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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 11)

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1203897130

    I was truly excited for this film when the first trailer came out but it did not live up for me. My roommate is an American and they are using a VPN to still access their US Amazon account (they still cba to sign up for Amazon UK) so they rented it on there and we watched it on there. I would not recommend you do that! Save your money until it comes out on Sky Cinema or Rakuten (although I imagine it probably would be the same price on there or perhaps even more expensive considering how paying in dollars is cheaper than paying in sterling but whatever).

    OK thanks for the information, I guessed I was missing out somehow. I only have access to Netflix and NowTV currently…might need to invest in Amazon too….

    FYC:

    Andrea Riseborough, Karim Saleh, Possessor/Luxor (Actress, Actor)
    Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage, I Care a Lot (Actress, Supporting Actor)
    Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren, The Duke (Actor, Supporting Actress)
    Sophia Loren, Abril Zamora, The Life Ahead (Actress, Supporting Actress)
    Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (Actress)

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    wolfali
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    #1203897646

    OK thanks for the information, I guessed I was missing out somehow. I only have access to Netflix and NowTV currently…might need to invest in Amazon too….

    Well it was their Amazon US account and they rented the film so make the investment if you want but it would be a very expensive investment and I’m not sure it would be worth it!

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203897666

    I’ve seen people call others on here dumb or delusional for not having Streep and/or Winslet in their predictions because they are big names but I have to ask what evidence is there that awards bodies care so much about big names anymore?

    I say this as a genuine question. It didn’t even seem to be much of a factor in pre-pandemic days. Look at Cynthia Erivo getting in for playing Harriet Tubman in a critically panned film over Academy Award winner Lupita Nyong’o last year. Look at Ruth Negga (whose biggest role was as a recurring character on the Marvel show Agents of Shield) getting in over Amy f***ing Adams. If name recognition was the outranking factor as it’s been touted to be by some on here then why do you think Vanessa Kirby (who whilst she is a far bigger name than Negga and some other previous ingenues is still a nobody in comparison to Michelle Pfeiffer for example) or Andra Day are in the conversation? Why is it that Nicole Kidman has a gazillion Golden Globe nominations and wins but only 4 Oscar nominations and win.

    I am starting to feel that in this particular year we’re really over-estimating name recognition. I’ve seen people use it to argue why Winslet/Streep will get a nomination over Mulligan/Day (although to be fair Streep should never be counted out because she is Streep but I can’t understand the logic when it comes to Winslet) even if for example Mulligan wins the Golden Globe. Or that Helena Zengel is dead if Tom Hanks is dead when it comes to a potential awards nomination but that Glenn Close is not dead when it comes to a nomination even though Amy Adams is?

    I know it was the Emmys but just this year we saw how Academy Award winners Nicole Kidman and Viola Davis were snubbed whilst Jodie Comer and Zendaya got nominated. We saw how the latter WON over people like Jennifer Aniston, Olivia Colman, Laura Linney and Sandra Oh. We saw how Shira Haas (a young unknown Israeli actress) got nominated over multiple Emmy winner Merritt Wever in her career best performance and Academy Award, Emmy winner and Hollywood’s best friend Reese Witherspoon. We saw how Paul Mescal (an Irish actor in a show with no big names) got nominated over Russell Crowe, Chris Evans and an actor from a show directed by Damien Chazelle.

    I think in this particular year what feels like the factor that outranks them all is what will voters watch and what will be things they are told to watch the most. We saw how at the Emmys despite SAG shutting out shows like Succession and Watchmen that voters WATCHED them because they were told to. Even though one of them was a superhero show. I feel like we are seeing a similar thing here in the Oscars race too. Sophia Loren and Kate Winslet are two of the biggest names in cinema history yet their films and performances are so buzzless. I only knew Winslet went on Stephen Colbert and that her film was out this week because people on here said so. From people I know and/or follow in the industry here in the UK I’ve seen them talk more about their excitement for Saint Maud than Ammonite (and we all know Saint Maud has no chance here). We know films like On the Rocks, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mank and Happiest Season have already been watched or have excitement around them because they either have trended on Twitter, are being made sure are watched or are too big to ignore/have been talked about by industry people and critics on Twitter.

    So I think (and feel free to peacefully disagree with me on this one) that name recognition is being overestimated on here. What will matter more is what films are watched and what films are screened in front of voters, when and how much more impact they have with voters and audiences. For example I don’t think genre bias is going to matter so much this year unless it’s for horror films (sorry Elisabeth Moss).

