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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 35)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204075427

    After Andra Day’s win and all the headlines that came out of it, they will look bad to not have a black actress winner. My guess is Viola Davis takes the narrative back after winning SAG.

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    Ghost
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    After Andra Day’s win and all the headlines that came out of it, they will look bad to not have a black actress winner. My guess is Viola Davis takes the narrative back after winning SAG.

    And that’s what I think will ultimately happen. It will likely turn into a Day vs. Davis battle, with the narrative being the first black actress winner in nearly 20 years. Mulligan would have to win BAFTA to stop that narrative.

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    lanadelol
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    i’m receiving so much serotonin seeing certain people who hated and made fun of andra for months, moving her up in their predictions 😌

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    wolfali
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    #1204075488

    Not like it matters but people’s querying over what happened the last time someone won the Globe without SAG or BAFTA nominations prompted me to do some digging and the last person to do so was Isabelle Huppert for Elle.

    That year there were four who were nominated at all of BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice (Adams, Portman, Stone, Streep). Adams (who was in a film that only got 2 nominations) missed out for Ruth Negga who got in at the Globes + CC. Portman was the frontrunner before the ceremony having won CC. Stone was in the Best Picture frontrunner and Streep was Streep.

    I’m not saying this means “this will definitely happen” and there are obviously a lot of factors at play this year but I thought it was interesting too look back at the last time we had a big-ish upset here.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1204075496

    Mulligan needed this more than frances and viola that’s why it hurts her worse.

    It hurts worse that PYW won 0 awards. Had the film gone to Comedy/Musical, it might’ve had a better shot of receiving at least 2 Globes (Picture & Actress). But the fact that it couldn’t even win Screenplay says A LOT!

    It’s going to have a hard time appealing to male Academy members for obvious reasons. And even some women may feel the premise didn’t go far enough in its feminism.

    Also the fact that Mulligan is just a critical darling, not an industry favorite. She has no narrative or star wattage to justify a win at this point. The performance is good but we know voters don’t give AF about who was the best or reviews. And now Day has all the buzz. 🤷🏾‍♂️

    👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
    👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204075503

    It hurts worse that PYW won 0 awards. Had the film gone to Comedy/Musical, it might’ve had a better shot of receiving at least 2 Globes (Picture & Actress). But the fact that it couldn’t even win Screenplay says A LOT!

    It’s going to have a hard time appealing to male Academy members for obvious reasons. And even some women may feel the premise didn’t go far enough in its feminism.

    Also the fact that Mulligan is just a critical darling, not an industry favorite. She has no narrative or star wattage to justify a win at this point. The performance is good but we know voters don’t give AF about who was the best or reviews. And now Day has all the buzz. 🤷🏾‍♂️

    How do you know she’s not an industry thing? The Golden Globe is not the industry. FYI: The industry is SAG, Bafta and the Oscar.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204075505

    Frances > Viola sorry ladies.

    Yup. Amazon boxes out-acted Coca-Cola.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    How do you know she’s not an industry thing? The Golden Globe is not the industry. FYI: The industry is SAG, Bafta and the Oscar.

    It’s funny how the Globes don’t matter when certain people don’t win. But had Mulligan won, it would be a different story.

    GG are as industry as you can get: the press, journalists, & celebrities.

    SAG & BAFTA are more indicative of what Oscar voters might like. But let’s not downplay the Globes as if they’re the Satellite Awards. It’s still a prestigious show that has impact … on the industry. Hence why so many PYW stans were hoping it would win.

    👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
    👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)

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    jjjmoss1
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    #1204075598

    The precedents for double lead winners despite one of them having such minor screentime: Lambs, Cuckoo, Network.

    But Ma Rainey does not feel like a Hannibal Lecter, Nurse Ratched, or Howard Beale. Two of those are in AFI’s T5 Villains OAT, one has an AFI T20 Quote OAT.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204075612

    It’s going to have a hard time appealing to male Academy members for obvious reasons. And even some women may feel the premise didn’t go far enough in its feminism.

    All I know is that I’m female and I’ve talked with dozens and dozens and dozens of people about PYW, and every single male I’ve talked to liked the movie— most a lot; the only people I know who dislike PYW (significantly less than 10%) are female, and even those women think Carey’s performance was terrific. Of course there will be conservative old fart male AMPAS members who will dislike the film but I suspect their number is smaller than you think.

    Most significantly, I think the older conservative male AMPAS members to whom PYW won’t appeal are the same voters who are unlikely to vote for Viola or Andra— these aren’t people who like to honor strong, opinionated, talented Black women (or men)

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    Calvin
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    #1204075629

    In my opinion, Andra Day is potentially the Sylvester Stallone of this year, it all stacks up: probably the sole nomination for her film, won at Globes, and Carey Mulligan the Mark Rylance: British darling, BAFTA nominee and in what will likely be the most nominated film of her category’s contenders.

    Having said that Stallone and Rylance didn’t have nearly as strong a competition as Day and Mulligan do in their lineup. Look to Viola Davis being the SAG winner   (the Idris Elba in Beasts equivalent) except she’s a lock for an Oscar nom already and ends up winning.

     

    FYC:

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Victor Cruz
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    It’s funny how the Globes don’t matter when certain people don’t win. But had Mulligan won, it would be a different story.

    GG are as industry as you can get: the press, journalists, & celebrities.

    SAG & BAFTA are more indicative of what Oscar voters might like. But let’s not downplay the Globes as if they’re the Satellite Awards. It’s still a prestigious show that has impact … on the industry. Hence why so many PYW stans were hoping it would win.

    I’m not saying the Globe is not prestigious. They are very influential mainly cause of is history. But it’s MEMBERS are not the industry. They’re not actors, producers, cinematographers, editors, directors etc. That’s why BAFTA usually decides the winner in a scattered race because it’s a similar structure as the Oscar.

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    Villeneuve
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    #1204075698

    Maybe we get a Day-Mulligan tie

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204075710

    Today it’s so pathetic that actors still care about GG. The way they let their capability as an actor judged by random journalist across the globe is so demeaning to their job. I wonder why this should affect the choice they make for Oscar, which is essentially far more prestigious than this.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1204075731

    But Ma Rainey does not feel like a Hannibal Lecter, Nurse Ratched, or Howard Beale. Two of those are in AFI’s T5 Villains OAT, one has an AFI T20 Quote OAT.

    What kind of logic is this?

    If Viola wins SAG she’s winning the Oscar. If she doesn’t win SAG then she won’t win the Oscar. I feel very confident in that math.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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