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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 11)

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    Lil Tony
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    Sep 17th, 2018
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    #1203894060

    I really don’t understand people’s Mulligan comparisons with Nyong’o and Collette. Mulligan

    • Film being released in December January.
    • Film is the biggest push of Focus Features. A studio who since the beginning of the decade has only been shut once in acting (in 2012 when their biggest pushes were a Wes Anderson movie and a mixed reviewed adaptation of Anna Karenina). They have also won 5 acting Oscars in that period of time.
    • Film is a dark comedy thriller with some dramatic elements.
    • The lead of the film is almost a near lock for the Golden Globe win.
    • The film is a big player for the Comedy Picture Globe.
    • It’s a much weaker Comedy/Musical field.
    • Mulligan is quite likely at BAFTA (and a potential winner esp. with the return to the jury shortlists there which we’ve seen benefit her before).
    • The film could also over-perform at BAFTA. The film is also written and directed by Emerald Fennell who has received attention recently for her work as the showrunner of the second season of Killing Eve (a show received nominations as both a producer and writer for at the Emmys). She also has received attention for her acting work on The Crown (which is the current frontrunner for the Drama Series Emmy). Now she’s obviously a nobody in comparison to Jordan Peele but we’ve seen how the Oscars (despite being absolutely terrible in embracing female directors) have begun to become more welcoming as time has gone by to this type of “white 30 year old female actor turned writer-director”. Look at Sofia Coppola or Greta Gerwig.
    • The film is produced by Margot Robbie.
    • Fennell is a contender for the DGA First Feature award.
    • The film could also over-perform with SAG. It’s both very indie and very mainstream. Mulligan is THE PERFORMANCE from the film and everyone else is kind of either having a cameo in comparison to her (apart from Bo Burnham who is kind of gives the only properly supporting performance in the film). However despite role size every performer in the film has something to do and the ensemble has been campaigning so it wouldn’t surprise me if it slipped into ensemble. The smaller members of the ensemble are also quite well known TV actors or are actors who have had big roles on shows like GLOW and <i>Veep </i>which are both shows SAG members are familiar with (e.g. the ensemble includes Alison Brie, Laverne Cox Connie Britton, Alfred Molina, Molly Shannon etc).
    • The film deals with a very real, serious and explicitly topical subject matter and whilst there is one part of the film that will be divisive it isn’t totally inaccessible in genre. Parts of the film are a tragic-comedy, parts a serious drama, parts a revenge thriller and parts a romantic comedy. For example the parts with Bo Burnham are largely RomCom.
    • It is a player in categories outside Mulligan like Screenplay.
    • It is more accessible than both Us and Hereditary. A lot more I’d say. The only thing that really holds it back (apart from what I mentioned about a certain storytelling choice perhaps being divisive) is that it’s a film that covers a real and dark subject matter. However in this particular year its subject matter seems likely to help it rather than hinder it.
    • It’s a much weaker Oscar field in general and this film despite any problems it would have faced in other years due its dark and real subject matter is once that WILL be watched. Not every non Netflix/Amazon film this year can say that.
    • This is the most mainstream film Mulligan has done in years and is arguably her big Oscar comeback (whether that ends up resulting in a nomination or not who knows although I feel confident it will). We’ve seen the Academy give a big welcome back hug to Actresses they haven’t nominated in years even if they don’t win (whilst of course there were other factors as well with these actresses see them welcoming back Saoirse Ronan after 8 years away, Reneé Zellweger after 15, Charlize Theron after 14, Dench, McCarthy and Close after 7, Witherspoon after 9 etc). If Mulligan (who has constantly remained in the conversation because she’s been delivering acclaimed performance after acclaimed performance) gets the nomination it will be 11 years since she was nominated for An Education.

    <span style=”font-size: 16px;”>Collette</span>

    • Was in a horror film (THE GENRE the Academy has bias against).
    • Film came out in June.
    • Film distributed by A24 who didn’t prioritise it over other films they distributed that year and haven’t landed big Oscar nominations apart from Lady Bird.
    • The film upon release was included in the list of some of the most disturbing films of all time.
    • I could be here all day talking about the content, gore and frightening scenes of the film (which I thought was excellent btw).
    • The film had a small ensemble and the most high profile member of that ensemble was Gabriel Byrne.
    • Collette was competing in an ultra competitive Drama Actress Globe field.
    • Collette was competing in one of the most competitive Best Actress fields in recent history.
    • The film was not a big player in critics awards outside Collette’s performance.
    • Film directed by Ari Aster who was a nobody then who had no buzz for any non Hereditary projects…
    • Film produced by someone whose most high profile producing credits were on The Witch and Beginners

