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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 37)

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    George Ehret
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    I’m not predicting ties because they are SO unpredictable, but it would not shock me if Carey and Andra tied. Imo the only person who could break that up is Frances, and that’s only cause Nomadland’s Gonna win Best Picture there.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Melvinezq
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    I hope Andray Day gets the Oscar so being nominated for all the precursors stops being mandatory for the win and future races remain interesting until the moment the envelope gets open at the ceremony.

    What about Julia Garner, Morfydd Claark or Nicole Beharie win that one? Not nominated in Globe, SAG, CC and AACTA shouldn’t be a problem for them.

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    wolfali
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    Promising Young Woman won HCA for Best Picture. It’s coming for Best Picture at the Critics Choice!!!

    Lol no.

    I’m a massive PYW fan but I’ve learnt through my time on here that it’s not good to overhype a film’s chances that much because then others come and shade it when it doesn’t meet unrealistic expectations. If it wins CC great (it won’t, Nomadland is locked for the win there). But let’s not go that far yet lol.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Joe Burns
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    #1204087100

    Isn’t Promising Young Woman the type of film that the older, male members of the Academy will run away from in droves? Let’s not pretend the Academy doesn’t have a sexism problem which I think was one reason The Favourite did poorly than expected a couple of years ago in addition to the style of the film. Several of Glenn Close’s Oscar losses have also been for portrayals of female characters that most likely were turnoffs for many Academy members. Gone Girl doing so badly six years ago is another factor that makes me feel the Academy is sadly not progressive enough on women centric films that deal with sexism, gender, women’s issues.

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204087108

    Isn’t Promising Young Woman the type of film that the older, male members of the Academy will run away from in droves? Let’s not pretend the Academy doesn’t have a sexism problem which I think was one reason The Favourite did poorly than expected a couple of years ago in addition to the style of the film. Several of Glenn Close’s Oscar losses have also been for portrayals of female characters that most likely were turnoffs for many Academy members. Gone Girl doing so badly six years ago is another factor that makes me feel the Academy is sadly not progressive enough on women centric films that deal with sexism, gender, women’s issues.

    Queen Anne, the lesbian queen (especially in the film), literally won over person who’s the most overdue for respect both in film (as a ghostwriter) and real life. I’m just saying that they’re not consistent most of the time.

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    George Ehret
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    Isn’t Promising Young Woman the type of film that the older, male members of the Academy will run away from in droves? Let’s not pretend the Academy doesn’t have a sexism problem which I think was one reason The Favourite did poorly than expected a couple of years ago in addition to the style of the film. Several of Glenn Close’s Oscar losses have also been for portrayals of female characters that most likely were turnoffs for many Academy members. Gone Girl doing so badly six years ago is another factor that makes me feel the Academy is sadly not progressive enough on women centric films that deal with sexism, gender, women’s issues.

    The Favourite received 10 nominations and was realistically not expected to win most of its nominations. It was competitive with Black Panther in Costumes and Art Direction, competitive with Green Book in Screenplay, Colman was competitive with Close, and it wasn’t expected to win literally anything else. Sure, some Rachel Weisz, but that’s cause she won at BAFTA where Regina King wasn’t nominated. There was no way it was gonna win Picture, Director, Editing, Emma Stone, or Cinematography. I don’t think the comparison is fair

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    marty
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    #1204087116

    PYW actually felt like a very safe and PC take on rape and toxic men to me. I’m curious, how many of you guys felt that it was “man-hating”? I’m not a guy so I can’t speak to how the men in the Academy would be feeling about how the movie paints its male characters.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    SN
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    I’m curious, how many of you guys felt that it was “man-hating”?

    I don’t think it was “man-hating”. I mean, every supporting character except the parents, the coffee shop manager and the lawyer were bad people.

    That said, the movie left me a bit uncomfortable. The whole “nice men can be potential rapists” message is a necessary one, but I can’t deny it was unsettling.

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    Joe Burns
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    #1204087146

    The Favourite received 10 nominations and was realistically not expected to win most of its nominations. It was competitive with Black Panther in Costumes and Art Direction, competitive with Green Book in Screenplay, Colman was competitive with Close, and it wasn’t expected to win literally anything else. Sure, some Rachel Weisz, but that’s cause she won at BAFTA where Regina King wasn’t nominated. There was no way it was gonna win Picture, Director, Editing, Emma Stone, or Cinematography. I don’t think the comparison is fair

    The Favourite was largely predicted to take Original Screenplay and either Costumes or Production Design or both. It losing all three of those was a surprise.

