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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 26)

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    Heptapod
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    Feb 2nd, 2019
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    #1204000066

    I expect the critical reception for M&M to go up once all critics are able to see it. Based on what I’ve heard about the film, not surprised some of the ones from the big publications weren’t insane about it.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204000112

    Give me a break—I am working with the information that I have (and expect to have). First, it was the pedigree of the people attached and the premise of the project. Then, we had reactions to the trailer and murmurings from people who had seen the movie. Next, we got actual reviews. Now, we have some footage. Finally, we will have the film itself and reactions from general audiences. (Well, we will get the major precursors after that actually.)

    We are all just trying to figure out where we are going to end up with our prediction. If you want to change your prediction because you feel that you miscalculated, power to you. If you had the foresight not to miscalculate in the first place, good for you. The only bad thing is to be stubborn.

    For me, I was not sold by the pedigree/premise. But the buzz from the trailer and screenings had me changing course, since it was stronger than I had anticipated. The reviews were obviously concerning to all of us, which put my new prediction of her on probation. We seem to be veering further off course with the arrival of this clip to the point that I no longer expect our important next phase to be a positive one either. That will be three strikes in a row, so I am pulling the plug now.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204000118

    Well. that’s at least a fully fleshed-out explanation at least.

    What annoys me is when people overvalue brief clips from a movie. Watch the entire movie before judging a performance!!

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis

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    Gwen
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    May 15th, 2019
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    #1204000132

    The fact with the Carey/Viola comparison of some pages ago is that whereas I easily see Davis win in Lead for a big(ger) very soon and I don’t feel that she just *need* to make history this very year with this particular character, Mulligan is at the top of her game in PYW, she has a character so unforgettable and important for the moment we are living and a performance that struck me as her best. I think she could very well win in the future, yes (though maybe not in Lead), but I think with this movie the win would be incredibly satisfying and significant for many reasons.

    2021 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Actress: CAREY MULLIGAN for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
    Best Actor: DELROY LINDO for DA 5 BLOODS
    Best Supporting Actress: GLENN CLOSE for HILLBILLY ELEGY

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204000147

    The “this is his/her moment” argument does not always hold that much weight. Not exactly the same, but you could say that Frances McDormand did not need to win her second Oscar in 2018, when at least three of her competitors — all Oscar-less — were arguably turning in some of their career-defining, if not career-best, work. You could also use a different example in Olivia Colman, who has a longer career ahead of her yet triumphed over seven-time nominee Glenn Close.

    Saying Davis doesn’t need to make history for this role is an entirely subjective statement and hardly something that can be used for a good argument IMO. We could have said the same about so many past winners. Carey Mulligan is still very, very young, and she’ll have ample opportunities down the road. On the other hand, given the track record, it’s not common for a Black actress to be in such a good position to win lead. Davis’ win would be just as significant as Mulligan’s — if not more, actually (though again, this is subjective).

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis

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    prevnext
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    #1204000158

    Whew, the way JDW overshadows her, that ain’t a good look. Also, what’s up with this stagey look for this type of films, Ma’Rainey Black Bottom first now this? Keep the stage acting gimmicks on the theatre, don’t bring it to film!

    Can you keep you awful opinions in your head. Without these “stage acting gimmicks” you would not have film acting etc

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    Butz
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    Oct 15th, 2020
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    #1204000162

    Can you keep you awful opinions in your head. Without these “stage acting gimmicks” you would not have film acting etc

    Being called out because you want a movie to look cinematic and not like a stage play someone has pointed a camera at? Now I really have seen everything.

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    -----------------------------

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    supermalt
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    Sep 30th, 2019
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    #1204000164

    Lol what was the issue with that clip, you guys remind of locals crying about the  viral argument with Johansson and Driver because “their parents do the same irl” so it isn’t special. I liked jdw here, still think he was overpraised for tenet tho

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    Gwen
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    #1204000173

    The “this is his/her moment” argument does not always hold that much weight. Not exactly the same, but you could say that Frances McDormand did not need to win her second Oscar in 2018, when at least three of her competitors — all Oscar-less — were arguably turning in some of their career-defining, if not career-best, work. You could also use a different example in Olivia Colman, who has a longer career ahead of her yet triumphed over seven-time nominee Glenn Close. Saying Davis doesn’t need to make history for this role is an entirely subjective statement and hardly something that can be used for a good argument IMO. We could have said the same about so many past winners. Carey Mulligan is still very, very young, and she’ll have ample opportunities down the road. On the other hand, given the track record, it’s not common for a Black actress to be in such a good position to win lead. Davis’ win would be just as significant as Mulligan’s — if not more, actually (though again, this is subjective).

