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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 10)

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    Crackleking
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    #1204199879

    Of course and I don’t present it as an absolute argument that could show us the winner. I’m really torn, I can’t fathom Ma Rainey’s winning 3 Oscars (Chad, costumes and make-up). Anyone predicting both Hopkins and The Father for screenplay?

    I am. Screenplay makes sense as it is the most writerly, like Manchester by the sea beating La La Land, even though the latter was a stronger best picture contender. Hopkins while losing GG,CC,SAG can still win as he was never gonna win there. The globes would never risk the backlash, CC are sheep and SAG likely had visibility issues. However, BAFTA and AMPAS have different mindsets and aren’t afraid to go rogue. It’s clear that they not only love the film more the Ma Rainey but they probably adore Hopkins performance more than Boseman’s. While Hollywood will come to bat for Boseman, the older members and steak eaters whom don’t care about narrative will show their support for Hopkins. It will be close, but so was Close vs Colman, Rylance vs Stallone, Bacall vs Binoche and yet the more acclaimed performance in the stronger film still prevailed.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204200541

    When talking about ratings, do people mean for this year or next year’s? Because Best Actor is presented near the end of the show anyhow, so the winner wouldn’t affect it by that point.

    This. And everyone knows that including this particular Boseman stan who will have to live with Boseman win on the least watched, least popular Oscar show ever in history. So no, awarding Boseman for a flop movie is not going to improve ratings any more than an upset by Hopkins or another is going to suddenly crash the ratings. They are going to be terrible because nobody cares about this year’s movies, actors, directors, best boys,etc. They didn’t care to see nominated movies or movies with nominated performances, they didn’t care for precursors, they don’t care for the Oscars. It’s going to be ratings disaster no matter who wins but in this category Boseman will win.

    Well, Joaquin and Eddie lost the AACTA, I think this award is not a huge indicator of who will win the Oscar.

    No award is an indicator in isolation. It isn’t like all members of either awards body vote for 1 person only. Sometimes it feels as if some people who predict the winners think that winning SAG or BAFTA (awards with some overlap with AMPAS) only voted for X or that they overwhelmingly voted for X though gap between X and Y could be very small. That’s why we have the “Close won SAG is winning the Oscar…wait what the hell happened? Why did Coleman win?” because AMPAS isn’t all SAG, and all of SAG didn’t vote just for Close, etc. Same goes for AACTA, BAFTA, other awards.

    I mean obviously but people use AACTA to indicate international support especially in the actress race. I don’t really agree with that since its such a new precursor thats been wrong on many occasions.

    Oh but we know why it’s used in Actress race. When a favorite isn’t sweeping, any award that previously held zero interest to predictors suddenly becomes the most important one because the favorite won it. point still stands, nothing exists in a vaccuum. If she wins it won’t be because AACTA predicted it for we don’t know who voted and how, it could be American AMPAS members that gave her the edge.

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1204200930

    Darlings, Demented Hopins is winning. If Trumpeter was alive, there would be no way his hammy shallow performance would get a win. He would have struggled to even earn a nod. The Academy doesn’t give a damn about backlash anymore and voters are voting for what they like despite precursors (Moonlight, Parasite and Colman are huge examples) and they clearly loved The Father a lot more I mean they ignored Ma Rainey’s Black Boredom in the main categories for a reason.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204200936

    If Best Actor is presented on the early side, to me that will be a giveaway that Hopkins is winning, and they’re trying to bury it. It’ll be like 2007 when (then virtually unknown) Marion Cotillard won – I remember thinking that award was super early in the broadcast. Then again maybe people would be pissed and turn off the TV, so they’ll actually announce it post-Best Picture. Who knows???

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    #1204200955
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    George Ehret
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    #1204200976

    Sometimes yes, but then there was also Sean Penn winning his 2nd over Mickey Rourke and Meryl Streep winning her 3rd over Viola Davis.