    I have seen more buzz for not only Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman or Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman but also Elisabeth Moss in Shirley, Julia Garner in The Assistant, Aubrey Plaza in Black Bear, Sidney Flanigan in Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Rashida Jones in On the Rocks and Anya Taylor-Joy in Emma. in the past few weeks than I have for Winslet or even Loren in months. And I am finding it unlikely (not impossible but quite unlikely) that Moss, Garner, Plaza, Flanigan, Jones or Taylor-Joy get in at the Oscars (although predicting Moss, Garner, Jones and Taylor-Joy as possibilities at a few precursors along with Winslet and Loren is what I am doing).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1203897676

    I have seen more buzz for not only Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman or Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman but also Elisabeth Moss in Shirley, Julia Garner in The Assistant, Aubrey Plaza in Black Bear, Sidney Flanigan in Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Rashida Jones in On the Rocks and Anya Taylor-Joy in Emma. in the past few weeks than I have for Winslet or even Loren in months. And I am finding it unlikely (not impossible but quite unlikely) that Moss, Garner, Plaza, Flanigan, Jones or Taylor-Joy get in at the Oscars (although predicting Moss, Garner, Jones and Taylor-Joy as possibilities at a few precursors along with Winslet and Loren is what I am doing).

    There’s one thing I am quite confident about: Winslet and Loren are easily ahead of almost everyone you just named (sans Kirby and maybe Mulligan). The academy recognizes indies here and there, but when that’s case, it’s because an indie just has that much buzz and is unequivocally undeniable (see: Moonlight). None of those movies you mentioned above even have that much buzz at this moment (again, sans PYM and POAW).

    And I know you recognized it, but the Emmys and Oscars could not be more different, and I don’t understand why people are still referring to them so much. They can definitely put wind in someone’s sails, but they aren’t, IMO, an indication of how well or poorly you’ll do at the Oscars. I’ll say it again: For instance, Zendaya made a lot of sense for that Emmy win — I wrote two articles about it! — but there is a lot — and I mean A LOT — that needs to happen for her to even have a chance at the Oscars. Different voting groups and different voting systems!

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203897682

    And I know you recognized it, but the Emmys and Oscars could not be more different, and I don’t understand why people are still referring to them so much. They can definitely put wind in someone’s sails, but they aren’t, IMO, an indication of how well or poorly you’ll do at the Oscars. I’ll say it again: For instance, Zendaya made a lot of sense for that Emmy win — I wrote two articles about it! — but there is a lot — and I mean A LOT — that needs to happen for her to even have a chance at the Oscars. Different voting groups and different voting systems!

    What is worth baring in mind is that whilst they are two different voting groups they do have a crossover in voters. One crossover that is becoming even larger with the lines being blurred between members of the TV and Film industries.

    See in any other year I wouldn’t use the Emmys as an indication for what will happen at the Oscars (I mean this time last year I was writing on here about how they couldn’t be more different because the Emmys love female fronted comedies whilst the Oscars don’t) but in this particular year I think what has happened at the Emmys (and the Grammys who are more conservative when it comes to their voting and have almost no crossover with either the Emmys or Oscars) can give us insight into how unpredictable this year’s season will be.

    My point bringing those other films into the conversation is that even though I don’t see any of those performances happening (and I’ve mentioned that with my post of the performances that will sadly be snubbed a few pages back) at least we know they’ve been watched and certain members of the Academy have taken a shining to it. It feels like no one in the industry gives a damn about either Ammonite or The Life Ahead or either ladies’ performances.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Brae
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    Aug 3rd, 2017
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    #1203897711

    So I think (and feel free to peacefully disagree with me on this one) that name recognition is being overestimated on here. What will matter more is what films are watched and what films are screened in front of voters, when and how much more impact they have with voters and audiences.

    I agree to a certain extent. I don’t think name recognition exactly locks you in as much as it just gives you a friendly boost. I mean if Saoirse Ronan turned in an undeniable performance that was equally as good as an undeniable performance from let’s say Kristen Bell (just stay with me here lol) then even if Bells movie was seen more it would be more likely for Ronan to get the nomination, in my opinion. It’s not that it’s impossible to cinch the nomination over a bigger name, it’s just that you have a couple more hurdles to cross if you’re going to. You named really good examples, and it’s true that legends like Kidman can and do miss frequently (she really should have more but that’s a discussion for another place) but at the same time there’s nominations like Denzel Washington (you know which nomination) or Kathy Bates that seemingly come from nowhere that a lesser name mightn’t have been able to pull off.

    I do agree that overall viewership plays a massive part though and that unless your name is Meryl Streep your name can almost never save you if nobody watches. As a side note, it’s incredibly frustrating that academy voters aren’t watching  everything with even minor buzz. I recall reading that there was a certain amount or percentage of films you’re supposed to have watched but I don’t remember if that was category specific or what that was.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    MikeScott85
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    Dec 6th, 2020
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    #1203897720

    I am not as confident as others in Mulligan. Every year there is an acclaimed lead performance from a fringe contender that can’t make it in. Toni Collette, Ethan Hawke, etc. To me, she seems like this years’ example.