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    Lil Tony
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    likelihood of getting a nomination

    1. Frances McDormand

    2. Viola Davis

    3. Carey Mulligan

    4. Andra Day

    5. Vanessa Kirby

    Y’all gotta be honest for once. Drama Globe winner can’t be 4th for likelihood of getting nominated. All of a sudden, the almighty HFPA has been reduced to nothing because they didn’t give it to the predicted winner. Keep dreaming

    Andra Day should be winning Best Actress

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    kaziz
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    PYW actually felt like a very safe and PC take on rape and toxic men to me. I’m curious, how many of you guys felt that it was “man-hating”? I’m not a guy so I can’t speak to how the men in the Academy would be feeling about how the movie paints its male characters.

    Non-binary but male-presenting here, and I agree. It’s actually very safe and PC, and I’m a little tired of seeing people act like it’s some insanely subversive and insightful film on rape culture. We’re at a time when things like We Will Destroy You are getting made—interestingly, WWDY has an almost-parallel episode to the whole premise of PYW and it does so so so so much more with it. I found PYW weak and a little indulgent. Perhaps the only jolt I got was the ending. Good for Fennell for an unexpected twist. Is it the most original twist in the world? Hell no. Does it ultimately make the film a stronger statement on rape culture? Also no. It was mostly just horror-movie-twist and…mmkay.

    I actually had a similar problem with PYW as I had will Hillbilly Elegy, funnily enough. HE’s biggest problem (apart from Amy Adams’ embarrassing performance) is that it’s told through the wrong narrator. That stems from the book, sure, but JD Vance is simply not the right protagonist for this story. His sister would’ve been better. Apart from the weird chronology of the film, that felt the most off to me. And I felt it again with PYW: I understand the concept of Mulligan’s character seeking revenge and processing trauma after what happened to her friend, but there was almost nothing to show what kind of bond they had, what the context was, or even who Mulligan’s character used to be. She was supposed to be a doctor and then dropped out but who was she before that? All of emotional connective tissue felt absent, and it’s sad because there’s a lot of things the movie did well—it just didn’t fully connect as to why the story was being told from the perspective of Mulligan’s character. Is 2 seconds with the friend’s mom enough to justify the choice? I don’t know.

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    MultipleOscarWinner
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    What I meant is that Andra is only gaining momentum because of her precursor win, so to say that you wish precursors were not a thing for Oscar predictions is a bit paradoxical.

    Not really. Even when someone wins a precursor without being nominated for another, we already know they’re losing the Oscar. Regina King is the sole exception so far, and didn’t get SAG nominated most likely because she was submitted late (and they’re very consistent at that).

    FYC:

    Best Actor:
    Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

    Best Actress:
    Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always

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    George Ehret
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    #1204087205

    The Favourite was largely predicted to take Original Screenplay and either Costumes or Production Design or both. It losing all three of those was a surprise.

    Sure, but it was still competitive. Critics’ Choice went with Black Panther in both and they’re extremely accurate in those categories. Green Book just had that late rise where despite the controversy, it was able to pull out ahead. I find it hard to believe that The Favourite was opposed because of its LGBT feminist themes yet it got 10 nominations and even a win.

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    MultipleOscarWinner
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    #1204087211

    What about Julia Garner, Morfydd Claark or Nicole Beharie win that one? Not nominated in Globe, SAG, CC and AACTA shouldn’t be a problem for them.

    Her winning could open another door of non-nominated at precursors performances that get to win Oscars if nominated. That’s an even more ambitious and great scenario, but I think this Day situation would have to come first for that to happen.

    FYC:

    Best Actor:
    Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

    Best Actress:
    Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always

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    MultipleOscarWinner
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    #1204087233

    Also, could you please not deviate the conversation from this specific thread? I want to contribute with my two cents to the Promising Young Woman talk but I refuse to do it here. Does someone have a link to the specific thread made for the film?

    FYC:

    Best Actor:
    Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

    Best Actress:
    Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always

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