March 2, 2021 at 2:40 pm #1204077600
Is it possible that people do not vote for Boseman because they think that others will do the job ? Then they can vote for performances they actually liked instead of giving a pity vote ?March 2, 2021 at 5:20 pm #1204077967
Is it possible that people do not vote for Boseman because they think that others will do the job ?
That doesn’t happen. I think most people are smart enough to realise that if everyone did that then the ‘favourite’ wouldn’t win. I don’t even think that was the reason Glenn Close lost two years ago despite people constantly raising that argument. The only way I would vote like this would be if there were two people I deemed equally worthy, so I might choose the one less likely to win (or more likely if the race came down to one of my faves and another less deserving candidate).March 2, 2021 at 5:59 pm #1204078096
Is it possible that people do not vote for Boseman because they think that others will do the job ? Then they can vote for performances they actually liked instead of giving a pity vote ?
Nah. He is the lockiest lock of any category at the oscars. That sounds like something that would happen to Hopkins. Instead of putting him #2, they may put another performance they like better.March 2, 2021 at 6:49 pm #1204078193
People are still floating around Lindo as an option and I love that (he delivered one of the performances of the year) but what evidence is there that he still has a chance at a nomination? IMO not only are the top 5 in the predictions centre and Rahim are ahead of him but so is Stanfield. Ben-Adir might even be too.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")March 2, 2021 at 8:44 pm #1204078541
Tahar Rahim gives a brilliant performance in The Mauritanian. Both he and Jodie Foster deserve noms.
Lead Actor is super competitive, but if I were a voter I’d have a hard time not voting for Tahar (especially with his movie coming out immediately before the ballots arrive).
My ballot would look like:
Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Steven Yeun – Minari
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
* I still haven’t seen The Father.
At this point I would be upset to see Gary Oldman score a nom for Mank over any of these performances.March 2, 2021 at 9:47 pm #1204078736
Just finished watching Judas and the Black Messiah. I’ll give my full review tomorrow but Stanfield absolutely deserves to be here. I thought he did an even better job than Kaluuya and Kaluuya was also incredibly good. Hopefully the Oscars do the right thing and give him the recognition he deserves.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
Best Actress: Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
Best Screenplay: Soul
John's Best of 2021
Best Picture: Nomadland
Best Direction: Nomadland
Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black MessiahMarch 3, 2021 at 1:39 am #1204079061
If Rahim gets in at BAFTA and Yeun doesn’t get in that sixth slot (could be Mikkelsen, could be Ben-Adir, could be Lindo, you just never know) then I’ll predict Rahim to get that fifth spot. Helps that he adds another bit of diversity.
If Yeun and Rahim both get into BAFTA (also possible), I’ll do the unthinkable and predict them both in over Oldman. I still think Oldman is a safe bet. But I also think an argument could be made for The Mauritanian and Minari’s hype being stronger than ever. I know Boseman/Hopkins/Ahmed/Rahim/Yeun would just be such a wild lineup…yet I could still see it happen.
Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)March 3, 2021 at 3:51 am #1204079217
Lindo truly is the biggest snub of the year and I’m so disappointed that SAG failed to nominate him. I usually expect them to fix HFPA’s mess (nominating Nyong’o, Coel, pushing Parasite etc) and I just don’t understand why his performance didn’t resonate with them
I’m happy to see Chadwick clearing the competition but Lindo deserved to be considered too
Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
Best Picture - Nomadland
Best Director - Chloé Zhao
SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Cinematography - NomadlandMarch 3, 2021 at 4:50 am #1204079321
Y’all keep underestimating Minari and Yeun at your own perils.March 3, 2021 at 7:25 am #1204079589
Yeun has the advantage of being in a film that will have a ton of passion votes. Along with Ahmed, he’s also been campaigning like hell. I think his spot is secure. It helps that SAG nominated his performance too.
👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)March 3, 2021 at 7:35 am #1204079625
I know this question has been asked so frequently, but I wonder who’s the one getting snubbed if both Rahim and Yeun get in.March 3, 2021 at 7:45 am #1204079687
I know this question has been asked so frequently, but I wonder who’s the one getting snubbed if both Rahim and Yeun get in.
Rahim getting in imo would be the equivalent of Ruth Negga building momentum for a critically acclaimed performance in a so so film at the televised awards and overtaking Adams (who started off in 4th) even though she was in a BP nominee and one of the most nominated films of the year.
I think to me what makes me particularly worried about Oldman’s chances is that Mank doesn’t seem to be very strong with actors. Amanda Seyfried got snubbed at SAG and the film missed ensemble. Whilst <i>The Mauritanian </i>(which obviously is a non factor outside of acting) seems to have disproportionately strong support with actors (especially the British bloc ones). I feel like that’s evidenced by Benedict Cumberbatch’s long-list at BAFTA for a largely thankless role. You could say Cumberbatch got in there because he’s Cumberbatch and he’s British but if that’s then why did British veteran Charles Dance miss? Or British TV actor Tom Burke?
Mank has support and will get into Best Picture and Director and a bunch of technicals but its support amongst actors seem precarious enough for Oldman to miss imo. Especially considering how Amanda Seyfried feels like she’s barely in Supporting Actress herself.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
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