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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 11)

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    Luca
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    #1203893586

    Well, the Euphoria special was available last night, for which Zendaya has been praised.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    StasBrd
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    #1203893591

    Carey Mulligan is this year’s Lupita Nyong’o and Awkwafina.

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    wolfali
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    #1203893593

    Well, the Euphoria special was available last night, for which Zendaya has been praised.

    Well at least we know if she’s competing in the Limited/Movie categories that she’s at least ahead of Letitia Wright now lol.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Lexa
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    #1203893599

    Not me waking up to another tired comparison between Mulligan and Hawke/ Collette again when her movie and her performance couldn’t be more different and when it’s obvious she’s winning the Globe and hitting all those precursors. And not people discounting how important it is for us women that such a brave and topical movie will be in the Oscar conversation.

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    wolfali
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    #1203893607

    Carey Mulligan is this year’s Lupita Nyong’o and Awkwafina.

    Those are two very different comparisons lmao.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Brae
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    #1203893674

    Not every acting snub is comparable, PYW has proven itself to be a memorable film almost a year later and that’s going to only get boosted by the public release. Nyong’o was an early release that never got a secondary push, and Awkwafina was in a partially foreign language dramedy with a subtle performance. It was my favourite film of the year but in hindsight I can at least understand what happened.

    It’s also important to note that the path to the Oscars is not created equal, and every actress is going to have her own hurdles to jump that are unique to her. Mulligan might miss or she might not, but it’s not going to have a thing to do with a Toni Collette performance in a horror movie.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    wolfali
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    #1203893682

    I really don’t understand people’s Mulligan comparisons with Nyong’o and Collette.

    Mulligan

    • Film being released in December January.
    • Film is the biggest push of Focus Features. A studio who since the beginning of the decade has only been shut once in acting (in 2012 when their biggest pushes were a Wes Anderson movie and a mixed reviewed adaptation of Anna Karenina). They have also won 5 acting Oscars in that period of time.
    • Film is a dark comedy thriller with some dramatic elements.
    • The lead of the film is almost a near lock for the Golden Globe win.
    • The film is a big player for the Comedy Picture Globe.
    • It’s a much weaker Comedy/Musical field.
    • Mulligan is quite likely at BAFTA (and a potential winner esp. with the return to the jury shortlists there which we’ve seen benefit her before).
    • The film could also over-perform at BAFTA. The film is also written and directed by Emerald Fennell who has received attention recently for her work as the showrunner of the second season of Killing Eve (a show received nominations as both a producer and writer for at the Emmys). She also has received attention for her acting work on The Crown (which is the current frontrunner for the Drama Series Emmy). Now she’s obviously a nobody in comparison to Jordan Peele but we’ve seen how the Oscars (despite being absolutely terrible in embracing female directors) have begun to become more welcoming as time has gone by to this type of “white 30 year old female actor turned writer-director”. Look at Sofia Coppola or Greta Gerwig.
    • The film is produced by Margot Robbie.
    • Fennell is a contender for the DGA First Feature award.
    • The film could also over-perform with SAG. It’s both very indie and very mainstream. Mulligan is THE PERFORMANCE from the film and everyone else is kind of either having a cameo in comparison to her (apart from Bo Burnham who is kind of gives the only properly supporting performance in the film). However despite role size every performer in the film has something to do and the ensemble has been campaigning so it wouldn’t surprise me if it slipped into ensemble. The smaller members of the ensemble are also quite well known TV actors or are actors who have had big roles on shows like GLOW and <i>Veep </i>which are both shows SAG members are familiar with (e.g. the ensemble includes Alison Brie, Laverne Cox Connie Britton, Alfred Molina, Molly Shannon etc).
    • The film deals with a very real, serious and explicitly topical subject matter and whilst there is one part of the film that will be divisive it isn’t totally inaccessible in genre. Parts of the film are a tragic-comedy, parts a serious drama, parts a revenge thriller and parts a romantic comedy. For example the parts with Bo Burnham are largely RomCom.
    • It is a player in categories outside Mulligan like Screenplay.
    • It is more accessible than both Us and Hereditary. A lot more I’d say. The only thing that really holds it back (apart from what I mentioned about a certain storytelling choice perhaps being divisive) is that it’s a film that covers a real and dark subject matter. However in this particular year its subject matter seems likely to help it rather than hinder it.
    • It’s a much weaker Oscar field in general and this film despite any problems it would have faced in other years due its dark and real subject matter is once that WILL be watched. Not every non Netflix/Amazon film this year can say that.
    • This is the most mainstream film Mulligan has done in years and is arguably her big Oscar comeback (whether that ends up resulting in a nomination or not who knows although I feel confident it will). We’ve seen the Academy give a big welcome back hug to Actresses they haven’t nominated in years even if they don’t win (whilst of course there were other factors as well with these actresses see them welcoming back Saoirse Ronan after 8 years away, Reneé Zellweger after 15, Charlize Theron after 14, Dench, McCarthy and Close after 7, Witherspoon after 9 etc). If Mulligan (who has constantly remained in the conversation because she’s been delivering acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance) gets the nomination it will be 11 years since she was nominated for An Education.

