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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 4)

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    wolfali
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    #1203810070

    He never clocked anything… All he did was try to accuse everyone of being a Loren stan just bc they had her in their lineup…

    And then start throwing tantrums over random predictions and stuff that went on in threads months ago.

    Can we just all agree that Loren has a chance at getting nominated and that it’s too early to rule people out? Especially this year.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Bee
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    #1203810132

    What about Alfre Woodard?

    She needed critics to happen since Clemency was a tiny indie movie that would have a late release. She’d basically have to be another Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years but Lupita took all of the critics’ attention.

    Loren isn’t in an acclaimed film and usually the trifecta (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC) leans towards actresses who are in critically adored films by association (The Kids Are Alright, The Deep Blue Sea, Blue Jasmine, 2 Days 1 Night, Brooklyn, Elle, Lady Bird, Support the Girls, Us all had 81+ MC scores for the NYFCC Best Actress winners this decade. This goes for the LAFCA and NSFC winners as well). The Life Ahead, calculating the scores, would be in the 60s MC. Yes, Meryl Streep had NYFCC for Julie & Julia and The Iron Lady but she’s the exception to most rules.

    I could buy a Globe nom for Loren but she’d have to get ahead of Adams, Winslet, and Kirby. That’s not impossible for her, especially with Jennifer Hudson out of the race.

    The only foreign-language performances that SAG in Actress has recognized is Catalina Sandino Moreno, Penelope Cruz and Marion Cotillard. That’s 3 in 25 years, so her odds are unlikely there.

    BAFTA….don’t see it.

    Basically, the way I see it, Loren would have to be a passion vote and when pundits are pushing more of Vanessa Kirby for that slot, I find it hard to believe she’d overcome that.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810140

    Sophia Loren could easily get in if the reviews are great and voters get behind her comeback as a narrative. 🤷🏾‍♂️

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    wolfali
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    #1203810146

    The way people are ruling out Best Actress contenders as if every film that is a contender this year has had raves or as if we get actresses nominated from films with good reviews is funny. The Oscars aren’t a meritocracy.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Bee
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    #1203810163

    Sophia Loren could easily get in if the reviews are great and voters get behind her comeback as a narrative. 🤷🏾‍♂️

    That’s the thing. Reviews for The Life Ahead, so far, are not “great”. They’re merely fine. What would actually work in her benefit is if it became the frontrunner for Foreign Language Film.

    And sure, not every Oscar nominee film needs to be raved, but it definitely helps if it is adored if it isn’t a top priority for voters. Nomadland, Ma Rainey, Billie Holiday, Hillbilly Elegy, The Prom will all be viewed before The Life Ahead. Then, you also have to consider Pieces of a Woman and Ammonite and even though I don’t think Kirby is making it (and her film has similar reviews to The Life Ahead), at least she has pundit hype and a showier performance. Kate Winslet has 7 nominations so she has the namecheck advantage. People like her, Meryl, Amy Adams, Viola Davis are the ones who don’t need their films to be amazing in order to get nods considering how frequent they are in recent awards nominations and their films are more awards friendly.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810165

    It’s not inconceivable to believe Loren gets in on good will either. She is a legend after all. With an Oscar on her mantle. We’ve seen many vets get in based on respect or a comeback. It’s too early to rule her out.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810220

    Paul Newman, Nobody’s Fool

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    Bee
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    #1203810229

    Paul Newman, Nobody’s Fool

    Plsssssssss. Paul Newman had 7 nominations at that time, won NYFCC and NSFC and had a late break release date where voters would see him at the peak of voting. Nobody’s Fool also got a Screenplay nod.

    Who else? You need more than just goodwill and being a legend.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810237

    Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810243

    Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

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    Bee
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    #1203810246

    Her first and only nom, she was in for the win.. who else?

    Not to mention this was in the SUPPORTING category, she won the Globe and she still lost to someone in the Best Picture winner (Juliette Binoche).

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810251

    Isabelle Huppert, Elle

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810253

    Gloria Swanson, Sunset Boulevard

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    Bee
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    #1203810255

    Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

    LAFCA and NSFC win as well as benefitting from an extremely weak category, weaker than this year. I told you this several times, lmfao

    Stick to the Grammys section, chile.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203810257

    Bette Davis, Whatever Happened to Baby Jane

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