December 3, 2020 at 12:48 am #1203891111
I agree. Not to mention Amazon will campaign hard for him. I think if Kaluuya moves Holland is one of the biggest threats to snatch the 5th spot, alongside Stanford and Ahmed.
Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)December 3, 2020 at 12:48 am #1203891113
This might be crazy but I have a really strong feeling that Holland is more of a threat than people are giving him credit for. Not for a win, that feels like Boseman v Hopkins and maybe Kaluuya, but for a nomination. It’s hard without a trailer but the role sounds like it could be quite baity and he’d be a pretty popular pick amongst voters who’d be excited by an academy newcomer. His abilities as a dramatic actor were validated by The Devil All The Time (the movie itself was just alright) and he’s with directors who he’s worked with 3 times already (I know, on marvel stuff)… I think if he has the performance then he’d make for an exciting nominee and frankly it feels like there’s at least 2 good slots still open.
Also worth baring in mind that he does also have The Impossible under his belt which whilst it was a gazillion years ago I remember many felt he was snubbed in supporting for that film. This could be the Academy’s first chance at recognising him.
With regards to the Actor race whilst I’m still being open minded and considering Hopkins, Kaluuya and even Ahmed I am increasingly feeling like Boseman wins this. Maybe not BAFTA but what’s worth baring in mind about the Globes is they love sentimental narratives (obviously Boseman has the performance as well). They want to award the underdog who they feel won’t have another chance (see Close, Phoenix, Huppert etc).
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"December 3, 2020 at 5:55 am #1203891424
So I had a look at the IMDB votes for Actor contending films that have had releases so far this year and I just thought I’d post the votes they have on here for fun. Not like they matter but why not?
These are taken from films whose actors are listed in the predictions centre and have had releases. I’m not including films that only have had festival runs and I’m not necessarily considering everything listed as having a chance:
1) Tenet – 161,692 votes
2) Borat 2 – 91,215 votes
3) The Devil All the Time – 77,906 votes
4) Greyhound – 60,228 votes
5) Palm Springs – 58,581 votes
6) I’m Thinking of Ending Things – 50,596 votes
7) Da 5 Bloods – 34,031 votes
8) The King of Staten Island – 28,905 votes
9) The Way Back – 28,058 votes
10) The Personal History of David Copperfield – 11,009
11) Hillbilly Elegy – 9,670 votes
12) The Boys in the Band – 9,450 votes
13) The Nest – 2,701 votes
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"December 3, 2020 at 6:12 am #1203891474
Chadwick/Anthony duel..December 3, 2020 at 5:05 pm #1203893161
I’m personally rooting for Mulligan to win in actress, but I have enough common sense to not predict her for the win
How do you know it’s not common sense to predict her for the win? Have you seen the film?
Maybe it’s not so wise to claim someone whose actually seen Promising Young Woman doesn’t have common sense in their prediction…
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"December 3, 2020 at 5:21 pm #1203893179
I think that last spot is open for grabs. I’m getting serious De Niro in The Irishman vibes from Gary Oldman in Mank and I just think Lindo in Da 5 Bloods will likely be forgotten by April. I also think Kaluuya will probably go supporting and contend for the win there.
My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/IcecreambDecember 3, 2020 at 5:38 pm #1203893201
Ahmed and Yeun both making it is gonna be such a dream.
I get that vibe from Oldman too but maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my end.
I just love movies. And awards.December 3, 2020 at 6:41 pm #1203893261
<p style=”text-align: left;”>Speaking about Tom Holland, judging from the premise his role is a baby from Tobey Maguire in Brothers and Andrew Garfield in Hackshaw Ridge. The early part of the movie perhaps will be similar to Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge while the later (or most) part of the movie will be similar to Maguire in Brothers.</p>
Maguire was snubbed in 2010 and Garfield was nominated in 2017. Funny enough because all of them have played Spiderman lol.
Watch out for Tom Holland. He could be a shock for nomsDecember 3, 2020 at 7:10 pm #1203893290
He literally has no chance this year but ok.December 3, 2020 at 7:35 pm #1203893316
I think De Niro was hurt by having so much success before and appearing in a bunch of shitty movies recently, so there was no real pull for him to be recognized. This stuff doesn’t apply to Oldman who hasn’t been over rewarded and has been consistently been giving high praised performances this past decade.December 3, 2020 at 7:56 pm #1203893331
I think De Niro was hurt by having so much success before and appearing in a bunch of shitty movies recently, so there was no real pull for him to be recognized. This stuff doesn’t apply to Oldman who hasn’t been over rewarded and has been consistently been giving high praised performances this past decade.
I think it’s more that Oldman looks to be doing “more of the same” and will likely get overshadowed by his supporting actors. If he makes it, he’ll take the last spot.
My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/IcecreambDecember 3, 2020 at 8:54 pm #1203893382
and will likely get overshadowed by his supporting actors
Seyfried is the only performance in Mank getting better reviews than Oldman. No one else besides those two has any Oscar buzz at the moment.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyDecember 4, 2020 at 12:08 am #1203893514
I don’t think Oldman’s case in any way similar to De Niro’s, who was a passive presence through two thirds of The Irishman, and although he was spectacular in the last third, especially the phone call scene and generally all the stuff he did when his character became old, voters clearly thought he didn’t do enough and that most praise went to his co-stars. Oldman plays a mostly drank character in Mank, and he’s all but a passive presence, and he has some of the best reviews of his career for this performance. Also this year is way less competitive than 2019 in this category, last year’s lineup was beyond impressive. I think he’s safe as of now, he’s at least 4th and I’d say he’s 3rd.December 4, 2020 at 3:21 am #1203893644
The Anti Oldman takes here are hilarious. He’s brilliant in the film, he doesnt get overshadowed by anyone unlike De Niro, Mank is an Oscar frontrunner, unlike Yeun and Ahmed’s films who are lucky to even be nominated and if Oldman didnt win for Darkest Hour he’d sweep everything. I doubt Boseman and Hopkins are this good, I guess i’ll find out soon.
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