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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 33)

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1204059735

    Darlings, this category is actually really strong this year. NomadDormand, Avenger and Pregnant give Oscar-worthy performances. I still need to watch Robber Pike. I know one slot will go to Grillz though.

    I will be so mad if Avenger or Pregnant lose the spot in favour of Poor Adams, who gave the worst performance of her career. I rewatched Hillshitty Elegy and it was terrible… A stain in her immaculate career for sure.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    wolfali
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    I intentionally steered away from the Kirby conversation but the thing that makes me confident that she’ll make it in is I think she’s someone who can really benefit the most from British and European bloc support. She’s a well respected British actress whose star is only rising and her film is very popular internationally and quite European in aesthetic and pedigree.

    FYC: Together in all categories (Actress – Sharon Horgan, Actor – James McAvoy, Original Screenplay), Shiva Baby (Adapted Screenplay, Score), CODA (in all categories esp. S. Actor – Troy Kotsur), Zola (S. Actress – Riley Keough), Together Together (Original Screenplay), The Sparks Brothers (Documentary Feature), Summer of Soul (Documentary Feature)

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    Philip
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    #1204059837

    I intentionally steered away from the Kirby conversation but the thing that makes me confident that she’ll make it in is I think she’s someone who can really benefit the most from British and European bloc support. She’s a well respected British actress whose star is only rising and her film is very popular internationally and quite European in aesthetic and pedigree.

    That could be true but that block could be pushing Mulligan. I don’t think Kirby is missing. I think the top 4 is locked in.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    wolfali
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    That could be true but that block could be pushing Mulligan. I don’t think Kirby is missing. I think the top 4 is locked in.

    Yeah Mulligan is definitely getting the support for the win from both those blocs. She’s a very well respected and prestigious actress on the side of the pond and even though it still doesn’t have a UK release, Promising Young Woman got a tonne of long-list mentions at BAFTA.

    I was more saying that I think Kirby could get nomination support from the British and European blocs of the Academy.

    FYC: Together in all categories (Actress – Sharon Horgan, Actor – James McAvoy, Original Screenplay), Shiva Baby (Adapted Screenplay, Score), CODA (in all categories esp. S. Actor – Troy Kotsur), Zola (S. Actress – Riley Keough), Together Together (Original Screenplay), The Sparks Brothers (Documentary Feature), Summer of Soul (Documentary Feature)

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    Philip
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    Yeah Mulligan is definitely getting the support for the win from both those blocs. She’s a very well respected and prestigious actress on the side of the pond and even though it still doesn’t have a UK release, Promising Young Woman got a tonne of long-list mentions at BAFTA.

    I was more saying that I think Kirby could get nomination support from the British and European blocs of the Academy.

    I agree. I still think that Kirby is in.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    Ghost
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    #1204060068

    Davis
    Mulligan
    McDormand
    Kirby
    Day

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    KAZ-2.5
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    #1204060104

    Comparing Any Adams in Arrival to Kirby is silly because Arrival was a sci fi film while Kirby’s film is the type of pandering middle of the road drama vehicle that the Oscars love nominate performances from. It’s her Judy if you will. Of course she won’t win though.

    This kind of last minute doubting is silly. If she were in a sci fi or horror film I could get it but she isn’t. It reminds me of the few people who desperately held out hope that Lady Gaga would be snubbed for a Star is Born.

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    DaKardii
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    #1204060126

    I’m changing my predictions based on which precursors nominations have or haven’t happened.

    Locks

    • Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    • Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
    • Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
    • Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

    Fighting for the last spot

    • Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
    • Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
    • Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
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    Victor
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    #1204060182

    I’m thinking of replacing Day, her movie is dropping hard with critics and i don’t see how this will become an audience hit. It has worst scores than Malcolm & Marie.

    If Pike wins the comedy globe I’ll put her instead.

    FYC Emmys: Get MJ Rodriguez that deserved WIN! And some votes for Elizabeth Olsen, Tobias Menzies and Matthew Rhys will be highly tasteful as well

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    Kirby is not missing guys, you are all overthinking this.

    I mean, there is literally a fifth slot that is so wide open that we have no idea who is getting it. All the contenders besides the Top 4 having something working against them, or they have missed major precursors. It’s impossible for any one of them to take out Kirby when they are fighting to even get the wide open fifth slot.

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    Philip
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    When Vanessa wins GG on Sunday every hater here will eat crow. Cannot wait to see that.

    Haha, Vanessa is not winning the Globe.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    wolfali
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    Kirby is not missing guys, you are all overthinking this. I mean, there is literally a fifth slot that is so wide open that we have no idea who is getting it. All the contenders besides the Top 4 having something working against them, or they have missed major precursors. It’s impossible for any one of them to take out Kirby when they are fighting to even get the wide open fifth slot.

    Not to mention Netflix is campaigning her heavily and in some ways they’re campaigning her more than Davis and Loren (she’s obviously not ahead of Davis at the Oscars).

    FYC: Together in all categories (Actress – Sharon Horgan, Actor – James McAvoy, Original Screenplay), Shiva Baby (Adapted Screenplay, Score), CODA (in all categories esp. S. Actor – Troy Kotsur), Zola (S. Actress – Riley Keough), Together Together (Original Screenplay), The Sparks Brothers (Documentary Feature), Summer of Soul (Documentary Feature)

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    Luca
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    I agree with you on the whole, but there’s no evidence that they’re campaigning her more than Davis. I see more Ma Rainey FYC ads than I see POAW FYC ads.

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    wolfali
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    I mean they’re campaigning her more on an individual basis (at this moment in time) than they are campaigning for Davis on more of an individual basis. I see more ads around <i>Ma Rainey </i>because it’s a bigger priority in Picture for Netflix and in some categories (like Actress) but what I’m more. trying to say is that they are campaigning Kirby for that 4th slot hard. To the extent that they’re hardly campaigning on an individual basis for Davis to get nominated anymore because they’re confident Davis will get in and they want Kirby to get in as their second Best Actress nominee? If that makes sense.

    FYC: Together in all categories (Actress – Sharon Horgan, Actor – James McAvoy, Original Screenplay), Shiva Baby (Adapted Screenplay, Score), CODA (in all categories esp. S. Actor – Troy Kotsur), Zola (S. Actress – Riley Keough), Together Together (Original Screenplay), The Sparks Brothers (Documentary Feature), Summer of Soul (Documentary Feature)

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    Luca
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    #1204060317

    Fair enough.

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