    Of course it’s subjective, it’s my personal opinion on this specific comparison: but I find the 2018 race in BA to be very different, ’cause we had two actresses (Margot and Saoirse) younger than Mulligan and, speaking of Robbie, at her first important and big performance (Harley Quinn doesn’t count, imho, as she would never be nominated for that role). Unlike Saoirse, imho at this stage Mulligan has already gave so many amazing performances in the last ten years that were worthy of a nomination and a win but were snubbed (say: Drive, Shame, Never Let Me Go, Suffragette and, damn, Wildlife).
    Now, she engages in a role that’s so different from all of the previous ones mentioned, a role that hits the Zeitgeist, that’s groundbreaking for the female revenge movie genre, and also groundbreaking for her career – meaning, for the kind of characters we were used to see her play. And it’s a career-best, indeed.
    That, for me, would be enough (and more) to guarantee her a proper and satisfying win. This doesn’t mean it’s impossible she could win in the future, yes. But it means that PYW, specifically, would make a wholesome win for Mulligan, at this point. Not to mention the visibility that a win like this would give a movie so culturally and socially relevant, compelling, and significant.

    As for Davis, it’s true that for black actresses it’s really hard to achieve a win in BA (shameful that only one holds this achievement). But Viola is, I think, the most acclaimed and loved among them, has got serious projects ahead that I’m sure will bring her close to the statue in the near future, and possibly for a movie where she’s the indisputable lead, too. I, for me, would give her a second and also third Oscar, because I think she’s one of the best actors working today. It’s just that, in this particular year, I feel that the award would fit better with Mulligan.

     

    2021 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Actress: CAREY MULLIGAN for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
    Best Actor: DELROY LINDO for DA 5 BLOODS
    Best Supporting Actress: GLENN CLOSE for HILLBILLY ELEGY

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204000202

    As for the view that this is Mulligan’s moment, I thought this January 16th tweet by David Poland was interesting. He’s a writer/blogger (see https://moviecitynews.com), producer and interviewer of the DP/30: The Oral History Of Hollywood interviews, and general pundit about the film and entertainment industry:

    “Carey Mulligan should be a lock (with Andra Day as the holdout potential surprise) to win Best Actress. She’s not. McDormand is a fave of mine, but she wears Nomadland like a glove. Mulligan is giving us her La Vie en Rose.”

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    joesilver
    Joined:
    Oct 1st, 2011
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    #1204000213

    How is Viola still #1 on Goldderby predictions lmao. She has so many fans here

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    Gwen
    Joined:
    May 15th, 2019
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    #1204000236

    Of course it’s subjective, it’s my personal opinion on this specific comparison: but I find the 2018 race in BA to be very different, ’cause we had two actresses (Margot and Saoirse) younger than Mulligan and, speaking of Robbie, at her first important and big performance (Harley Quinn doesn’t count, imho, as she would never be nominated for that role). Unlike Saoirse, imho at this stage Mulligan has already gave so many amazing performances in the last ten years that were worthy of a nomination and a win but were snubbed (say: Drive, Shame, Never Let Me Go, Suffragette and, damn, Wildlife). Now, she engages in a role that’s so different from all of the previous ones mentioned, a role that hits the Zeitgeist, that’s groundbreaking for the female revenge movie genre, and also groundbreaking for her career – meaning, for the kind of characters we were used to see her play. And it’s a career-best, indeed. That, for me, would be enough (and more) to guarantee her a proper and satisfying win. This doesn’t mean it’s impossible she could win in the future, yes. But it means that PYW, specifically, would make a wholesome win for Mulligan, at this point. Not to mention the visibility that a win like this would give a movie so culturally and socially relevant, compelling, and significant. As for Davis, it’s true that for black actresses it’s really hard to achieve a win in BA (shameful that only one holds this achievement). But Viola is, I think, the most acclaimed and loved among them, has got serious projects ahead that I’m sure will bring her close to the statue in the near future, and possibly for a movie where she’s the indisputable lead, too. I, for me, would give her a second and also third Oscar, because I think she’s one of the best actors working today. It’s just that, in this particular year, I feel that the award would fit better with Mulligan.

    (P.S. Whilst in 2018 McDormand won her second Oscar twenty years after her first (not four years, like would happen with Viola), but she also had a character that was the heart of her movie and captured the esprit du temps, the Zeitgeist mentioned above.)

     

    2021 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Actress: CAREY MULLIGAN for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
    Best Actor: DELROY LINDO for DA 5 BLOODS
    Best Supporting Actress: GLENN CLOSE for HILLBILLY ELEGY

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    Eddy Q
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    Oct 13th, 2012
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    #1204000283

    How is Viola still #1 on Goldderby predictions lmao. She has so many fans here

    Because people think she will win? This isn’t rocket science honey.

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    Eddy Q
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    Oct 13th, 2012
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    #1204000299

    Viola is NOT winning if Chadwick wins. Ma Rainey’s isn’t Silence of the Lambs and neither performance by Davis and Chadwick is remotely undeniable so that they both need to win.

    It doesn’t have to be Silence of the Lambs. It can be As Good as It Gets–and frankly, neither winning performance in that film was undeniable either, although I suppose that’s subjective.

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    SN
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    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204000305

    Viola is NOT winning if Chadwick wins. Ma Rainey’s isn’t Silence of the Lambs and neither performance by Davis and Chadwick is remotely undeniable so that they both need to win.

    A film doesn’t have to be on Silence of the Lambs level to win both leading categories.

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