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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 33)

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    wolfali
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    just feels like Carey is going to dominate everyone else.

    As she should!

    Homegirl is finally getting her due after being snubbed for each of these incredible performances…

    And of course how could I forget her atrocious loss for An Education when both her and Gabourey Sidibe acted circles around that trashy performance that won.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    George Ehret
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    I think that at SAG Davis has to be considered the Frontrunner due to the ensemble nod. I think if there was alot of actor support for PYW, it would have gotten into ensemble. Nomadland was never getting into ensemble.

    You might be interested to know that only 8/25 Best Actress winners at SAG were in Ensemble nominees. Don’t think that Ensemble nod for Ma Rainey’s matters as much as you think it does

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    As she should! Homegirl is finally getting her due after being snubbed for each of these incredible performances… And of course how could I forget her atrocious loss for An Education when both her and Gabourey Sidibe acted circles around that trashy performance that won.

    This should be her second Oscar after a Supporting win for Shame hands fucking down

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    wolfali
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    The thing with <i>Promising Young Woman </i>is it’s like Joker in the sense that it has a strong ensemble cast filled with cameos from all sorts of famous actors (coincidentally most of those actors are television sitcom actors haha) but it really is only anchored by one strong, buzzed about lead performance. Would an ensemble nomination have been nice? Yes. Did some of us predict it? Yes. Would it have helped it? Yes. Does it hurt it? No.

    Ma Rainey won 2 LAFCA awards for acting and one of them was not for Viola Davis. That is one of the few examples of how buzzed about the acting of its ensemble has been. It also is based on an August Wilson play. The previous Viola Davis-Denzel collaboration and adaptation of an August Wilson play got in for ensemble too.

    I guess what I’m saying is that whilst I think Davis could win SAG and that Ma Rainey could do very well there in wins, it’s not as if Mulligan needs an ensemble nomination to win at SAG. Just last year 3/4 of the winners were from films that weren’t nominated in ensemble.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Philip
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    The thing with <i>Promising Young Woman </i>is it’s like Joker in the sense that it has a strong ensemble cast filled with cameos from all sorts of famous actors (coincidentally most of those actors are television sitcom actors haha) but it really is only anchored by one strong, buzzed about lead performance. Would an ensemble nomination have been nice? Yes. Did some of us predict it? Yes. Would it have helped it? Yes. Does it hurt it? No.

    Ma Rainey won 2 LAFCA awards for acting and one of them was not for Viola Davis. That is one of the few examples of how buzzed about the acting of its ensemble has been. It also is based on an August Wilson play. The previous Viola Davis-Denzel collaboration and adaptation of an August Wilson play got in for ensemble too.

    I guess what I’m saying is that whilst I think Davis could win SAG and that Ma Rainey could do very well there in wins, it’s not as if Mulligan needs an ensemble nomination to win at SAG. Just last year 3/4 of the winners were from films that weren’t nominated in ensemble.

    I see what you are saying about PYW and ensemble, but that type of ensemble is exactly what that category is made for. I’m not discounting Carey, I still think this is a tight race for the top 3 women. I’ll be interested to see how the Academy takes to PYW, it feels like it could be hit or miss.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    George Ehret
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    I mean, I don’t disagree with any of what Wolfali just said there.

    And it’s not like there’s a lack of acting support for PYW. So many actors have expressed love for the movie and her performance in it in the same way they did for Joaquin last year. It was probably close to getting in Ensemble anyway considering that there was also Mank and arguably Hillbilly Elegy in the mix. Minari just had a huge rise that kicked those out. Just like Parasite. Makes you wonder.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    wolfali
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    Minari getting 3 SAG nominations and two individual ones in spite of being a film that is in another language goes to show you how much support it has. I mean these are the same people who snubbed the actors from Parasite in the individual categories, shut out Roma and snubbed Isabelle Huppert for Emily Blunt.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    George Ehret
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    I see what you are saying about PYW and ensemble, but that type of ensemble is exactly what that category is made for. I’m not discounting Carey, I still think this is a tight race for the top 3 women. I’ll be interested to see how the Academy takes to PYW, it feels like it could be hit or miss.

