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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 35)

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    Gwen
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    #1204076106

    The buzz and the excitement around Andra is overwhelming: Regina King, Halle Berry, even Hillary Clinton, and all the articles pointing out the potential historical win at the Oscars… Right now, she doesn’t just feel like the frontrunner, she is the frontrunner. If in the next weeks Carey wins Sag and Bafta, and CC before that, I’ll see this as a two-horse race (I say Carey because she’s the one that still has a good shot, imho): but since we’re in a crazy year, I don’t see the Sag and Bafta missing as fatal wounds for Andra.

    2021 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Actress: CAREY MULLIGAN for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
    Best Actor: DELROY LINDO for DA 5 BLOODS
    Best Supporting Actress: GLENN CLOSE for HILLBILLY ELEGY

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    gorman
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    #1204076114

    The Globes did definitely enhance Day’s viability as a winner here, both boosting her and denting those above her in the odds, and the late-breaking nature of the performance could serve her very well. The film’s overall quality (it having no chance of a BP nom) and the SAG and BAFTA misses do feel like big problems. This does seem like an odd year, but is there any recent examples of a winner starring in a movie with middling reviews, being relatively unknown and missing major precursors still taking the award? I can’t think of any, and its a combination that makes me think she isn’t going to win. On the flip side, she’s playing a globally recognised icon, the reviews for the performance itself are strong, she’s campaigning a lot and the stronger competition all still have uphill battles.

    Another telling thing for me in regard to her not winning is that the film made none of the shortlists. The Globes caring more about her performance is evidenced by her song making their 5, but the Academy didn’t even shortlist it, and the movie also isn’t listed for Makeup and Hair. Those are two noms that would have suggested to me they were really paying attention to Day’s performance.

    I think the Globes makes her the firm 4th or 5th, but the win still strikes me as out of reach.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204076116

    That math didn’t work for her with The Help.

    Exactly. Viola doesn’t win competitive races. If she wins SAG is because they are enamored with her and will give it to her for anything she does.

    BAFTA is the key to this race.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204076120

    The way 3 Black actors are going to win.. we absolutely love to see it.

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    hopelesstar
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    Mar 10th, 2020
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    #1204076124

    The way 3 Black actors are going to win.. we absolutely love to see it.

    And we might get Youn in supporting too!

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204076126

    The Globes did definitely enhance Day’s viability as a winner here, both boosting her and denting those above her in the odds, and the late-breaking nature of the performance could serve her very well. The film’s overall quality (it having no chance of a BP nom) and the SAG and BAFTA misses do feel like big problems. This does seem like an odd year, but is there any recent examples of a winner starring in a movie with middling reviews, being relatively unknown and missing major precursors still taking the award? I can’t think of any, and its a combination that makes me think she isn’t going to win. On the flip side, she’s playing a globally recognised icon, the reviews for the performance itself are strong, she’s campaigning a lot and the stronger competition all still have uphill battles.

    Another telling thing for me in regard to her not winning is that the film made none of the shortlists. The Globes caring more about her performance is evidenced by her song making their 5, but the Academy didn’t even shortlist it, and the movie also isn’t listed for Makeup and Hair. Those are two noms that would have suggested to me they were really paying attention to Day’s performance.

    I think the Globes makes her the firm 4th or 5th, but the win still strikes me as out of reach.

    I’d be calling Day a frontrunner if she at least got shortlisted by BAFTA. I mean even Zendaya was able to get shortlisted at BAFTA and AACTA.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204076130

    Day winning is of course very possible but I am surprised to see people naming her the outright frontrunner. The way I see it, if this was a non-pandemic year she would absolutely be out front now despite her other nomination snubs. As things are though, she has got to maintain that momentum for another two months without her or her film likely even being mentioned at the major upcoming ceremonies. If Critics Choice panic in their desperation to predict and pick her then I’ll maybe reconsider. But as things are I just don’t see how by the time the Oscars come around at the end of April, the conversation won’t have switched to one of the other contenders.

    Right now I’m picking McDormand. Which makes me sad as the only thing the Globes really did help with the other night is definitively making me realise that I am rooting for Mulligan to win.

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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    JV
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    #1204076159

    Right now I’m just rooting for BFCA to be an agent of chaos and award Sidney Flanigan there. They’re too afraid of backlash to do that, sadly.

    They’re probably going with Andra Day to copy paste the Globes so they can say that they had influence on Day’s Oscar nomination.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204076164

    Watch as a new shock winner is awarded at CC:

    Andriola McMulligan

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204076178

    Ugh please no ties with glitchy Zoom

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204076193

    Ya are forgetting who is the real one coming.

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    Milk Money
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    #1204076206

    Halle Berry lost the Golden Globe to Sissy Spacek (previous Oscar winner), that was the first year CCA introduced nominees and Spacek won over Kidman and Zellweger (Berry was not even nominated). Back then they used to be a big deal because that meant you had passion from critics. Coming to SAG, Berry was a sole nominee up against 2 women from Ensemble nominated films : Connelly and Spacek, both Golden Globe winners, SAG actually went out of their way to reward Halle Berry, you have to remember she was not a frontrunner, not at SAG, not before the Globes. That narrative has been used twice in the course of history, Viola was against Meryl playing Margaret Thatcher in a film distributed by Harvey Weinstein, so pretty much impossible to beat. No WoC has since ever gained that much momentum for Best Actress. I don’t know how much you want to believe but this race is clearly between Andra Day and Viola Davis. McDormand and the others will have to settle for nominations.

    And if that’s the case, Day wins easily.

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    wolfali
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    #1204076222

    I agree with forwardswill. My main concern for Day is how she keeps up in momentum because this season is quite long. It helps that her film is a late breaker and a tie or a win at CC would help her but I think her problem is that there is a much bigger gap between the BAFTAs and SAG from the Globes. And she’s not nominated at either. So if Mulligan wins the BAFTA or Davis wins SAG or McDormand wins both then I think she may suffer a dent in her momentum.

    Obviously she doesn’t necessarily need this exact path to win but the most ideal path for her would be if she wins Critics Choice, Adams wins SAG and Kirby wins BAFTA.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204076257

    I can’t see how Frances being in the BP frontrunner helps her. Actually, it’s statistically bad for her chances, since we don’t have a Picture/Actress winner since 2004.

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