    Those cases are a little different. Milk was probably the runner-up for Best Picture and Streep had the comeback narrative behind her and the British block giving her support. While Hopkins did win the BAFTA, The Father lost British Film to PYW. That could mean the BAFTA was just a British thing.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    jez89
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    #1204201106

    Darlings, Demented Hopins is winning. If Trumpeter was alive, there would be no way his hammy shallow performance would get a win. He would have struggled to even earn a nod. The Academy doesn’t give a damn about backlash anymore and voters are voting for what they like despite precursors (Moonlight, Parasite and Colman are huge examples) and they clearly loved The Father a lot more I mean they ignored Ma Rainey’s Black Boredom in the main categories for a reason.

    Ma Rainey’s Black Boredom lol. You are right, it was boring. If there’s anything a 90 minute film shouldn’t be, it’s boring.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204201119

    I still think people are getting their hopes up for no reason. I’m sure many will vote based on merit, but people assume right away that voting based on merit is equal to voting for Hopkins. Like I preferred both him and Ahmed to Boseman (although I loved all three of them), but I’m pretty sure that there are Boseman fans out there, who feel that he gave the best performance in the category. That AACTA win is proof that there are fans of his performance other than the USA voters. And remember, that AACTA gave its Supporting Actress to Olivia Colman this year, so it’s not like they didn’t like the film. They simply went Boseman over Hopkins.

    I’d love to see Hopkins and especially Ahmed (it’d actually put him on the map for even better roles, and help his career status) winning here, but I’m totally cool with Boseman’s victory as well. I think the latter is going to win, though.

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    mrajolie
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    #1204201181

    Anthony Hopkins is 83 ! I pray to god that he doesn’t stop acting or slows down anytime soon. But I’m not necessarily sure if he’ll be lucky enough to be offered a film as strong as The Father in the foreseeable future! I mean when was the last time he won any acting award? It was 30 years ago which confirms how good parts are quite rare in this business, especially to someone his age.

    His performance in The Father was at a league of its own. I find it ridiculous how it’s even debatable if he should be winning the Oscar at this point. I mean he probably won’t given the heavy campaigning Netflix is doing for Chadwick, pushing the sentimental narrative of how this is the last chance to honor him and how he was terminally ill while filming the movie! That’s no reason to hand someone an ACTING award? You honor their legacy by giving them an honorary Oscar in appreciation of the life they led and their entire own body of work.

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    Jason Travis
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    #1204201260

    I could see Ahmed spoil, but I am sticking with Hopkins for now. Do we know what percentage of the academy is British, or rather- are also BAFTA members?

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
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    FYC: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204201299

    So, let’s see:

    Chadwick is in heaven, so he won’t attend the ceremony

    Anthony won’t attend the ceremony

    Honestly, just give it to Riz. Please. Out of respect for the Oscars!

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204201331

    The Globes, SAG and BAFTAs recorded historic low ratings, and people keep acting like Oscars won’t follow suit…

    I also think, people forget that a lot of individuals just watch the award shows on streaming websites. I stopped ordering cable like 5 years ago, so I go on streaming sites.

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    The Girls' Room
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    #1204201351

    Okay, based on this and the other thread where he trashes Davis and Day, and steals Crabbie’s avatar lol, it’s clear TrumpBiden has reached a new level of trolling and bigotry.

    Everyone report spam <333

    watch I May Destroy You

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    SN
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    #1204201358

    So, let’s see:

    Chadwick is in heaven, so he won’t attend the ceremony

    Anthony won’t attend the ceremony

    Honestly, just give it to Riz. Please. Out of respect for the Oscars!

    And Riz and Oldman will probably be in London. The only Best Actor nominee who’ll attend in the Union Station is Yeun lol

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204201361

    And Riz and Oldman will probably be in London. The only Best Actor nominee who’ll attend in the Union Station is Yeun lol

    Then give it to him.

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