    <span style=”font-size: 16px;”>Collette</span>

    • Was in a horror film (THE GENRE the Academy has bias against).
    • Film came out in June.
    • Film distributed by A24 who didn’t prioritise it over other films they distributed that year and haven’t landed big Oscar nominations apart from Lady Bird.
    • The film upon release was included in the list of some of the most disturbing films of all time.
    • I could be here all day talking about the content, gore and frightening scenes of the film (which I thought was excellent btw).
    • The film had a small ensemble and the most high profile member of that ensemble was Gabriel Byrne.
    • Collette was competing in an ultra competitive Drama Actress Globe field.
    • Collette was competing in one of the most competitive Best Actress fields in recent history.
    • The film was not a big player in critics awards outside Collette’s performance.
    • Film directed by Ari Aster who was a nobody then who had no buzz for any non Hereditary projects…
    • Film produced by someone whose most high profile producing credits were on The Witch and Beginners

    Nyong’o

    • Whilst her film was more accessible than Collette’s it was still a horror film.
    • Whilst it was an excellent film (and Nyong’o gave one of my personal favourite performances) it is also a film that is considered to be disturbing (despite it being less disturbing than Hereditary). I know people who love horror films and loved Get Out who found it too scary.
    • Nyong’o’s only significant live action role post 12 Years a Slave was in Black Panther.
    • Nyong’o was a black woman competing in a category that historically and unfortunately has been quite unwelcoming to black women (especially those competing for sophomore nominations) due to the systemic racism within the Academy.
    • Us was released in March…
    • Us had the same distributor as 1917
    • Us was considered by many (and I’m not saying everyone) to be less explicit in its message than Get Out and much darker as a film.
    • Us also was always going to face unfair comparisons to Get Out (e.g. whilst I see them as both as good as each other I remember there was a which one is better thing going on film twitter at the time) because this was Jordan Peele’s follow up to the 4 time Academy Award nominated Get Out. We saw how this even indirectly affected Little Women because it was for sure being compared to Lady Bird by people. Ironically I’ve noticed it’s only films by women and/or poc that face this unfair comparison and not those by white people. I wonder why no one is comparing Mank to The Social Network

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203893685

    Not every acting snub is comparable, PYW has proven itself to be a memorable film almost a year later and that’s going to only get boosted by the public release. Nyong’o was an early release that never got a secondary push, and Awkwafina was in a partially foreign language dramedy with a subtle performance. It was my favourite film of the year but in hindsight I can at least understand what happened. It’s also important to note that the path to the Oscars is not created equal, and every actress is going to have her own hurdles to jump that are unique to her. Mulligan might miss or she might not, but it’s not going to have a thing to do with a Toni Collette performance in a horror movie.

    Ironically we posted very similar things at the same time lol!

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203893773

    I feel like Zendaya will be this year’s Margot Robbie (a young 20 something it girl who the Academy is waiting to nominate who is in their first prestige film but they don’t necessarily want to give her the Oscar).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    hopelesstar
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    Mar 10th, 2020
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    #1203893775

    If M&M is anything close to that Euphoria special (which is also a 1 to 1 conversation in the same setting) Zendaya isn’t going anywhere. The absolute BORE

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    Brae
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    #1203893802

    I feel like Zendaya will be this year’s Margot Robbie (a young 20 something it girl who the Academy is waiting to nominate who is in their first prestige film but they don’t necessarily want to give her the Oscar).

    If Zendaya’s performance is good then I think she’s got a very strong chance at a first nomination. The only problem I have is that Streep has two seperate ways to a nomination and Kirby is already there getting her own first nomination. There is of course the scenario where both Streep and Zendaya knock out Mulligan but that line up doesn’t feel quite right, and McDormand feels firm in the lineup for now as well. I suppose in theory there is also Winslet and Day but Winslet does not feel like there’s an urgency to nominate her again yet and Day is a complete unknown that I doubt will be delivering an Oscar worthy performance on her first try. I’ve got Davis / Kirby / Mulligan / McDormand / Streep for now… nothing would make me happier than to be able to take out Streep and put in Zendaya.

    Also the prospects of both Zendaya and Tom Holland being nominated in the same year and how much that would bother certain members on this site is far too delightful for me to handle, so I absolutely need that to happen.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    leslieit
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    Nov 19th, 2020
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    #1203893806

    She got praised for her acting though. I don’t have faith in a movie itself, but acting wise it’s gonna be interesting.

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    Jojo1
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    Nov 27th, 2020
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    #1203893897

    I feel like Zendaya will be this year’s Margot Robbie (a young 20 something it girl who the Academy is waiting to nominate who is in their first prestige film but they don’t necessarily want to give her the Oscar).

    I would say Jlaw or Emma stone.

    A nomination before the win kinda thing

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    wolfali
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    #1203893948

    (which is also a 1 to 1 conversation in the same setting) Zendaya isn’t going anywhere. The absolute BORE

    Fences says hi.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    BetteDavis
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    #1203893959

    lol come on now. Get Out was in the cultural zeitgeist for a year. PYW has disappeared since sundance.

    Has it?  I kind of feel like it’s built a lot of buzz and will likely build even more when it gets a general release.

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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