actually saw the performance. His performance is gonna age like wine because dementia is an timeless issue and many people get a parent or two with dementia (like Jodie Foster said to Hopkins in interview). Voters will connect with his performance more than Boseman’s. And we don’t need to mention about the Father’s overall strength in Oscar nomination anymore. All Best Actor winning performance comes from a BP nominee since the expansion of BP category.
    Hopkins is no longer a NGNG prediction. He is very likely the Olivia Colman and the Marion Cotillard.

    I so want you to be right about this! But I am still predicting Boseman – the narrative is too strong and there is a herd mentality among a majority of academy members – they do as they are told and they have been told they must vote for the dead guy. I would cast my vote for Riz Ahmed but Anthony Hopkins would be a superb choice too!!!!

    I wonder if an ordinals system were used in the voting if the results would be really different? I think voters would be more honest by simply doing a 1-5 vote and a more accurate winner would happen (and very different winners I strongly suspect!)

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    SN
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    #1204203602

    IMDb and RT audience score are so important that nobody talks about 1917 these days despite its 8.3 score on IMDb and 88% RT audience score.

    But sure, $700M domestic means nothing. That’s better than every superhero film except Avengers: Endgame but yeah, audiences didn’t care about Black Panther. Who cares about word of mouth (3.5x multiplier, A+ CinemaScore) if IMDb and RT scores aren’t high?

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    Singsongoflove01
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    #1204203621

    I so want you to be right about this! But I am still predicting Boseman – the narrative is too strong and there is a herd mentality among a majority of academy members – they do as they are told and they have been told they must vote for the dead guy. I would cast my vote for Riz Ahmed but Anthony Hopkins would be a superb choice too!!!! I wonder if an ordinals system were used in the voting if the results would be really different? I think voters would be more honest by simply doing a 1-5 vote and a more accurate winner would happen (and very different winners I strongly suspect!)

    I don’t think Hopkins will win. He can literally win again. Boseman’s chances end here. He was a young, promising star cut down in his prime. That, coupled with the racial tensions are going to give him the Oscar. I think both winners for actor and actress will come from non best picture nominees (I think all four acting winners will be people of color).

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204203670

    6 Oscar nominations from which 5 was for creative categories. No audience ratings over 80% for such obviously liked genre film. Yes, it tells a lot about Black Panther‘s reception. People cannot separate important & praised casting & cultural importance and the actual films’ worth based on the general audience, critics, industry consensus.

    I don’t think that BP aged well and Picture nom just gave it the overrated aura that happens to most nominees and especially winners, but it was treated as the second coming back in 2018. That said, while it isn’t a sole or main reason why Boseman will win, it gives a needed blocbuster to Boseman’s mediocre underseen resume. Without it, he wouldn’t be a household name and therefore no fuss about awarding him.  Thanks to it, we have this pretense that he was Denzel/Smith/Freeman stature which he absolutely was not.

        there is a herd mentality among a majority of academy members – they do as they are told and they have been told they must vote for the dead guy. 

    That’s not how it works though. You can tell people how to vote but they don’t have to listen. What really happens is that they could feel that awarding (lesser) performance because of sympathetic reasons (will never have a chance, was sick while filming yet did it like a pro, was a nice professional person in real life, his character in the movie is sympathetic) is the right thing to do at this particular moment. Awards are not concerned with “how a win will be seen 10 years from now, will it age or not?”. They award what they like now and/or what they think is the right movie/person to award now given current circumstances/climate/etc. It’s no conspiracy just human nature. I know that ____ is better but he will have another chance for he’s young and/or he’s already a legend with an award, while this actor will never have a chance for he was cut at the very moment his career started to take off in a big way.  It’s perfectly understandable.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204203701

    IMDb and RT audience score are so important that nobody talks about 1917 these days despite its 8.3 score on IMDb and 88% RT audience score. But sure, $700M domestic means nothing. That’s better than every superhero film except Avengers: Endgame but yeah, audiences didn’t care about Black Panther. Who cares about word of mouth (3.5x multiplier, A+ CinemaScore) if IMDb and RT scores aren’t high?

    You seem really obsessed with box office results, and you still don’t seem to understand my point. I didn’t say people didn’t care to watch the film. I said they watched the film (box office) and didn’t find it remarkable, and that it has one of the weakest audience reactions among MCU films. I also didn’t say the industry didn’t find its casting revolutionary or that it doesn’t speak to a certain crowd, or that it wasn’t/isn’t a cultural phenomenon, but who are we kidding? It was never considered a great film that has to be rewarded for its brilliant direction, screenplay, or acting. So no, I don’t think voters will vote for Boseman because of how much they loved him in Black Panther the way I don’t think Winslet or DiCaprio won Oscars because Titanic was a phenomenon.

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    SN
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    #1204203722

    You seem really obsessed with box office results, and you still don’t seem to understand my point. I didn’t say people didn’t care to watch the film. I said they watched the film (box office) and didn’t find it remarkable, and that it has one of the weakest audience reactions among MCU films.

    I’m not obsessed with box office, but you’re obsessed with useless IMDb and RT ratings.

    Black Panther wasn’t just a box office hit, it was a leggy box office hit with great word of mouth. If people who watched it didn’t find it remarkable in some way, it would’ve had average legs and average word of mouth.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204203744

    I’m not obsessed with box office, but you’re obsessed with useless IMDb and RT ratings. Black Panther wasn’t just a box office hit, it was a leggy box office hit with great word of mouth. If people who watched it didn’t find it remarkable in some way, it would’ve had average legs and average word of mouth.

    Audience ratings are not useless (like who are we kidding?), and I also mentioned Metascore and Letterboxd. It’s the same reception everywhere. And I’m pretty sure most cinephiles would tell you the same.

    Also, if you don’t want to talk about audience ratings, talk about awards that can show the industry love. As far as the key mentions god, the European industry mostly snubbed the film all around (AACTA, BAFTA), while the European journalists gave it the same treatment as the AMPAS (in an extended lineup). A Best Picture mention for the whole phenomenon. That’s it.

    Look, I don’t want to take away its achievement that I mentioned plenty of times. But it’s literally untrue that this film is “beloved by the audience and industry” (the initial comment that started this discussion). It’s liked for sure, but beloved? I don’t see how. The audience ratings & the general industry support & consensus show it otherwise.

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    Lady Jane Grey
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    #1204203767

    I don’t think Hopkins will win. He can literally win again. Boseman’s chances end here. He was a young, promising star cut down in his prime. That, coupled with the racial tensions are going to give him the Oscar. I think both winners for actor and actress will come from non best picture nominees (I think all four acting winners will be people of color).

    So both the reasons you gave for him winning are external factors beyond his control and have absolutely nothing to do with his performance, lol. The majority of voters will simply vote for what they feel is the best performance, not for what will best reflect the current social and political climate/because he’s dead.

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