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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 17)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1203947534

    Part 17 is now open.

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    wolfali
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    #1203947536

    AACTA: Carey Mulligan (Spoiler: Vanessa Kirby)
    BAFTA: Carey Mulligan (Spoiler: Vanessa Kirby)
    Critics Choice: Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis (TIE)
    Globe (Drama): Carey Mulligan (Spoilers: Viola Davis, Vanessa Kirby)
    Globe (Comedy/Musical): Meryl Streep (Spoiler: Maria Bakalova)
    Oscar: Carey Mulligan
    SAG: Viola Davis (Spoiler: Carey Mulligan)
    Spirit: Carey Mulligan (Spoiler: Sidney Flanigan, Julia Garner, Vanessa Kirby)

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1203947541

    I will repost my comment here:

    Just two things:

    1) You liking or disliking a performance doesn’t make the performer a front-runner or a non-factor. Viola’s turn might not be liked in these forums, but she is getting raves outside of it.

    2) Oscar win = | = merit. Sometimes the internet fave aligns with the industry fave, but that isn’t always the case.

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    Matthew anzalone
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    #1203947555

    Right now, I think streep is winning the comedy globe. Out of the potential nominees, shes probaly the most likly to be nominated for lead actress at the oscars. In the comedy categories, thats how they do it (they pick the one most likely to be oscar nominated)

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    estrelas
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    #1203947559

    I will repost my comment here: Just two things: 1) You liking or disliking a performance doesn’t make the performer a front-runner or a non-factor. Viola’s turn might not be liked in these forums, but she is getting raves outside of it. 

    I hope people start to face this reality. I did not like Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom that much and I didn’t find neither Viola nor Chadwick win worthy but that’s not why I’ll stop predicting them for the win. In fact, I’m still predicting both and I feel confident that Chadwick is definitely winning this.

    *Our opinions don’t matter for the Oscars people.*

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    wolfali
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    #1203947566

    Have to agree with Estrelas. I preferred Anthony Hopkins and Delroy Lindo to Chadwick Boseman but just because Chadwick didn’t give my favourite performance of the year I won’t deny the reality that his powerful performance will be winning. Same with Davis. She’s not even in my personal awards lineup but she’s at worst third in the Actress race.

    I feel like these forums can sometimes be the textbook definition of hyperbolic echo chambers.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1203947568

    It’s just predicting awards, so I don’t want it to sound more serious than it is, but yeah. We see time and again how internet faves rarely align with industry faves. Last year, I wanted nothing more than for Lupita to win, but I didn’t even predict her for the nom because I knew that all the internet hype and critics love would not translate to Oscar love. Then there’s Rami Malek, who people were doubting all the way until the end, even after he’d practically swept, based on their personal/the internet’s dislike of his performance. Again, it’s just predicting, so it doesn’t really matter, but I thought I’d point it out.

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    wolfali
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    #1203947576

    I know people here don’t like to hear it but I really think we could be underestimating Julia Garner popping up somewhere for The Assistant. Of course there haven’t been many films released in 2020 but out of those that have hers is one of the buzziest, most acclaimed, timely and is a film we actually know Academy members have actually seen. She hasn’t been forgotten on critics lists despite the fact her film was screened in front of them before the pandemic during an actual in person screening so it is quite possible some voting bodies don’t forget her either.

    Just to clarify I don’t see her happening at the Oscars or anywhere apart from maybe the Globes and Spirits but I’m certain she’s in the top 10 and is ahead of many people who are ahead of her in the predictions centre. It is worth baring in mind that just yesterday BFI Player (which is a streaming service used almost solely by critics and members of the British film industry in the UK) published the list of the most rented films on there this year and this was one of them (even though there have been some Oscar blockbuster titles on there recently and some popular British films that could have stopped it from being one of the most rented films on there this year).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    JackO
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    #1203947590

    I will repost my comment here:

    Just two things:

    1) You liking or disliking a performance doesn’t make the performer a front-runner or a non-factor. Viola’s turn might not be liked in these forums, but she is getting raves outside of it.

    2) Oscar win = | = merit. Sometimes the internet fave aligns with the industry fave, but that isn’t always the case.

    these forums are the worst at predictions. make sure to check who is talking before following them off a cliff.

