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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 2)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203798207

    I actually think The Father is winning the Drama Picture Globe.

    I’d be surprised if that happened, but I still think Colman could pull an upset, especially if Close’s film is garbage. That being said, we do have Seyfried solidly in the mix now.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203798210

    I expect his final performance to be revered on a similar level to Finch’s and Ledger’s.

    I’m not expecting that at all tbh. Which is why I don’t think he’ll beat Hopkins.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203798213

    I’d like to disagree, De Niro was the best performance in the 1976 lineup. Finch’s performance is phenomenal and he would be a great worthy winner in most years though, but De Niro in Taxi Driver is an all-timer. (And this is by no means an unpopular opinion btw).

    But it’s the general concensus that Finch was the best in that lineup. Not to mention, Taxi Driver was and continues to be a very controversial film that many don’t like.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203798216

    I wouldn’t say King’s win was due to her performance being deemed unstoppable. The fact that she was snubbed at SAG directly goes against that idea.

    Don’t get me wrong, I thought she was fantastic and deserving, but what really helped push her to that win was her competition. Stone and Weisz were both amazing, but they obviously split the vote, Adams had a major overdue narrative, but most people seemed lukewarm on her performance, and de Tavira had a strong performance and the right film, but was too much of an unknown to American audiences. All this, combined with Kong’s status as a respected veteran and the year’s critical favorite pushed her to the win.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203798234

    Here’s the last reason Hopkins is a lock: he’s never won a Globe or SAG award before. We all know that, unless you’re Glenn Close, winning the Globe and SAG pretty much cements your status as the Oscar frontrunner nowadays. Do you really think either the HFPA or the Screen Actor’s Guild are going to snub an overdue veteran just to give Boseman his narrative? I don’t think they care that much about Boseman to snub Hopkins for what’s going ot be a monstrous performance.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    RealLyre852
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    #1203798254

    I saw the Father last month at TIFF and I don’t think anyone else will come even close to Hopkins performance wise. but Boseman has a better narrative so he only needs a 6/10 or 7/10 performance to beat Hopkins.

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    David
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    #1203798295

    I saw the Father last month at TIFF and I don’t think anyone else will come even close to Hopkins performance wise. but Boseman has a better narrative so he only needs a 6/10 or 7/10 performance to beat Hopkins.

    Exactly! We all know Hopkins gave the best performance of the year by far, but the Boseman narrative is soooo strong imo. Ever since they released the article on how difficult it was for him to film Ma Rainey due to fatigue from the sessions and treatments he was receiving, he would’ve automatically receive my vote based on that alone. Also, I’m hearing he is fantastic in Ma Rainey and arguably better than Viola, so that also will help him. Yea I get it that Hopkins probably has the better performance, but I think the voters will vote for Boseman solely based off what he has done in the industry plus his performance. His narrative is way stronger and I think it has the ability to trump Hopkins powerful performance.

    Edit: I heard that it was Denzel and Spike that came to this decision for him to be campaigned in lead rather than supporting. I think they’re going for the opportunity of him securing double noms.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203798356

    Yeah but I don’t know how many people would vote for him just because he died. We’ve only had two posthumous winners, and they both had undeniable performances that would’ve won anyway.

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    wolfali
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    #1203798394

    Here’s the last reason Hopkins is a lock: he’s never won a Globe or SAG award before. We all know that, unless you’re Glenn Close, winning the Globe and SAG pretty much cements your status as the Oscar frontrunner nowadays. Do you really think either the HFPA or the Screen Actor’s Guild are going to snub an overdue veteran just to give Boseman his narrative? I don’t think they care that much about Boseman to snub Hopkins for what’s going ot be a monstrous performance.

    Also he’s 99.9% likely to win BAFTA. Not only because of his performance or his recognition from BAFTA in the past but because he’s in the British film with the best chance of winning Best Picture this year (regardless of whether it does or doesn’t). We’ve seen those types of films either over-perform with BAFTA in nominations (Brooklyn) or they either get almost guaranteed or surprise wins (The FavouriteThree BillboardsLion) recently. If Hopkins wins the Globe he’s winning the Oscar (regardless of whether he picks up SAG or not) because he’ll also have the BAFTA like Meryl and Olivia did.