    There’s some buzz that a lot of AMPAS members who’ve seen it LOVE it. Obviously the writers’ branch, but the editors’ branch is apparently really taken by it as well. And the BAFTA love for it based on the longlists tells me that there’s AMPAS support because of the British bloc. I’d argue that’s partly why The Favourite and Joker did so well with the Oscars

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    jjjmoss1
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    I feel like I Care a Lot should’ve been pushed earlier. Already almost as many imdb ratings as pieces of a woman; the same Metascore; both got 1 globe nom with one of them starring an oscar nominee (and two time previous globe nominee).

    Also, anecdotally it seems to be getting way more buzz from the general public.

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    Philip
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    Minari getting 3 SAG nominations and two individual ones in spite of being a film that is in another language goes to show you how much support it has. I mean these are the same people who snubbed the actors from Parasite in the individual categories, shut out Roma and snubbed Isabelle Huppert for Emily Blunt.

    I think it is easy to see why Roma wasn’t nominated (acting wasn’t that great). Elle was a hit or miss for people. I hated the film, others loved it.

    And as for the Parasite actors, who do you pick outta that cast for individual recognition? I think their big mistake was placing them all in supporting (if memory serves me right).

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    Philip
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    I feel like I Care a Lot should’ve been pushed earlier. Already almost as many imdb ratings as pieces of a woman; the same Metascore; both got 1 globe nom with one of them starring an oscar nominee (and two time previous globe nominee).

    Also, anecdotally it seems to be getting way more buzz from the general public.

    I Care A Lot is gonna play to a bigger crowd no matter what. Just based on subject matter. Did you really expect the general audience to rush to see a movie with a 30 minute at home birth and the aftermath of a dead baby?

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    wolfali
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    There’s some buzz that a lot of AMPAS members who’ve seen it LOVE it. Obviously the writers’ branch, but the editors’ branch is apparently really taken by it as well. And the BAFTA love for it based on the longlists tells me that there’s AMPAS support because of the British bloc. I’d argue that’s partly why The Favourite and Joker did so well with the Oscars

    he BAFTA long-lists are useful because they essentially are like “don’t underestimate this contender”. I’d argue that unless you’re <i>The Dig </i>(robbed!) that if you get more than 7 long-list mentions and into Best Film at BAFTA for the long-list, it is an interesting sign of strength.

    For example The Mauritanian getting 11 long-lists tells me Jodie Foster could sneak into S. Actress and The White Tiger doing so well tells me it could get into Adapted. Promising Young Woman getting as many long-list mentions as Mank (!!!) tells me that it has a lot of support.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Philip
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    he BAFTA long-lists are useful because they essentially are like “don’t underestimate this contender”. I’d argue that unless you’re <i>The Dig </i>(robbed!) that if you get more than 7 long-list mentions and into Best Film at BAFTA for the long-list, it is an interesting sign of strength.

    For example The Mauritanian getting 11 long-lists tells me Jodie Foster could sneak into S. Actress and The White Tiger doing so well tells me it could get into Adapted. Promising Young Woman getting as many long-list mentions as Mank (!!!) tells me that it has a lot of support.

    I don’t disagree with you, but what other British film is there to support this year? I mean it’s not really all that shocking. I thought this was Emeralds debut as a director. Was she not English for the debut award?

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    George Ehret
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    he BAFTA long-lists are useful because they essentially are like “don’t underestimate this contender”. I’d argue that unless you’re <i>The Dig </i>(robbed!) that if you get more than 7 long-list mentions and into Best Film at BAFTA for the long-list, it is an interesting sign of strength. For example The Mauritanian getting 11 long-lists tells me Jodie Foster could sneak into S. Actress and The White Tiger doing so well tells me it could get into Adapted. Promising Young Woman getting as many long-list mentions as Mank (!!!) tells me that it has a lot of support.

    And to circle back to the clown movie once again, Joker getting 11 nominations at BAFTA was also a major sign of support for the film. Not saying PYW is getting double-digit Oscar nominations, but if AMPAS, loves it as much as they apparently do, it could show in the BAFTA love and that could be a huge sign

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    George Ehret
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    I don’t disagree with you, but what other British film is there to support this year? I mean it’s not really all that shocking. I thought this was Emeralds debut as a director. Was she not English for the debut award?

    The debut snub is weird, but I speculate it might be like the Indie Spirits where you can’t be in both Debut AND Best Film. I might be wrong since I’m not British and don’t know all the BAFTA’s rules, but this is my guess.

    And even though I haven’t seen it yet, The Father seems to be a more British movie than PYW, which only got 8 or 9 longlists I believe

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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