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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 3)

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    Stank83
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    #1203901593

    I’m sure this has been brought up elsewhere but De Niro in The Irishman is completely different; his role wasn’t very showy, it was superficially similar to some of his other roles, and there was the de-aging controversy that many thought hindered his performance (Pacino’s and Pesci’s transformations were somewhat more convincing). Oldman, however, has a lengthy drunken monologue that ideally rounds off the performance (from a typical awards voter’s perspective). If there’s any equivalent to Oldman from last year it would probably be DiCaprio, who like Oldman was also coming off a recent win; there was some chatter on these forums about how he could miss out, but it never came to anything, he was solidly positioned for a nom all along but with no chance of winning. Oldman is in a similar position this year I think.

    Edit: Also what wins for cinematography or production design if not Mank? I could conceive of Nomadland for the former, but draw a complete blank in the latter.

    Unlike Pacino, DeNiro’s face aged terribly, and it didn’t help being convincing.
    I agree with the rest, Oldman is the DiCaprio of this year, which means he’s in third position with best career notices and raves, but at the same time coming from a recent win, so no way he’ll win. Boseman and Hopkins are the Phoenix and Driver of this year.

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    Chitanda170
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    #1203901723

    Unlike Pacino, DeNiro’s face aged terribly, and it didn’t help being convincing. I agree with the rest, Oldman is the DiCaprio of this year, which means he’s in third position with best career notices and raves, but at the same time coming from a recent win, so no way he’ll win. Boseman and Hopkins are the Phoenix and Driver of this year.

    If that it’s true it means only one is going to sweep, I wonder who will be, my money is on Boseman right now.

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    Fletcher
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    #1203901898

    Boseman , Hopkins, Ahmed, Lindo and Oldman

    Holland, Yeun and Ben Adir are not happening.

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    maxinho
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    #1203901986

    I think David Fincher has a good track getting his lead actors nominated.

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    Victor
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    #1203902084

    I’m rewatching Sound of Metal and God, if they snub fucking Riz Ahmed…

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    #1203902204
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    wolfali
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    #1203902279

    Boseman, Hopkins and Oldman are safe. The last two slots are between Lindo, Ahmed and Stanfield imo. Not buying Yeun because he has nowhere the acclaim Youn has and also he’s not a big name (or at least has previous high profile nominations/wins in television or festival buzz like Kirby or is in a film with Tom Hanks like Zengel).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Mickmack
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    #1203902364

    Oldman reminds me more of De Niro. I don’t think his film will be loved by voters and I think he’ll be in 5th place or he might miss.

    More like DiCaprio last year.

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    Matheus Vaz
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    #1203902460

    Finally watched Sound of Metal, Riz Ahmed better happen! In fact, in an ideal world, Olivia Cooke should too.

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    nevkm
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    #1203902478

    Riz Ahmed delivered such a soulful and layered performance in this inspiring story about a major change in life and how you adapt to it. The ending left me speechless…best thing I’ve seen in a very long time. Ruben finally finding calm amidst the chaos was a thing of extraordinary beauty. I doubt other performances will move me as much but I’m willing to give Hopkins and Boseman a chance.

     

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    Matheus Vaz
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    #1203902501

    Riz Ahmed delivered such a soulful and layered performance in this inspiring story about a major change in life and how you adapt to it. The ending left me speechless…best thing I’ve seen in a very long time. Ruben finally finding calm amidst the chaos was a thing of extraordinary beauty. I doubt other performances will move me as much but I’m willing to give Hopkins and Boseman a chance.

    I feel the same, Riz Ahmed remind me of how I felt watching Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory last year, which was by far my favorite male performance.

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    Brae
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    #1203902540

    Yes to all this Ahmed love!

    About Lindo, Da 5 Bloods is not going to be on anyone’s minds when nomination day rolls around… I can’t see him being the sole nomination for a movie that just won’t have the passion behind it. Minari looks to be an across the board play, as does One Night In Miami… and I still think that Holland has the potential to rise dramatically and get himself in with the right performance (coincidentally, I hope we get that trailer soon so that I can have something other than feeling to back that up)

    I was initially thinking about Stanfield but I’m wondering if all this WB backlash is something to take seriously when predicting or not. I have a feeling it might be, which is a shame because up until this news I’ve had Judas and the Black Messiah picked for a best picture dark horse. Curious about anyone’s thoughts.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    Dan Jo
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    #1203902553

    He’ll be the second nominee? Geez, the odds are still against him, though. I hope he overcomes them.

    The 4th. Based on wiki, Yul Brynner (the first), then Topol, then Kingsley.

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    wolfali
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    #1203902605

    I was initially thinking about Stanfield but I’m wondering if all this WB backlash is something to take seriously when predicting or not. I have a feeling it might be, which is a shame because up until this news I’ve had Judas and the Black Messiah picked for a best picture dark horse. Curious about anyone’s thoughts.

    I was called delusional when I said this a few days on the Best Picture thread but I think it kills any chance of Judas winning Best Picture on the ranked ballot. There often is the argument made that Netflix won’t win Best Picture because they’re a streamer but unlike Warner Bros. they are not a massive studio who provides a lifeline to cinemas. WB is. In fact I’d say some voters may be more inclined to vote for Netflix this year because unlike WB they are sending their films in before they drop it on their services (there’s one cinema here whose films are basically just Netflix films at this point lol).

    I don’t think this kills Kaluuya (it may hurt him but I doubt it does to the point that he loses) but in Picture (for the win) and even Director (for the nomination) this may sting. Had they just said they were giving Judas and the Black Messiah the Wonder Woman treatment and not all their other films we wouldn’t be in this situation. After all only a few weeks ago their Wonder Woman decision was almost universally praised.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1203902616
    1. Boseman
    2. Hopkins
    3. Oldman
    4. Ahmed
    5. Hanks

    I think I’ve finally lost the confidence in Lindo as a sort of ‘locked fourth’ because like some above I just can’t see people remembering Da 5 Bloods come voting, unless Netflix decides to prioritise it over its legion of other movies. Ahmed is getting the buzz needed to get a nom for me, although it does have the ring of an indie/ critics darling pick that gains no mainstream traction like Hawke, Sandler and Nyong’o.

    I can’t decide if Oldman is more like De Niro or DiCaprio from last year. I’m leaning towards the latter right now and am reasonably confident he’s a safe bet. For now I think 5th comes down to Hanks, Ben Adir and Yeun. I’m opting for the former for now because I think NOTW will be a pretty big player, Ben Adir might get lost in a larger cast as a more unknown name and I’m not sure how big Minari will be. Not much to separate the three though. Of course Lindo still has a chance too.

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