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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 3)

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    Someonelikeme
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    #1203790731

    “Ma Rainey’s” trailer has only gotten me more excited about the movie. Viola and achadwick really looked great! It only makes me more excited, based off some of the scenes that has been described that were nowhere to be found in the trailer!

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203790843

    This could be the chink in Queen Viola’s armor. Oscar has not been kind to actresses whose singing performance was dubbed, like Audrey Hepburn in My Fair Lady (singing dubbed by Marni Nixon) or Jennifer Lopez in Selena (who lipsynced Selena Quintanilla’s own recordings). That could especially be a problem if voters end up comparing Viola to Jennifer Hudson or Andra Day. Not to mention a JHud win would be almost as historic as a Viola win without the short timing issue (14 years since Dreamgirls vs. four years since Fences).

    They did just give the Oscar to Rami Malek for a fully lil-synched performance though. I know that’s Actor and not Actress, but it still indicates to me that they don’t care as much about lip-syncing anymore.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    wolfali
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    #1203790852

    Why are people writing off Amy because of what her movie is? This same academy gave acting wins to The Danish Girl, Green Book, Joker, Bohemian Rhapsody and so on — aka, extremely problematic movies. Hillbilly is probably right up their alley.

    This applies to every contender.

    People are writing off Kirby, Kaluuya, Mulligan etc because their films might not be big Best Picture contenders but you don’t need to be in a big Best Picture contender or in a BP nominee to get nominated for or win an acting award.

    I mean ask Ruth Negga. She got nominated for an indie film not many people watched over one of the most acclaimed performances in one of the most acclaimed crowd pleasing box office hits that year.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Luca
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    #1203790883

    This applies to every contender. People are writing off Kirby, Kaluuya, Mulligan etc because their films might not be big Best Picture contenders but you don’t need to be in a big Best Picture contender or in a BP nominee to get nominated for or win an acting award. I mean ask Ruth Negga. She got nominated for an indie film not many people watched over one of the most acclaimed performances in one of the most acclaimed crowd pleasing box office hits that year.

    I’m more so talking about the win, however. For instance, I do believe Mulligan could get nominated (though I have taken her out now), but I def. don’t think she could win based on what I’ve heard about the movie — I don’t know if the academy would touch in when it comes to wins. I would even apply this same thought to Frances, who is most definitely a lock to be nominated, but they rarely go for subtle/quiet performances. Both Viola and Amy are going to give giant performances in movies that Netflix is heavily promoting — they are in this. I can’t speak to Vanessa’s chances since we haven’t even seen a trailer yet.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203790928

    For instance, I do believe Mulligan could get nominated (though I have taken her out now), but I def. don’t think she could win based on what I’ve heard about the movie — I don’t know if the academy would touch in when it comes to wins.

    With regards to Mulligan (as someone who has seen the film) and her film I think it really depends on the film’s performance at precursors and how many people watch it. At the moment I am thinking she will end up like Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl but I do see a situation where she wins or where at worst she ends up like Lupita next year (except she gets in at all the precursors) and misses. There are aspects of the film that are incredibly accessible for voters and there are aspects of the film that are not and are quite triggering. It’s almost as if Promising Young Woman is two films (like Parasite) and Mulligan gives two different performances. A majority of it is incredibly accessible (it is after all a dark comedy) but there is one particular part of the film which is triggering and may put voters off completely because of the dark subject matter (I’m trying not to spoil the film but I’m sure you can guess where I am going here).

    Whether Mulligan gets nominated or wins depends on how voters react to the film which will practically be impossible to tell this year when voters are probably going to watch it at home. However I do think she’s a threat for the nominations/wins at the Globes, CC and BAFTA based on performance alone because I genuinely think this film is going to be her big awards comeback (whether she wins or not or gets Oscar nominated or not). A friend I went the screening with didn’t like the film because of how dark that bit I’ve mentioned above was but agreed with me that Mulligan was phenomenal and gave an awards worthy performance.

    Of course accessibility matters when it comes to your nomination /winning chances but let’s not forget that when The Favourite premiered at Venice one of the reasons we wrote Colman off was because the film was inaccessible. It was also one of the reasons we wrote off Parasite after it won the Palme D’Or.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Monty
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    #1203791322

    I really don’t see Viola Davis winning this one. It is just not a role that people would root for. People would vote for her because she is Viola Davis but not about this role. But this is not enough to carry her to a triumph. Malek wins over Bale because Freddie Mercury is much easier to root for than Dick Cheney.
    Unless Davis really knocks it out of the park, a more sensible guess would be Amy Adams or Vanessa Kirby for the academy who voted for Emma Stone, and Holly Hunter to win.

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    Luca
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    #1203791342

    And how would you know that? Ma Rainey is an iconic American figure — why would that be a turnoff? That’s such an odd statement to make. And it’s a transformative turn, which they love.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    Bassett
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    #1203791348

    I really don’t see Viola Davis winning this one. It is just not a role that people would root for. People would vote for her because she is Viola Davis but not about this role. But this is not enough to carry her to a triumph. Malek wins over Bale because Freddie Mercury is much easier to root for than Dick Cheney. Unless Davis really knocks it out of the park, a more sensible guess would be Amy Adams or Vanessa Kirby for the academy who voted for Emma Stone, and Holly Hunter to win.

    People would not root for Viola playing a struggling but passionate black female singer whose talent is being used by white establishment, but Amy playing a redneck somehow is a more sensible guess ?

    Especially in times like these ?

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    Hayden
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    #1203791363

    I really don’t see Viola Davis winning this one. It is just not a role that people would root for.

    Not sure I agree with you there.

    Ma Rainey was a blast.

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    George Ehret
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    #1203791468

    I think what might hold Viola back is the possibility that people will think her performance is too similar to Renee Zellweger’s performance in Judy or assume as much without having seen it. For example, when Vice came out the year after Darkest Hour everyone said that Christian Bale was gonna win his second Oscar because he transformed into Dick Cheney. But Gary Oldman had just one the year before and Rami Malek wins instead. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Viola wins, she’s my #2 right now, I’m just saying that this mentality could be a problem for her.

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    Luca
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    #1203791480

    I don’t think Bale lost because Oldman preceded him…

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    George Ehret
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    #1203791488

    That may be true, but there probably were a lot of people who thought his performance was too similar on top of the people who just loved the shit out of Bohemian.

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    #1203791516
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    John Berchmans
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    #1203791542

    I really don’t see Viola Davis winning this one. It is just not a role that people would root for.

    Ma Rainey is a role that people absolutely would vote for. If you want a role that isn’t very meaty, look at McDormand.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Faux architect
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    #1203791571

    I see no weakness for Viola unless the movie is somehow really bad. I can even see her being overshadowed by Chadwick and still winning (even though I don’t think that will be the case). This is a very good role for an Oscar and there’s no one with a better narrative right now.

    Pantheon of acting: Uta / Elizabeth / Richard / Sandy (Virginia Woolf), Bibi / Liv (Persona), Sandrine (La Ceremonie), Brie (Short Term 12), Jodie (Silence of the Lambs), Jodie (Killing Eve), Nicole (The Others), Eva (Penny Dreadful), Timothée (CMBYN), Lupita (Us)

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