    Nyong’o

    • Whilst her film was more accessible than Collette’s it was still a horror film.
    • Whilst it was an excellent film (and Nyong’o gave one of my personal favourite performances) it is also a film that is considered to be disturbing (despite it being less disturbing than Hereditary). I know people who love horror films and loved Get Out who found it too scary.
    • Nyong’o’s only significant live action role post 12 Years a Slave was in Black Panther.
    • Nyong’o was a black woman competing in a category that historically and unfortunately has been quite unwelcoming to black women (especially those competing for sophomore nominations) due to the systemic racism within the Academy.
    • Us was released in March…
    • Us had the same distributor as 1917
    • Us was considered by many (and I’m not saying everyone) to be less explicit in its message than Get Out and much darker as a film.
    • Us also was always going to face unfair comparisons to Get Out (e.g. whilst I see them as both as good as each other I remember there was a which one is better thing going on film twitter at the time) because this was Jordan Peele’s follow up to the 4 time Academy Award nominated Get Out. We saw how this even indirectly affected Little Women because it was for sure being compared to Lady Bird by people. Ironically I’ve noticed it’s only films by women and/or poc that face this unfair comparison and not those by white people. I wonder why no one is comparing Mank to The Social Network

    Did you type these things yourself or you did copy and paste?

    FYC:

    Riz Ahmed- Best Actor for Sound Of Metal
    Daniel Kaluuya - Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah
    Amanda Seyfried - Best Supporting Actress for Mank

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    wolfali
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    #1203894065

    Did you type these things yourself or you did copy and paste?

    Myself.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    brenolimsta
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    Nov 14th, 2020
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    #1203894158

    wolfali is really passionate about Carey Mulligan…

    so I don’t think it was copied hahaha

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    wolfali
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    #1203894189

    Me when people keep comparing Mulligan in a dramedy to Nyong’o and Collette in horror films…

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Lil Tony
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    #1203894297

    Myself.

    wow. You’re really into the Mulligan hype. I can’t imagine myself typing all of that. My fingers would surely hurt

    FYC:

    Riz Ahmed- Best Actor for Sound Of Metal
    Daniel Kaluuya - Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah
    Amanda Seyfried - Best Supporting Actress for Mank

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    Jojo1
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    #1203894317

    I love the way wolfali campaigns for Carey

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    wolfali
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    #1203894323

    wow. You’re really into the Mulligan hype. I can’t imagine myself typing all of that. My fingers would surely hurt

    I mean whilst I said I don’t agree with the Collette and Nyong’o comparisons in any ordinary year I think she’d be snubbed because she would have been forgotten but considering it’s now being released in January and not April I think she’ll be fine.

    I guess at worst Promising Young Woman could end up like Nightcrawler but the only difference is I expect Mulligan to have more of an advantage from her Globe win and a potential Globe win for the film (i.e. I expect the film to be a bigger player in Picture than Nightcrawler).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    JackO
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    #1203894327

    Has it? I kind of feel like it’s built a lot of buzz and will likely build even more when it gets a general release.

    the only buzz is right here in this forum.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1203894338

    the only buzz is right here in this forum.

    My heartfelt condolences go to your non existent twitter account.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1203894352

    Umm Carey?

    I don’t envy you. You have to campaign for not one but two people! I’m glad I only have to do it for one!

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis

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    wolfali
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    #1203894356

    I don’t envy you. You have to campaign for not one but two people! I’m glad I only have to do it for one!

    I lowkey wonder if they will split votes because people won’t know which film they’re voting for (similar titles of films) lol.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203894361

    I still don’t see any scenario where both Streep and Mulligan are nominated: it’s one or the other. Whoever wins the Comedy Glibe will likely take the 5th spot in Actress (which is usually how it goes in previous years) and the other one will be snubbed.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Dorsey
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    Dec 31st, 2017
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    #1203894363

    People have been buzzing about PYW for almost a year, not just on this forum.

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    #1203894383

    I still don’t see any scenario where both Streep and Mulligan are nominated: it’s one or the other. Whoever wins the Comedy Glibe will likely take the 5th spot in Actress (which is usually how it goes in previous years) and the other one will be snubbed.

    I don’t even think Streep will be top 2 at the Globes…

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    nevkm
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2018
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    #1203894385

    the only buzz is right here in this forum.

    Do you live under a rock?

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