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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 41)

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    oscarin7
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    #1204148083

    Stats are meant to be broken tho And the narrative for Day is only growing.

    And so is Mulligan’s. 😂

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    Butz
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    #1204148089

    So if Andra, Glenn and Chadwick win, would this be the first year ever where three out of the four winners were not in Best Picture nominees ever? And two of them were in movies that were legitimately trashed? I’m sorry, I just don’t see that happening. Andra is in a way better position than Glenn though, and tbh, I could much rather live with her winning for a good performance in a bad movie than with Glenn winning for a meh performance in an awful movie.

    FYC - Oscars 2022:
    NINE DAYS in all categories, including:
    - Best Picture
    - Best Director
    - Best Original Screenplay
    - Best Actor (Winston Duke)
    - Best Supporting Actress (Zazie Beetz)
    - Best Supporting Actor (Benedict Wong)

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    oscarin7
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    #1204148091

    We are all aware of the SAG stat. But again, I think Day’s snub could be chalked up to the late distribution of her movie. Had she been nominated, she’d be winning.

    Yeah, but that’s only speculation. Even if she had been nominated at SAG she could have still lost to any of the others. And the fact that she wasn’t nominated points out that maybe her performance doesn’t have strong support. Plus, she’s the only nomination for that film and let’s get real she is no Julianne Moore. So while yes she could win, I don’t think her narrative is strong enough to get her the Oscar.

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    Luca
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    #1204148095

    All we do here is speculate. After all, people like you are predicting Carey Mulligan based on what exactly? Her movie did extraordinarily well in nominations, yes, whereas Andra is her movie’s only nom. I get it. But voters aren’t that dumb; they can separate performance and movie. Just because USvBH is not a good movie doesn’t mean voters won’t vote for Day, the best part of it. Conversely, just because PYW is a good movie and did very well in noms doesn’t mean Carey has an automatic edge. In fact, I’d say getting nominated in spite of little to no support for your movie is much more of an achievement.

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    oscarin7
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    #1204148097

    Honestly this sounded more like I don’t want her to win. SAG nom com did not see her film, which is different from Amanda Seyfried for example. They rarely care for late entries see DiCaprio and Hill missing for Wall Street, Daniel Day Lewis for Phantom Thread, Streep for The Post etc… it’s a known fact.

    It’s possible it was a late entry and not many voters watched the film. So that just proves my point… of those actors you listed none of them won the Oscar exactly for that reason, late entries. So Andra Day winning the Globe was an anomaly, the old men in HFPA didn’t vote for Mulligan maybe because they felt attacked by the film? In any case, Mulligan is rising and once she takes SAG she will be getting closer.

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    oscarin7
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    #1204148110

    Andra Day’s reward is her nomination, now the Oscar is a far stretch. Remember when she was at number 5 and in danger of not even getting a nomination? Then she strangely wins the Globe and all of a sudden everyone thinks she’s winning the Oscar. I mean, if her movie was a big hit I’d say yeah she’s winning for sure but she’s only relying on her performance and her nomination. It would take so much for her to win. The only thing that I could think could give her the win is factors such as the political environment and BLM playing a part of awarding her with the Oscar.

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    Victor
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    #1204148123

    I think it’s obviously Day vs Mulligan until the very last second with Kirby as the Dark Horse.

    FYC Emmys: Get MJ Rodriguez that deserved WIN! And some votes for Elizabeth Olsen, Tobias Menzies and Matthew Rhys will be highly tasteful as well

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    oscarin7
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    #1204148127

    I think it’s obviously Day vs Mulligan until the very last second with Kirby as the Dark Horse.

    I would agree with that.

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    Luca
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    #1204148131

    Andra Day’s reward is her nomination

    According to whom? You?

    Remember when she was at number 5 and in danger of not even getting a nomination? Then she strangely wins the Globe and all of a sudden  everyone thinks she’s winning the Oscar.