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    SN
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    I have Davis in 1st place for now, but I think this category won’t have a frontrunner until the Globes. I have McDormand in 2nd, Mulligan in 3rd and Day in 4th, but I think Day could surprise if her performance is really raved.

    I have Kirby in 5th, but I just don’t feel she’s happening. It’s the same feeling I had when I predicted Gyllenhaal and Aniston to be snubbed six years ago. No matter how good her performance seems to be (merit is not everything), there’s no narrative for her. The fact she’s disappointing with critics awards, where she should be doing well, doesn’t help either.

    If Land is good, I’ll predict Wright for the 5th place. She’s so overdue for a nomination. I also wouldn’t surprised if Winslet rises up again. She’s a legend and she was nominated before for mediocre films.

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    Rachel615
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    I also wouldn’t surprised if Winslet rises up again.

    I agree, and think that she or Loren or Adams all have a better chance of nabbing an Oscar nomination– as opposed to a Globe nomination– than Streep, but I don’t expect any of these four to be nominated for an Oscar this year.

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    Lil Tony
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    I can’t wait to see the trailer for The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Anticipate "Hold My hand".

    Lady Gaga is a genius

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    estrelas
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    I also wouldn’t surprised if Winslet rises up again. She’s a legend and she was nominated before for mediocre films.

    Those mediocre movies had buzz though. Ammonite is literally dead in terms of buzz and no one is talking about her anymore.

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    wolfali
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    I also wouldn’t surprised if Winslet rises up again.

    Eh I don’t know. Hardly anyone seems to have watched Ammonite and it doesn’t have any holiday buzz (which films like it need to be considered more).

    She’s a legend and she was nominated before for mediocre films.

    I’ve said this before but unless you’re Meryl Streep name recognition means nothing this year. We’ve just seen how Julia Garner and Sidney Flanigan have dominated some critics awards when Kate Winslet, Sophia Loren, Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan and Frances McDormand were all eligible. Winslet may have gotten by with her name during normal times but just because she’s Winslet it doesn’t mean she’s guaranteed a nomination when her film was basically DOA.

    I do agree with you about Wright though. This is a passion project of hers and I think one often underestimates the impact peak TV has been having recently on the film awards. After Big Little Lies we’ve seen how Nicole Kidman has constantly been bubbling in the top 10 of categories for the Oscars as evidenced by her yearly Globe and SAG noms. We’ve seen how Alison Janney, Regina King, Laura Dern and Viola Davis have won Oscars over more acclaimed and larger performances in supporting after they were showered with Emmys for iconic and memorable pieces of work on television. Wright is just coming off off leading a popular Netflix show for which she got nominated by SAG and the Emmys for its controversial final season and as you said she is an overdue veteran. If she gets buzz at Sundance and her performance and film are acclaimed she can be a sleeper here. The only thing holding me back from predicting her further than the Globes is that Focus seem to be campaigning the hell out of Mulligan and PYW which doesn’t help her.

    I have Kirby in 5th, but I just don’t feel she’s happening. It’s the same feeling I had when I predicted Gyllenhaal and Aniston to be snubbed six years ago. No matter how good her performance seems to be (merit is not everything), there’s no narrative for her.

    I do think Kirby has the young rising ingenue in an acclaimed serious prestige performance thing going for her but I don’t think she’s safe until we see what happens at the Globes. I do feel like she could either go all the way and win or end up like Michael Fassbender for Shame and just get in at the Globes and BAFTA and miss the Oscar nom.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Jazzy
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    I really like this comment from the previous thread:

    We are declaring actresses are done? 5 months ahead of the Oscars? With no major precursors? Brave.

    I don’t think anybody can be counted out at this point, as it’s too early. Which brings me to the fact that the Oscars really dropped the ball by choosing to hold the ceremony at the end of April. That’s still quite a long way away. I don’t know that I would have much interest in watching the ceremony considering that we still have to wait all these months. All this perceived buzz surrounding some of the nominees is likely gonna fade by then. The Academy should’ve just held the ceremony in February and done it virtually like the Emmys. The ratings for the last Oscars were extremely low, so this one is bound to be even lower (the lowest ever). Anyway, I’m off to watch PYW.

    FYC: Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

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