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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 3)

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    wolfali
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    #1203795962

    Meryl Streep is being underestimated. She is very much in play to win the comedy globe (HFPA is likely going to love The Prom no matter what critics say, and it might not even be panned despite what the Murphy haters hope), her movie could be well received at SAG aswell… an Oscar nom is not far stretched at all.

    I think she’s locked if she wins the Comedy Globe  which is possible but I’m predicting Mulligan to win because I’m expecting her performance and Promising Young Woman to hit big with the HFPA and last year with BLL we were shown that Meryl doesn’t get checked off that easily at the Globes anymore.

    I do agree The Prom is being underestimated in here. I think there will be an indie tilt again this year but if The Prom is a crowdpleaser and audience hit and America re-elects its orangutan then I can see it benefiting. I actually think a lot of contenders and films can benefit a lot if that happens without necessarily winning Picture for example or anything big (crowdpleasers like The Prom and Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, topical films such as Promising Young Woman and Judas and the Black Messiah).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Diogo Duarte
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    #1203795982

    1. Viola Davis

    2. Andra Day

    3. Amy Adams

    4. McDormand (ok, she is the easy nomination, but I don’t believe in a narrative for win)

    5. Jennifer Hudson

    6. Vanessa Kirby

    7. Kate Winslet

    8. Sophia Loren

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    wattsgold
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    #1203796009

    God forbid another ridiculous Streep nomination.

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    Butz
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    #1203796029

    God forbid another ridiculous Streep nomination.

    Has she ever gone three years without being nominated?

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    wolfali
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    #1203796051

    Has she ever gone three years without being nominated?

    Yes actually.

    She received no Oscar nominations during the 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996 Oscars and no nominations at the 2005, 2006 and 2007 Oscars.

    If we were to talk about “snubs” though she was only really snubbed for The Manchurian Candidate in at the 2005 Oscars (she received a Globe and BAFTA nom for it).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203796069

    Now that Boseman’s in lead there’s pretty much no obstacles preventing Viola to win. She’s a safe, easy prediction now.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    Butz
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    #1203796075

    Yes actually.

    She received no Oscar nominations during the 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996 Oscars and no nominations at the 2005, 2006 and 2007 Oscars.

    If we were to talk about “snubs” though she was only really snubbed for The Manchurian Candidate in at the 2005 Oscars (she received a Globe and BAFTA nom for it).

    Wow, didn’t know that, thank you! Still a pretty impressive streak though

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203796078

    Now that Boseman’s in lead there’s pretty much no obstacles preventing Viola to win. She’s a safe, easy prediction now.

    Boseman buzz and potential win is actually hurting Viola…The Ma Rainey’s conversation will be all about him.

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    DCurrie
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    #1203796082

    Yes actually.

    She received no Oscar nominations during the 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996 Oscars and no nominations at the 2005, 2006 and 2007 Oscars.

    If we were to talk about “snubs” though she was only really snubbed for The Manchurian Candidate in at the 2005 Oscars (she received a Globe and BAFTA nom for it).

    WOW! Unbelievably impressive!

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    wolfali
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    #1203796117

    Boseman buzz and potential win is actually hurting Viola…The Ma Rainey’s conversation will be all about him.

    I mean like I said before the articles for the film are literally talking about how “it’s Chadwick Boseman’s final film” that happens to co-star Viola Davis. She could win but the idea often touted around here that she’s gotten more buzz because of it sadly being Boseman’s final film is untrue.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wattsgold
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    #1203796177

    Yes actually. She received no Oscar nominations during the 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996 Oscars and no nominations at the 2005, 2006 and 2007 Oscars. If we were to talk about “snubs” though she was only really snubbed for The Manchurian Candidate in at the 2005 Oscars (she received a Globe and BAFTA nom for it).

    But she got the noms in 96 for Bridges and 2007 for Prada. The latter would have been a joyful triumph in Supporting.

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    Luca
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    #1203796218

    She could win but the idea often touted around here that she’s gotten more buzz because of it sadly being Boseman’s final film is untrue.

    I do genuinely believe that the movie is going to get more eyeballs because of Chadwick’s passing, which alone should theoretically bolster Viola’s chances — if she’s amazing and has enough material to chew on. IMO, it depends all on how much she’s given to do. If it’s truly the Chadwick show and her role is rather supporting, while, for instance, Amy Adams receives raves, then she’s def. in trouble.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203796402

    But she got the noms in 96 for Bridges and 2007 for Prada. The latter would have been a joyful triumph in Supporting.

    My bad.

    Although it’s kind of funny how her and Judi Dench delivered two of the best performances that year but frauded themselves in Lead and got obliterated by Mirren. They would have been much better winners than J-Hud was.

    In fact Meryl in supporting for Prada would have been one of the best wins ever. Probably one of her career best performances.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203796431

    If it’s truly the Chadwick show and her role is rather supporting, while, for instance, Amy Adams receives raves, then she’s def. in trouble.

    I actually think both Amy and Viola are in trouble. When you look at the winners of Actress since Stone won they have all been arguably the MVP of their movies. Frances was arguably the MVP, many saw Colman as the MVP (awaits backlash from the Colman haters on here) of The Favourite whilst Renee Zellweger was literally her movie.

    If Amy ends up being the MVP that doesn’t hurt Glenn but it does if it’s the other way round. If Chadwick is the MVP then Viola is in trouble. In the scenario where Chadwick is the MVP of Ma Rainey and Glenn of Hillbilly I can see it benefiting Frances or Vanessa because their films seem to be built around their performance and their characters. Of course this could help other people as well like Mulligan (who is the MVP of her film by far) and Day (if she ends up being the MVP of her film) but it’s also partly why I’m not so confident about Loren because her film seems to be a two hander.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203796537

    I actually think both Amy and Viola are in trouble. When you look at the winners of Actress since Stone won they have all been arguably the MVP of their movies. Frances was arguably the MVP, many saw Colman as the MVP (awaits backlash from the Colman haters on here) of The Favourite whilst Renee Zellweger was literally her movie. If Amy ends up being the MVP that doesn’t hurt Glenn but it does if it’s the other way round. If Chadwick is the MVP then Viola is in trouble. In the scenario where Chadwick is the MVP of Ma Rainey and Glenn of Hillbilly I can see it benefiting Frances or Vanessa because their films seem to be built around their performance and their characters. Of course this could help other people as well like Mulligan (who is the MVP of her film by far) and Day (if she ends up being the MVP of her film) but it’s also partly why I’m not so confident about Loren because her film seems to be a two hander.

    This is literally what I said at the start of the season as an argument for Frances and I was clowned for it. I am considering moving Frances to no. 1, she has the performance and the movie, and Nomadland’s inevitable domination in the precursors is going to be nothing but a benefit.

    The fact that Chadwick is so prominent is going to hurt Viola. I am strongly considering moving her down the ladder. There is also the fact that Hudson & Day are doing “similar” roles, and are 2 other black actresses in the field. That will play against her too.

    Amy I simply do not see winning for this role at all. The melodramatic “look at how seriously flawed she is!” character has always been claimed to be ripe Oscar bait, but I personally cannot see any Best Actress winner in recent memory fitting into this mould. It does not help that Hillbilly Elegy looks like it’s going to do badly with critics (I see no Green Book comparison). And Glenn is right there with a superior narrative.

    Can someone remind me of the last time a movie won both Lead and Supporting Actress?

    rubbish

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