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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 10)

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    Brae
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    #1203887962

    With months until we even see nominations I don’t know why people are getting mad at certain discussions, like surely a McDormand snub debate is more interesting than debating whether or not Kirby is a lock for the 9th time or if Andra Day can act. I’m welcoming of new ideas, we have a long season ahead.

    A McDormand snub doesn’t seem impossible to me. She does appear to be a lock but just based on the people I follow it appears that she might be in 3rd place which isn’t quite where you want to be when there’s unknown factors like Zendaya and Streep. Nomadland doesn’t need acting nominations to win Picture, especially because it’s also the current front runner for Director with not a lot of possible surprises left. With two unknowns that might be able to knock you down to 5th place, you start to become vulnerable. This is running on a lot of assumptions of course, but that’s all any of us are going to have until we can actually start seeing these films for ourselves.

    For the record I do have McDormand predicted in 3rd and I personally don’t see that changing, but shooting down an attempt at a fresh discussion seems counter intuitive to me.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    Bassett
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    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1203887978

    Nomadland doesn’t need acting nominations to win Picture, especially because it’s also the current front runner for Director with not a lot of possible surprises left.

    I think it does. Lord Of The Rings, Parasite and Slumdog Millionaire were the only movies that won BP without an acting nom this century and even then, all of these were massive ensemble efforts that won the corresponding SAG award

    I haven’t seen the movie but it looks like Frances will almost carry it by herself. I don’t see how it could win the top prize if the acting, her acting doesn’t get any strong notice

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    wolfali
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    #1203888012

    A McDormand snub doesn’t seem impossible to me. She does appear to be a lock but just based on the people I follow it appears that she might be in 3rd place which isn’t quite where you want to be when there’s unknown factors like Zendaya and Streep. Nomadland doesn’t need acting nominations to win Picture, especially because it’s also the current front runner for Director with not a lot of possible surprises left. With two unknowns that might be able to knock you down to 5th place, you start to become vulnerable. This is running on a lot of assumptions of course, but that’s all any of us are going to have until we can actually start seeing these films for ourselves. For the record I do have McDormand predicted in 3rd and I personally don’t see that changing,

    Also worth pointing out that this year seems to be filled with passion picks. Just like in 2017 (when Adams was snubbed).

    When it comes to the win McDormand seems less likely to win than Davis and Kirby (although I wouldn’t totally rule out McDormand winning because Jodie Foster did win again in the same category within a similar amount of time but her film won the big 5 Oscars). That already puts her at a disadvantage. We’ve been talking about how she is a lock for a nomination and comparisons have been made to Blanchett but what Blanchett had in her favour was not only a less competitive field but also the cinematic feel of Carol. Anyone who watched that film could easily tell that they watching actors “act”. Now I’m sure McDormand is excellent (she’s never been bad in anything I’ve seen her in) but from what I’ve heard about Nomadland it feels a bit like a docu-drama (or at least that’s what some of the less positive reactions to the film have suggested).

    With McDormand being declared as “locked” so early on I can see voters ranking picks inspiring more passion (almost voting tactically) like Mulligan, Day, Zendaya, Loren, even Pfeiffer because they expect her to get in and she doesn’t need their support (even though she does because her winning chances seem like they’re slim). In a way that is similar to what happened with Adams. Going into the 2017 Oscars it seemed like we’d have an uncertain race with Stone vs Portman vs Adams vs Huppert which is a bit similar to what we have this year. Adams lost the Globe to Huppert and had her win chances automatically die there and that made her vulnerable because Ruth Negga (who just for those who like to talk about name recognition at the Oscars the most high profile role she had was a recurring one on Agents of Shield) was gathering support as a passion pick. Of course Portman also lost the Globe to Huppert but she was playing the titular role in a Jackie Kennedy biopic so she was safe.

