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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 2)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203803626

    Um, it most definitely is not locked. Not when most of the movies haven’t been seen and there is still plenty of confusion about which categories Judas and Chicago 7 will campaign for. People were saying (including myself) that the Supporting Actor line up was the biggest lock of the year and literally an hour later the news dropped about Chadwick going in Lead. For all we know, Hanks could get in, Stanfield could be the Lead push and Kaluuya the Supporting.

    Well, we all know Hopkins, Boseman, and Lindo are getting nominated. As I said before there’s little reason to believe Oldman would be snubbed. And, while it’s technically true that Kaluuya could be pushed to Supporting, all evidence so far is pointing towards him being campaigned in Lead. And we all know that if he campaigns in Lead he will be nominated.

    Meanwhile, Hanks has already been snubbed multiple times for 19 years before finally receiving a SUPPORTING nomination for playing a beloved American figure, Riz Ahmad has too small of a film to receive any major recognition (though I could see him getting a CC nod) and no one in Chicago 7 is an actual lead. I don’t see how any of those contenders are stronger than the Top 5.

    Also, no one was saying that the Top 5 for Supporting Actor was locked. We all said Boseman was locked for the win (because he was) and then he switched categories.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203803629

    How is everyone still sleeping on Kingsley Ben-Adir? His is the most praised performance in a likely Best Picture contender, playing Malcolm X in a very different way from Denzel Washington from what I’ve heard. Granted, he’s not a lock, but he could supersede someone like Delroy Lindo (as much as it pains me to think about) whose film is not a top priority for Netflix and might get lost in the shuffle. I steadfastly held onto Lindo while others started saying he might get snubbed; now I’m not so sure.

    I feel like Ben Adir will be pushed to Supporting, because Lead Actor is so strong and general critic consensus is that all 4 One Night in Miami players are Supporting.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203803631

    The way the love people have for Boseman is being underestimated on here.

    Is that love really being underestimated, though? All I’m seeing is either “Boseman is a lock for the nom” or “Boseman is winning”. I think virtually everyone here recognises that he’s a force to be reckoned with.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203803816

    I feel like Ben Adir will be pushed to Supporting, because Lead Actor is so strong and general critic consensus is that all 4 One Night in Miami players are Supporting.

    I wonder if they’d do that though, since Leslie Odom has a chance to win in supporting, and they may not want to cause a votesplit.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203803973

    I wonder if they’d do that though, since Leslie Odom has a chance to win in supporting, and they may not want to cause a votesplit.

    They’d probably both get in if campaigned supporting to be honest, and then Ben-Adir might be the frontrunner. But so far I don’t see any evidence for Amazon planning this. Ben-Adir isn’t even listed in both categories in the predictions centre and GD is supposed to be in contact with the studios.

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    mf617
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    #1203804088

    The full “Chicago 7” cast going Supporting probably helps Delroy Lindo, who I’ve slotted back into my predictions across the board, though that still necessitates that Netflix gets three nominations and I’m not certain it’ll happen. They had a shot last year and it didn’t happen, but this year is different so who knows. I feel confident it’ll happen at SAG since they go for Netflix. I can see Globes going for a bigger name. I need to wait and see if some of these bubble names like Riz Ahmed and Steven Yeun really break through.

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    Bee
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    #1203804097

    How is everyone still sleeping on Kingsley Ben-Adir? His is the most praised performance in a likely Best Picture contender, playing Malcolm X in a very different way from Denzel Washington from what I’ve heard. Granted, he’s not a lock, but he could supersede someone like Delroy Lindo (as much as it pains me to think about) whose film is not a top priority for Netflix and might get lost in the shuffle. I steadfastly held onto Lindo while others started saying he might get snubbed; now I’m not so sure.

    Chile, I have him in everywhere. He has the showiest performance in the film.

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    David
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    #1203804099

    Chile, I have him in everywhere. He has the showiest performance in the film.

    He does, but he’s gonna struggle in lead especially if Wb runs Kaluuya in lead rather than supporting (I’m thinking they run him supporting). Ben-Adir has a better shot in supporting.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203804101

    I think I’m putting Boseman as my #1 prediction. With Boseman, it just has the most potent narrative – posthumously recognising Boseman, with a Tony-nominated Drama Desk Award winning role, in a film that also has a strong contender for Viola Davis.

    Hopkins will win some awards (I’m thinking BAFTA is on lock), but for Oscar, Boseman is my bet.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    Bee
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    #1203804111

    He does, but he’s gonna struggle in lead especially if Wb runs Kaluuya in lead rather than supporting (I’m thinking they run him supporting). Ben-Adir has a better shot in supporting.

    I don’t know. Judas and the Black Messiah was pushed to next year and since SAG noms are pushed to early February, I wonder if the screeners will be late. Plus, Miami will be stronger than Judas as a contender.

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    David
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    #1203804175

    I don’t know. Judas and the Black Messiah was pushed to next year and since SAG noms are pushed to early February, I wonder if the screeners will be late. Plus, Miami will be stronger than Judas as a contender.

    A writer/producer already confirmed that it will come out before the deadline, roughly around January or beginning of Feb. Also, I disagree on Miami being a stronger contender. I watched Miami and any normal year, this would’ve just gotten an Adapted screenplay nom. I do think it will make a push in supp actor and probably get into picture, but it’s a 7th or 8th slot for me and I can see it missing. I know Judas hasn’t released, but if it is anything like the trailer and the critics love it then it will be a big bp contender for sure. Plus the subject matter and the story of the film is extremely relevant considering the times our country is in.

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    Bee
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    #1203804244

    A writer/producer already confirmed that it will come out before the deadline, roughly around January or beginning of Feb. Also, I disagree on Miami being a stronger contender. I watched Miami and any normal year, this would’ve just gotten an Adapted screenplay nom. I do think it will make a push in supp actor and probably get into picture, but it’s a 7th or 8th slot for me and I can see it missing. I know Judas hasn’t released, but if it is anything like the trailer and the critics love it then it will be a big bp contender for sure. Plus the subject matter and the story of the film is extremely relevant considering the times our country is in.

    Yes, I know that. I’m saying as far as the SAG deadline for nominations go, and with voting from January 11th to Feb. 1st, that’s 3 weeks to get screeners in and even if the film is out, no screeners= no nods (for some reason, this has to get explained every year to people).

    I also saw Miami and I don’t see that as a 7th tier film (what would this even miss to?). That has festival buzz and will get a boost come Christmastime and Amazon sending in screeners on time for voters. That also has a very relevant subject/theme and we already have reviews for it (81 MC) . What you said about Judas possibly being a big Picture contender (which I don’t believe given the track record of the director and News of the World/Billie Holiday sucking up that late breaker hype) is based on your feelings. That seems like a pure acting play to me.

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    jez89
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    #1203804374

    I currently have Chadwick winning, but tweets like this have me very concerned.

    Why do tweets like that concern you? If Hopkins’ performance is truly the best then he should win. Is Boseman’s performance is truly the best then he should win. The award is Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role. It’s not nicest narrative or most bittersweet moment at an Oscar ceremony.

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    diego
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    #1203804380

    Why do tweets like that concern you? If Hopkins’ performance is truly the best then he should win. Is Boseman’s performance is truly the best then he should win. The award is Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role. It’s not nicest narrative or most bittersweet moment at an Oscar ceremony.

    Yes but we all know the Oscars are not about who deserves it the most.

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    jez89
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    #1203804441

    I’m worried Hopkins is going to have the far superior performance and end up losing and that we’ll have months of posters saying “the Academy can’t possibly award an older white male actor when Boseman is the alternative” etc etc

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