    I’d be surprised if that happened, but I still think Colman could pull an upset, especially if Close’s film is garbage. That being said, we do have Seyfried solidly in the mix now.

    Well here’s the thing. In any normal year The Father might have been a film that might have just scraped Best Picture but there are so many factors in its favour this year. The first of which is that Ammonite (which is what many were expecting to be “the British film that BAFTA rallies behind” this year) has been met with an underwhelming response from critics and people in the industry (in the UK) whilst The Father has taken people by surprise and has been met with raves. Then you have the fact that not only is The Father getting attention for Hopkins’ performance but it is also getting attention because of how high profile recent Academy Award winner Olivia Colman has become. In fact (and I never thought I’d say this) one could say she’s the most high profile and buzziest British female actor working today. She’s received raves for the film so it gives it more legs.

    Then there’s the fact that Colman is probably going to be double nominated for both this and The Crown at the Globes. I think considering how much the HFPA adore her (3 for 3) that she’s winning for at least one if not both of them (even if she loses both the Oscar and the Emmy). That possibility and the fact that all of her projects that she’s been nominated at the Globes for have been nominated in Picture/Series can only help The Father.

    But really the real reason I am predicting The Father to win is because we’ve had massive upsets in this category for the last three years. Three Billboards was 3rd in the predictions centre the night before the Globes. Bohemian Rhapsody and 1917 were 5th and 4th. They all also happened to be films that then went on to over-perform at BAFTA. I think The Father is that film that over-performs this year that people expect will win (or be in top 2) as the awards are given out but then faces the “BAFTA” curse.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203798495

    I’m not expecting that at all tbh. Which is why I don’t think he’ll beat Hopkins.

    This is only based on tea from the few who have already seen Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Doesn’t necessarily mean Boseman will win of course.

    But it’s the general concensus that Finch was the best in that lineup.

    It is? Maybe then, not so much now.

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    Monty
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    #1203798550

    Sir Tony is most likely winning Globe and BAFTA. But I think this race is not over yet. Boseman could still win SAG and Critic’s Choice, giving him momentum going into Oscar.
    We could see African American actors doing pretty well in SAG awards with Viola Davis in 2011, Denzel and Hidden Figures in 2016, Idris Elba in 2015, and Black Panther in 2018 even though they did not win many other precursors.
    We will see.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203798600

    Sir Tony is most likely winning Globe and BAFTA. But I think this race is not over yet. Boseman could still win SAG and Critic’s Choice, giving him momentum going into Oscar. We could see African American actors doing pretty well in SAG awards with Viola Davis in 2011, Denzel and Hidden Figures in 2016, Idris Elba in 2015, and Black Panther in 2018 even though they did not win many other precursors. We will see.

    Watch Anthony and Chadwick tie at Critics Choice.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203798607

    Sir Tony is most likely winning Globe and BAFTA. But I think this race is not over yet. Boseman could still win SAG and Critic’s Choice, giving him momentum going into Oscar. We could see African American actors doing pretty well in SAG awards with Viola Davis in 2011, Denzel and Hidden Figures in 2016, Idris Elba in 2015, and Black Panther in 2018 even though they did not win many other precursors. We will see.

    Hopkins seems pretty likely to win at Critics Choice given that they’ve never awarded him, just like the Globes. Boseman could win CC, but I think they will just be sheep like they usually are and follow the Globes.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Monty
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    Jan 21st, 2015
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    #1203798681

    Watch Anthony and Chadwick tie at Critics Choice.

    It is embarrassing that they tie Gaga and Close but they don’t even award the eventual winner.

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    RealLyre852
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    #1203798750

    unpopular opinion but for this year I think Colman has a better shot at beating Close than Hopkins does at beating Boseman.

     

    I think Colman is the best chance the father has of winning any Oscars this year.

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