    I can see a similar situation happen again. McDormand seems likely to lose the Globe (at this point) to one of Davis or Kirby and unlike Davis and Kirby she doesn’t have some novelty factor to keep her afloat in the event of a loss. Then you have the fact that Mulligan might have relevance and buzz with a likely Comedy Globe win and BAFTA/SAG nomination (two nominations McDormand isn’t safe for because of the former’s jury system and the fact her film won’t be a big crowdpleaser to satisfy populist SAG). That knocks her down to fourth. Then you have Streep (who – if that indie wire review of the film is accurate – may be undeniable for the nomination) and people like Zendaya and Day whose films will increase in visibility during this extended voting period. That’s enough to knock her out.

    I’ve seen some people say Adams got snubbed because of genre bias but I think she actually got snubbed because voters both thought she was a guarantee for the nomination but also they weren’t blown away by her performance. She was a veteran doing what was expected of her. We’ve seen this type of misfortune befall on veteran performers recently unless they deliver a “shocking or transformative” performance like Zellweger or their name is Meryl Streep. It’s happened at both the Emmys and Oscars. Look at Zendaya winning the Emmy over Laura Linney this year. Look at Colman winning over Close. I think this same misfortune can result in a snub for Frances (depending on how the field plays out).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203888056

    The veteran Oscar winner starring in the Best Picture frontrunner is not a lock, but a young and not so famous actress starring in a movie with luckwarm reception is. Sure jan.

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    wolfali
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    #1203888117

    The veteran Oscar winner starring in the Best Picture frontrunner is not a lock, but a young and not so famous actress starring in a movie with luckwarm reception is. Sure jan.

    Do you have to be so rude when you’re responding to me? I mean Jeez it’s getting tiring.

    I didn’t say Kirby was a lock in my post or that McDormand was missing so I don’t understand what your problem is.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203888149

    Do you have to be so rude when you’re responding to me? I mean Jeez it’s getting tiring.

    I didn’t say Kirby was a lock in my post or that McDormand was missing so I don’t understand what your problem is.

    You keep saying that Kirby is a lock and McDormand could be snubbed. Am I lying?

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    wolfali
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    #1203888165

    You keep saying that Kirby is a lock and McDormand could be snubbed. Am I lying?

    I don’t “keep” saying it. I have only talked about McDormand being snubbed over the past two days. To say that I “keep” saying it is an over exaggeration.

    However you have been repetitively rude for no reason to (not only myself) but people making a prediction. No one starts yelling at you about your predictions so we’d appreciate it if you did the same to others making predictions. After all this is a predictions site. No one cares if you think you’re the God of the Oscars.

    Anyway I’ll leave this conversation there. If you want to continue your accusations and disagreements with me please choose to compose a direct message and not post about it on here to cause the misfortune of others.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203888282

    I don’t “keep” saying it. I have only talked about McDormand being snubbed over the past two days. To say that I “keep” saying it is an over exaggeration.

    However you have been repetitively rude for no reason to (not only myself) but people making a prediction. No one starts yelling at you about your predictions so we’d appreciate it if you did the same to others making predictions. After all this is a predictions site. No one cares if you think you’re the God of the Oscars.

    Anyway I’ll leave this conversation there. If you want to continue your accusations and disagreements with me please choose to compose a direct message and not post about it on here to cause the misfortune of others.

    I was never rude, but sorry you got offended…

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    CateNicole
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    #1203888316

    I don’t think McDormand would be screwed over by ranked choice because of her hubby and all, as someone pointed out a few days ago.

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    Dorsey
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    #1203888396

    Carey Mulligan takes the first (admittedly small) win of the season @ Sunset Film Circle. She’ll be snatching a lot of these critics awards

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    OccultCherry
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    Sep 13th, 2020
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    #1203888421

    For the last fucking time, McDormand is not getting snubbed. Her performance carries the whole film.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    Fletcher
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    #1203888425

    For the last fucking time, McDormand is not getting snubbed. Her performance carries the whole film.

    The same for Amy, or do you think the movie would be the same without her?

     

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203888491

    The same for Amy, or do you think the movie would be the same without her?

    Again, Nomadland is currently test to be a far more serious contender and McDormand is much more popular in the Academy.

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    Dorsey
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    #1203888506

    The same for Amy, or do you think the movie would be the same without her?

    ?????? Amy Adams??

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Fletcher
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    #1203888514

    ?????? Amy Adams??

     

    I’m talking about Arrival snub.

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