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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 40)

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    JakeT
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    Sep 4th, 2019
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    #1204138810

    I’m rooting for Michaela Coel to replace Lupita in The Woman King.

    Now this is casting I can get behind! Inspired!

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    wolfali
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    #1204138832

    Anywho…..I’m rooting for Michaela Coel to replace Lupita in The Woman King.

    Perhaps I’m slightly biased because I stan her to death but I really want this to happen! Maybe not for much longer now as a result of her phenomenal work in I May Destroy You but I’ve always felt she was underrated as a dramatic performer. She was excellent in Black Earth Rising.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    JV
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    #1204138854

    I get using stats to make sense of this race, but I think you have to consider the possibility of Andra missing out on a SAG nom merely because not enough voters saw the movie before voting ended. I am fairly confident that had the movie been made available earlier, she would have been nominated and won. The boost from the Globe nom and all the press she and Viola got yesterday should only help her. Plus, as I have said, she ticks all the boxes with her performance.

    I agree.

    But I think the lack of passion for her movie is something to consider. Both Monster and Still Alice had better reception and Moore had the overdue narrative. The Iron Lady had bad reception, but that was Meryl Streep and her third Oscar.

    People have said before, but maybe the craft and Screenplay branches won’t vote for her because they probably will have no interest in watching the film (Costume Design snub for Billie Holiday is telling), if they vote at all since they are discouraged from voting in categories where they lack expertise. If only actors voted for actors, she would win.

    But that’s a crazy season, so anything could happen. Even Viola could win, since transformative performances often take Make Up as well.

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    Jazzy
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    Dec 3rd, 2018
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    #1204138878

    In 20 years, 8 Best Actress winners were in movies that did not got nominated for BP.

    In 20 years, only 5 Best Actress winners were the sole acting nominees from movies that got nominated for BP. 4 of those winners won all 4 precursors.

    FYC: Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

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    JV
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    #1204138907

    In 20 years, only 5 Best Actress winners were the sole acting nominees from movies that got nominated for BP. 4 of those winners won all 4 precursors.

    I get it. It’s a unusual year and stats don’t matter.

    I was aiming for the fact that it’s easier to win without a BP nom if your movie has at least craft/screenplay Support.

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    JV
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    #1204138991

    You’re saying absolutely no one will vote for you if your film misses BP and has zero nomination in stats? This is kinda way too hypothetical and so far from reality. It’s like saying someone that missed both SAG and BAFTA can’t get nominated, given that AMPAS acting branch = sag and bafta (actors). So if you have zero support from those two in the first place, you can’t get in… which is obviously not true as evidenced by Day herself being an Oscar nominee today. People vote for what they love, if they like her performance she will win regardless of those stats and stuff.

    What I’m saying is: The whole voting branch votes for everything to decide the winner.

    If you have nominations for craft/Screenplay, it means your movie has support from something that’s not only the acting branch, so it’s easier to win Best Actress with this support, even if your movie is a non-BP nominee.
    People from craft/screenplay aren’t necessarily acting experts. They vote for the movie they like more.

    I’ve gave you stats. Only Moore and Theron have won being their movie’s sole nomination.

    That’s how Glenn Close lost.

    I’m not saying Andra Day won’t win. Just saying that will be difficult for her. If she wins, then will be a historic win.

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204138997

    I think you have to consider the possibility of Andra missing out on a SAG nom merely because not enough voters saw the movie before voting ended. I am fairly confident that had the movie been made available earlier, she would have been nominated and won.

    A sincere question: Does SAG have a history of awarding actors with minimal or no acting experience? I would think that some SAG members would resist doing so, thinking it somehow diminishes their years of training and work on their craft. For this reason, I suspect that Andra would not have won SAG, even if the movie had been made available earlier.

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    Matheus Vaz
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    Nov 1st, 2019
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    #1204139017

    i’m rooting for carey but all of the nominees are deserving, i’m happy for whoever wins from now on.

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    Milk Money
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    Oct 2nd, 2013
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    #1204139386

    Shocked to find this thread on the 2nd page for once lol.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204139469

    Shocked to find this thread on the 2nd page for once lol.

    Enjoy it, because when SAG comes around, yikes.

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    wolfali
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    #1204139612

    Will Promising Young Woman gets its Joker moment has been trending all day here and the film hasn’t even been released here yet lmao.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1204139623

    I can’t be the only who hates the Joker comparisons. It’s such an insult to Promising Young Woman. Plus, it’s not like rage is this comparable😑 Also, you know, Cassie doesn’t kill people; she’s not the “female Joker.” I have just hated the comparisons all season long.

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    wolfali
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    #1204139633

    I can’t be the only who hates the Joker comparisons. It’s such an insult to Promising Young Woman. Plus, it’s not like rage is this comparable😑 Also, you know, Cassie doesn’t kill people. I have just hated the comparisons all season long.

    Oh I wholeheartedly agree with you! In fact I only was made aware of it because I just had a long heated argument with a friend about it.

    Unlike Arthur Fleck, Cassandra is not a psychopath who decides to commit terrorism as a form of showing her rage or violence. She’s just an individual who (whilst obviously a very flawed character) is seeking revenge after she’s suffered trauma from losing someone who she considered in the same vein as a sister. She expresses this vengeance by trying to show men (and women) who think they’re “nice people” that they’re not good and that they perpetuate these horrific acts against women.

    I think as a culture as a whole it’s very clear that we don’t know how to interpret diverse female characters on screen. Amy Dunne is comparable to Arthur Fleck, Cassandra Thomas is not.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    wolfali
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    #1204139671

    People need to stop comparing these two movies.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    Naiad Lyne
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    #1204139694

    Joker literally killed people and he is alive and well at the end of the movie, while Cassie didn’t kill anybody and is…welll, you know at the end of movie.

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