    One major difference is that A24 didn’t do any campaigning for Hawke or Collette. I remember when Hereditary came out in the summer they said they planned to launch an Oscar campaign for her and they did nothing. Despite being a difficult genre to be nominated for I actually think she could have just made it if they’d bothered to give her a needed push. The same goes for Hawke. They were not going to get in with A24 doing nothing. I feel both were so darn close to making it if the studio would have actually gotten behind them. I was most disappointed about Collette not getting in. Such a powerhouse performance. I thought it was easily the best female performance of the year.

    Anyway Focus Features fully intends to get behind Mulligan. I do think it’s one of the most buzzed about performances in the category this year. I’m still not 100% that she’ll get in. Might be a little too edgy for Academy members. But I’m definitely hoping. It’s the film and performance I’m rooting for most this year. Carey has been underrated for far too long (that honestly sounds weird since she’s been nominated but after that nomination she’s been incredibly overlooked). I’ve been a fan since An Education. She’s given great performances since that should have been nominated (Never Let Me Go, Shame, Wildlife). Promising Young Woman will hopefully be her ticket back to the Oscars. At the moment it’s pretty much the only contender that really excites me this awards season. I know there have been weak years but I’m not sure if I can think of one I’ve personally found weaker. Maybe that can change as the season progresses. Some contenders could come along and surprise me. That does happen. But as of now I’m not that excited about the potential crop. I’m needing Mulligan to happen so I have something I can really get behind.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203897940

    I think before this decade is up if she does more serious movies Millie Bobby Brown will be a Oscar winner Probably Leading actress she’s a really good actress for her age is really popular and already has stats other girls in Hollywood in there late 20s dont got my prediction

    I agree. She has sweep potential. However, she sounds to be more interested in doing blockbusters than awards baits at the moment.

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    brenolimsta
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    Nov 14th, 2020
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    #1203897948

    One major difference is that A24 didn’t do any campaigning for Hawke or Collette. I remember when Hereditary came out in the summer they said they planned to launch an Oscar campaign for her and they did nothing. Despite being a difficult genre to be nominated for I actually think she could have just made it if they’d bothered to give her a needed push. The same goes for Hawke. They were not going to get in with A24 doing nothing. I feel both were so darn close to making it if the studio would have actually gotten behind them. I was most disappointed about Collette not getting in. Such a powerhouse performance. I thought it was easily the best female performance of the year. Anyway Focus Features fully intends to get behind Mulligan. I do think it’s one of the most buzzed about performances in the category this year. I’m still not 100% that she’ll get in. Might be a little too edgy for Academy members. But I’m definitely hoping. It’s the film and performance I’m rooting for most this year. Carey has been underrated for far too long (that honestly sounds weird since she’s been nominated but after that nomination she’s been incredibly overlooked). I’ve been a fan since An Education. She’s given great performances since that should have been nominated (Never Let Me Go, Shame, Wildlife). Promising Young Woman will hopefully be her ticket back to the Oscars. At the moment it’s pretty much the only contender that really excites me this awards season. I know there have been weak years but I’m not sure if I can think of one I’ve personally found weaker. Maybe that can change as the season progresses. Some contenders could come along and surprise me. That does happen. But as of now I’m not that excited about the potential crop. I’m needing Mulligan to happen so I have something I can really get behind.

     

    Isabelle Huppert got in for a french film that was “too edgy”…

    I don’t think she is in danger…not for a nomination. I can’t see her winning tho…

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    lukee3
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    #1203898026

    That’s untrue. Every year multiple films that come right before the deadline are nominated for Oscars. That’s pretty common and you don’t necessarily need to release a film to build up momentum, you can build it before.

    Its actually quite true. Do your research.

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    marty
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    Aug 18th, 2020
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    #1203898066

    I don’t think Winslet is strong enough to overcome the lukewarm reception that Ammonite has

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    GD
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    #1203898145

    I don’t think Winslet is strong enough to overcome the lukewarm reception that Ammonite has

    I don’t think it’s that lukewarm. 73 on metacritic and a lot of celebrities are talking about it. The last one being Xavier Dolan who literally made an instagram post about it. We’ll see I guess 🤷🏽‍♂️

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    wattsgold
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    #1203898149

    Kirby, David and Streep (LTAT) could be considered locked. Mulligan is in with the Globe in her hands. 5th spot is the mystery. I’m kinda sad about Loren.

    I haven’t kept track. Is Andra’s film going to be released this award season?

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    marty
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    #1203898181

    Kirby, David and Streep (LTAT) could be considered locked. Mulligan is in with the Globe in her hands. 5th spot is the mystery. I’m kinda sad about Loren. I haven’t kept track. Is Andra’s film going to be released this award season?

    You forgetting that McDormand exists or what?

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Jojo1
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    Nov 27th, 2020
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    #1203898185

    Is Andra’s film going to be released this award season?

    apparently yes but there’s no trailer yet

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