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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 10)

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    Brae
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    #1203885794

    Unless you’re ready to slot in Ma Rainey for either at least one of directing or editing then it’s going to be one of Davis or Boseman who wins and at the moment I’m thinking Boseman.

    I actually do have Ma Rainey predicted for directing cause I frankly don’t buy Da 5 Bloods getting a single nomination, call me crazy but I think it’s missing every category come nomination day which is part of why I do have Davis and Boseman winning. If it was normal circumstances I /might/ agree that they can’t both win but I do think the fact that he’s posthumous changes the context just a little bit.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    wolfali
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    #1203885796

    And how do you know this?

    Because voters don’t like to give actors Oscars for the same roles consecutively. Look at Christian Bale losing for playing Dick Cheney just after Oldman won. Look at how they went from awarding a performance in a depressing film (Room) to one in a musical (La La Land). Look at how they went form awarding McDormand to Colman.

    That’s not to say Davis won’t or can’t win but she doesn’t have an “easy” path.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203885803

    I actually do have Ma Rainey predicted for directing cause I frankly don’t buy Da 5 Bloods getting a single nomination, call me crazy but I think it’s missing every category come nomination day which is part of why I do have Davis and Boseman winning. If it was normal circumstances I /might/ agree that they can’t both win but I do think the fact that he’s posthumous changes the context just a little bit.

    Yeah I have Ma Rainey in directing too for this exact reason.

    I’m not saying it can’t win two acting awards but I’ve seen many people on here say it will win two acting awards regardless (i.e. they’re both locks for the win) which I think is a bit self fulfilling considering the trend and history. Can they break the trend? Yes. Will they? I don’t know.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Hoster1
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    #1203885815

    Because voters don’t like to give actors Oscars for the same roles consecutively. Look at Christian Bale losing for playing Dick Cheney just after Oldman won. Look at how they went from awarding a performance in a depressing film (Room) to one in a musical (La La Land). Look at how they went form awarding McDormand to Colman.

    That’s not to say Davis won’t or can’t win but she doesn’t have an “easy” path.

    That in no way does prove that Egerton was snubbed, because they awarded Malek lmao.

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    wolfali
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    #1203885823

    God that was one of the WORST Oscar snubs in recent memory. In my heart he got nominated for and won that Oscar. 😭

    The win really should have been between him and Roman Griffin Davis. Both gave the best performances in that category last year.

    Whilst I think the “winning for a similar performance” thing largely hurt him I wonder how much of it was to do with him being known as “the Kingsman guy”. Although then again he did receive acclaim for his performance in <i>Eddie the Eagle </i>so he did have an acting record if that makes sense.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Brae
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    #1203885844

    The win really should have been between him and Roman Griffin Davis. Both gave the best performances in that category last year. Whilst I think the “winning for a similar performance” thing largely hurt him I wonder how much of it was to do with him being known as “the Kingsman guy”. Although then again he did receive acclaim for his performance in <i>Eddie the Eagle </i>so he did have an acting record if that makes sense.

    I actually completely agree with that first point. Part of me wonders if some academy voters have something against the globes that reflects in their voting but I don’t wanna start a conspiracy conversation lmao

    I would understand him not winning right after Malek but I was shocked when he not only missed nomination but lost it to passionless DiCaprio. It was clear that Pitt was the shining star of OUATIH. I think it mostly came down to him not being a big enough star yet in a way, which is a shame cause he’s one of my favourite actors. I do think if he can bring another knockout performance he’ll earn himself a nomination. Maybe that Tetris movie he’s doing? Time will tell.

    Edit: For the record I think Rocketman should have been a best picture contender and a few other above the line categories too. Oh well, at least I’ll always have the movie.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    wolfali
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    #1203885852

    That in no way does prove that Egerton was snubbed, because they awarded Malek lmao.

    Look at the types of films and performances the winners in the Actress category have won for.

    Actress

    2010 – Psychological horror
    2011 – Mixed reviewed biopic (transformation into real person)
    2012 – RomCom
    2013 – Dramedy
    2014 – Acclaimed performance from an overdue actor
    2015 – Depressing indie film
    2016 – Musical
    2017 – Depressing drama
    2018 – Critics darling in a dark comedy
    2019 – Transformative performance into an icon in a film based on a play

    Davis transforms into a famous musician in a film based on a play and Day transforms into a famous musician in a film that from what we’ve seen of it so far (its promo shots) seems very stage based.

    I don’t know why people are so up in arms about me suggesting this when it was the reason this four gave for why Jennifer Hudson could not win for Respect even if she had the acclaim or the film was a commercial hit.

    Anyway I’m not saying neither Davis or Day have a chance at winning (that would be as ridiculous as saying Zendaya and Mulligan have no chance at a nomination or Kirby having no chance at a win at this point) but it’s not as if they have an “easy and locked ride” as its sometimes made out to be.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203885859

    I actually completely agree with that first point. Part of me wonders if some academy voters have something against the globes that reflects in their voting but I don’t wanna start a conspiracy conversation lmao I would understand him not winning right after Malek but I was shocked when he not only missed nomination but lost it to passionless DiCaprio. It was clear that Pitt was the shining star of OUATIH. I think it mostly came down to him not being a big enough star yet in a way, which is a shame cause he’s one of my favourite actors. I do think if he can bring another knockout performance he’ll earn himself a nomination. Maybe that Tetris movie he’s doing? Time will tell. Edit: For the record I think Rocketman should have been a best picture contender and a few other above the line categories too. Oh well, at least I’ll always have the movie.

