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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 35)

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204076455

    The interesting thing about critics choice, however is that many of their winners have not been critics favorites the year they won. We could go with Sandra Bullock the year she and Meryl tied. Sandra was by no means a critics favorite, but they rewarded her. Same thing the year Viola won for “The Help”, she wasn’t. She held her own, but most were taken by Meryl. Renee won with minimal critics support. There could be a case where at least 5 of the nominees has a chance at winning there or hell, they can give two to three of the nominees a trophy to make headlines about this big tie there. Lol Never know with them..

    Very good point. We never know indeed.

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    Victor Cruz
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    Sep 8th, 2013
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    #1204076457

    People Day is winning CC. I bet most of them changed their ballots after the Golden Globes.

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    DCurrie
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    Sep 18th, 2011
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    #1204076462

    Very good point. We never know indeed.

    They probably feel compelled to throw a curveball in best actress now that the Globes have spoken. Lol I do sense a tie there, though, and I’m sure part of the tie will involve Day.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204076476

    People Day is winning CC. I bet most of them changed their ballots after the Golden Globes.

    They haven’t even voted yet, so GG will definitely influence their choices!

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204076496

    The best thing that could happen to Andra right now is having two different winners at SAG and BAFTA. If it’s the same one, I’d say that person wins the Oscar. Kind of like what happened to… Regina King (closest scenario I can see, even if it’s still different)

    Agreed. I’d say Day is in tougher position than King because:

    King was in supporting, easier category to win

    King won for her career, Day is a newcomer

    King was the only WoC in the line-up so the inclusion and #oscarsowhite narratives (which really drive nominations and wins this year) were all hers.  No splitting votes. OTOH, Day shares this narrative with Davis who, in return, is facing the same problem. Heck, even their roles are similar: iconic black singer fighting white men in power.

    So even if we have awards repeat of King (wins Critics Choice while SAG goes to an actress who misses the nomination and BAFTA to a different actress),  voters who vote for narrative rather than performance might split votes between Day and Davis giving an an edge to another actress.

    IMO, too early to call one way or the other. We need more awards.

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    Luca
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    #1204076505

    The thing with CCA is that people falsely equate its members with traditional critics. They aren’t that at all. Hence, we don’t see critics’ darlings win there all that often. With GG givibg us the Andra Day curveball, I think she is at the very least winning in a tie here. Maybe she even wins by herself because honestly, who’d be the runner-up? You can make the case for at least three other actresses IMO. I will put Andra at No. 1 and Carey at No. 2.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204076518

    Well I am worried that might be the case. The problem Kirby has (in this particular year) with both Pike and Day winning is that they now have more visibility.

    The problem that Kirby has so far is lack of any kind of support that moves her from also-run/thanks for participation/nomination-is-her-reward league into frontrunner/challenger/dark horse one. Also-runs with no chance of winning are always the most vulnerable which we saw in cases of Adams (Arrival), Gyllenhaal (Nightstalker), Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) just to name those who hit the big 4  (without expectation to win) and still got snubbed.

    I thought that critics would rally behind Kirby yet Flanagan emerged as their favorite with Mulligan in a tow. So no critical backing, no Globe win, no pundit talk of winning the whole shebang. She seems like a default nominee rather than a passion one. So far. Any precursor going forward could change that in particular because Globe winners are gonna sit out SAG and BAFTA. So we’ll see.

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1204076525

    CC will be a tie between Day and one of Carey or Frances, I think. Frances has a better chance of winning now so probably her.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1204076531

    Or it’ll be a three-way tie LOL! How crazy would that be!

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Joe Burns
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    Jan 26th, 2014
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    #1204076541

    Of course she is. Where have you been? Libya has friggin slave markets thanks to Clinton and Obama, and this is just one of the dastardly things they enabled/did. https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/08/hillary-clinton-secretary-state-war-drones/

    That’s all far left rhetoric that is incredibly biased.

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    MysticMagix
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    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1204076553

    So we can all collectively agree that if andra wins shes deserving? Bcs her performance is very very good. Even my mom who rarely watches movies/tv (if she does it’s mostly British stuff) She immediately said praises for andra after the film, without me even saying anything.

    A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.

    ~ MYSTIC

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204076559

    Momentum is very important. Oscar voting closes 7 weeks from today (Tuesday after Globes). Last year it was 4 weeks. Whoever wins Critics Choice (assuming it’s not Day) is going to have time to reclaim the narrative and they won’t be challenged by Day again until the Oscars.

    Even in 4 weeks it’s hard to keep up momentum. Look at how Sam Mendes won the Globe and then won each televised award but then lost the Oscar as he more or less lost momentum at the end whilst  Bong and Parasite gained momentum. Or how Glenn won the Globe, SAG and Critics Choice but then Olivia Colman and <i>The Favourite </i>was gaining momentum through the televised.

    With Andra Day, Aaron Sorkin and <i>The Trial of the Chicago 7</i> and some of the other winners from the Globes what is key for them is that others contenders such as Davis/McDormand/Mulligan, Fennell, Minari etc do not build momentum with each televised award and each televised award nomination. What helped Regina King in particular was that Amy Adams went nowhere and even though Rachel Weisz won the BAFTA, she had no narrative and arguably had the upper hand at BAFTA because she was on home turf. King also was everywhere and visible at BAFTA and SAG.

    So really this (and some of the other races at the Oscars this year) will be very interesting to see over the next 7 weeks. Some of them are wrapped up like Supporting Actor, Director and Actor and some of them are wide open.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Butz
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    Oct 15th, 2020
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    #1204076561

    Andra was definitely good but out of all the five likely contenders (even six if we include Pike) I found her to be the weakest. But maybe that’s because the movie surrounding her is so incredibly weak.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    na digga
    Joined:
    Aug 21st, 2013
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    #1204076577

    I think cc will go to Andra. I don’t see Viola Winning cc but if she does somehow win by herself and wins sag then bafta will follow Because if they don’t it would cause backlash and Viola gets Oscar. But I highly doubt that will happen. Either Andra wins with(Frances/Carey/Viola) or Andra or Carey win cc. If Andra wins cc by herself I think she automatically becomes the favorite to win the Oscar. Carey needs cc. If she wins alone and gets sag/bafta she becomes the favorite again. But if Andra wins with Carey and viola wins sag and Carey wins bafta I think that it would be a situation where Andra has a slight edge over viola. Since it would signal voters are unsure of who to pick(Viola/Carey) since both sag and bafta have Oscar voters and in that case I think Andra would pull ahead with overwhelming support(if she even gets nominated, which I’m still unsure of)

    FYC Best Actress 2021: Viola Davis!!!

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    MysticMagix
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    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1204076588

    I loveee viola. But andra had much more to do and to play with. I agree the film is so weak and badly written/edited but the way andra never stopped acting no matter the person speaking or the action. I could just tell she was improving some parts and really was IN the role.

    A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.

    ~ MYSTIC

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