    Sometimes all you need is the Globe win. It gives you a lot of visibility and gives people a reason to check out the movie.

    The only thing that I could think could give her the win is factors such as the political environment and BLM playing a part of awarding her with the Oscar.

    If you think that would be political, I hope you’d also consider Carey’s potential win a result of White privilege. Andra ticks all the right boxes; it’s not that hard to imagine her winning on performance. Sure, politics always play a role in some shape or form, meaning also when a White person wins, which no one ever talks about. Plus, if the academy was so concerned with being politically correct, why has only one Black actress won this category?

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    estrelas
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    #1204148136

    We are all aware of the SAG stat. But again, I think Day’s snub could be chalked up to the late distribution of her movie. Had she been nominated, she’d be winning.

    Andra can definitely win the Oscar but where is this overconfidence that had she been nominated for SAG she definitely would’ve won, coming from? SAG has an awful track record when it comes to reward Breakthrough/newcomers performances in lead (or even in supporting for that matter). And yes, they love big performances, but I would like to remind you that Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose (one of the most iconic Best Actress winners of the century) lost SAG to a far more established Actress with a very subtle performance. And Marion had a huge campaign behind her. Again, Andra can absolutely win the Oscar but some of the arguments are a bit of a head scratcher.

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    oscarin7
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    #1204148141

    Andra can definitely win the Oscar but where is this overconfidence that had she been nominated for SAG she definitely would’ve won, coming from? SAG has an awful track record when it comes to reward Breakthrough/newcomers performances in lead (or even in supporting for that matter). And yes, they love big performances, but I would like to remind you that Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose (one of the most iconic Best Actress winners of the century) lost SAG to a far more established Actress with a very subtle performance. And Marion had a huge campaign behind her. Again, Andra can absolutely win the Oscar but some of the arguments are a bit of a head scratcher.

    Omg thank you Estrelas. Finally someone is making some sense around here. 👏🏽

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    estrelas
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    #1204148147

    Like, Andra has obviously a huge narrative and buzz around her. She’s absolutely in this race and I definitely won’t be surprised if she wins. But that argument that she would absolutely win SAG had she been nominated is a bit ott and just as baseless as many other arguments for the other contenders in the race.

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    Luca
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    #1204148151

    Andra can definitely win the Oscar but where is this overconfidence that had she been nominated for SAG she definitely would’ve won, coming from? SAG has an awful track record when it comes to reward Breakthrough/newcomers performances in lead (or even in supporting for that matter). And yes, they love big performances, but I would like to remind you that Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose (one of the most iconic Best Actress winners of the century) lost SAG to a far more established Actress with a very subtle performance. And Marion had a huge campaign behind her. Again, Andra can absolutely win the Oscar but some of the arguments are a bit of a head scratcher.

    Fair enough. I still think Andra would have won SAG though. They’ve just become such sheep — which doesn’t mean Andra wouldn’t have been deserving, because she absolutely would have.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204148160

    If you think that would be political, I hope you’d also consider Carey’s potential win a result of White privilege. Andra ticks all the right boxes; it’s not that hard to imagine her winning on performance. Sure, politics always play a role in some shape or form, meaning also when a White person wins, which no one ever talks about. Plus, if the academy was so concerned with being politically correct, why has only one Black actress won this category?

    How would Carey winning be a result of white privilege ??

    EMMY FYC

    The Crown in all categories

    Mare of Easttown, Kate Winslet & Julianne Nicholson

    IMDY!

    Ted Lasso and The Flight Attendant in all categories.

    Elisabeth Moss & OT Fagbenle

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    Luca
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    #1204148162

    How would Carey winning be a result of white privilege ??

    That wasn’t my point. My point was: You can’t call every win by non-White actors a political statement/ politically motivated but then pretend like all White actors just win on merit. If non-White people winning is a political statement, then so is a White person winning, just an unintentional one.

    I, however, don’t think that way. The ridiculousness of that assumption is what I was trying to highlight.

    Does that make sense?

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