    I mean they did snub Awkwafina too? But then again that would be an interesting conspiracy lol.

    I agree about Rocketman overall as a film. Some of the films that made it in over it in Picture, Director (and of course Actor) were truly mediocre.

    I can understand why they gave Phoenix the award. He was overdue etc I get it. But really both Griffin Davis and Egerton should have made it in over DiCaprio and Pryce last year (I only say Pryce because even though I am someone who was intrigued by the play The Two Popes I fell asleep during the film).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203885882

    Edgerton overcampaigned, people were tired of him showing how thirsty he was and it backfired.

    In that case I’m guessing I must have to rule Kirby, Davis, Mulligan and Winslet out of my predictions completely because there is no way the Oscars are going to vote for someone who over campaigns for a nomination. Oh and Sacha Baron Cohen too.

    Oh and I must also predict Sarah Snook and Ariana DeBose for the frontrunners because they’re the only ones who aren’t campaigning in their categories.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Hoster1
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    #1203885891

    Look at the types of films and performances the winners in the Actress category have won for.

    That still doesn’t prove that Egerton was snubbed because they awarded Malek. Listen, you’re giving the voters too much credit if you think they care about this at all.

    Bale didn’t lose because Oldman won the year before for playing Winston Chucurchill, he lost because voters liked Bohemian Rhapsody more, the movie was a cultural box office phenomenon etc. They just vote for what they like the most in the given moment.

    Nobody given the choice between let’s say Davis in BP nominee, Day in BP nominee and Kirby not in BP nominee, will decide to not vote for Davis/Day because Zellweger won last year. Kirby may win, but that won’t have any barring whatsoever.

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    estrelas
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    #1203885894

    Edgerton overcampaigned, people were tired of him showing how thirsty he was and it backfired. Besides, he was always missing since the very beginning, Driver and Phoenix were locks, Banderas had passion, DiCaprio was a strong contender for a nom (C Mcdormand this year), then Bale and Pryce were next in line… Taron was always crashing somewhere it was too stacked and predictable.

    Egerton was literally and definitely ahead of Bale for the nomination. He was most definitely the one in 6th.

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    Brae
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    #1203885900

    Edgerton overcampaigned, people were tired of him showing how thirsty he was and it backfired. Besides, he was always missing since the very beginning, Driver and Phoenix were locks, Banderas had passion, DiCaprio was a strong contender for a nom (C Mcdormand this year), then Bale and Pryce were next in line… Taron was always crashing somewhere it was too stacked and predictable.

    This is what I was talking about a few posts ago, I think on this site we overthink how the voters actually cast their votes a lot. I don’t think the thousands of oscar voters entered some secret group chat and were like “getting pretty sick of taron ngl let’s sink him” as much as much as what the most likely answer is… is that I don’t think all that many voters bothered to watch the film. Which coincidentally is also why this year I agree with some points made that some films that would usually have been skipped over are going to get watched because everyone has had the time to do so.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    estrelas
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    #1203885906

    Didn’t Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom get a bit criticized for how it definitely felt like a play adaptation? And how the direction felt too sketchy at times?

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    wolfali
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    #1203885920

    Which coincidentally is also why this year I agree with some points made that some films that would usually have been skipped over are going to get watched because everyone has had the time to do so.

    Exactly this.

    I just want to point out that just at the Emmys this year we were in this same conundrum. Lots of shows that would have gotten ignored in a normal year got seen because of the pandemic (Normal People, Unorthodox) and got in over shows that starred Chris Evans or were directed by Damien Chazelle.

    Sure people say that the Emmys are more “progressive” but they just awarded Zendaya an Emmy for a teen show. They haven’t showered teen shows with acting wins ever (not even when Buffy the Vampire Slayer or My So Called Life when they were the shows of those particular years). They also are increasingly sharing a crossover in members because of film people crossing over onto television.

    In this particular year more films have been seen in the first half than they have now. For example The Assistant and Emma (both of which I would not even talk about in a normal year) have been quite widely watched. More so than The Life Ahead which would have been seen quite widely by the industry in a normal year.

    In a normal year Kirby would have no buzz and Promising Young Woman would have been released in April and been forgotten. Yet Kirby’s film has a trailer with more views in a week on YouTube than Ma RaineyMank and The Prom in almost a month and Promising Young Woman is coming out in January on SVOD.

    The rule book when it comes to the type of films being seen, talked about and voted for have been thrown out of the window. A rule book that was already crumbling considering the successes of Moonlight, Get OutJojo Rabbit and Joker.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Bassett
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    #1203885927

    Didn’t Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom get a bit criticized for how it definitely felt like a play adaptation? And how the direction felt too sketchy at times?

    Yup. That’s why I’m not sure about it getting the Directing nom, despite the acclaim

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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