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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 41)

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204141772

    Things have never happened until they have happened. 91 years of English language movies winning Best Picture until last year. 92 years of no Asian Lead Actor nominees until this year. 40-ish years of no Golden Globe Drama Actress winners snubbed until this year. There are exceptions to every rule. I don’t know who’s going to win, but “never happened before” should be a factor to be considered alongside all other factors, not a hard line rule.

    I know Davis has an army of fans & defenders on Gold Derby, but for unique records, you need a groundbreaking achievement, and Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the opposite of that.

    Most of Ma Rainey‘s buzz went for Chadwick Boseman’s deserving performance. He’s been winning awards left and right, and no one seems unsatisfied that he’s the sole representative of Ma Rainey’s awards love.

    The film underperformed everywhere except SAG (that also doesn’t say much after they went 2/5 with the Oscar lineup). No Golden Globe mentions for the movie, the director, the screenplay, no BAFTA mentions other than two creative categories and Boseman (so not even the BAFTA jury cared for the film, even with four POC women nominated in lead), no Oscar mentions for the movie, the director, the screenplay. That’s an issue, esp. as both Nomadland & Promising Young Woman did so much better, and Andra Day won the Golden Globe over her.

    The performance didn’t generate much passion. I mean she’s been nominated almost everywhere but hasn’t been winning anything, and there isn’t much of a ‘she was robbed’ sentiment in the air. At least with Mulligan, people feel upset she lost Golden Globe and missed BAFTA.

    So, once again, I understand that for many people Viola Davis is a Goddess, and she is truly an outstanding performer, but her role & performance in this film is just not it. It’s not a Parasite type of achievement that everybody’s been rooting for. She’s not seen as the best of her category, her film is not strong, the role is small compared to the other ladies with +1 hour of screentime in her category, Boseman’s taking all the attention and overall she just lacks passion. Not to mention she’s just won 4 years ago. There are just too many obstacles.

    She’ll get there. I know she will. But it’d be one of the shockest things to see her winning for this particular role/performance.

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    Ash
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    #1204141834

    If viola stans want to hold out hope for a Oscar with a sag win that’s there business. A mulligan stan just said if carrey looses sag she still good for the win. MIND YOUR BUINESS PEOPLE.

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    linecelts
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    #1204141846

    We’re going crazy again…………It’s no wonder how this thread is now Part 41!!!

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204141849

    Some of us are actually here to comment on the awards race and not interested in the stan wars.

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    wattsgold
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    #1204142010

    They did it again…

    I can’t. PYW is being promoted in this side of the word as “Hermosa Venganza” (Beautiful Revenge). Someone fire these people. I bet it’s 1000 better in any other language.
    At least we had “Fragmentos de una mujer” with Kirby.

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    SN
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    #1204142058

    They did it again…

    I can’t. PYW is being promoted in this side of the word as “Hermosa Venganza” (Beautiful Revenge). Someone fire these people. I bet it’s 1000 better in any other language.
    At least we had “Fragmentos de una mujer” with Kirby.

    LOL it has this same title here (Bela Vigança – Beautiful Revenge).

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    wolfali
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    #1204142071

    One of the only things I like about living here is the fact that we don’t get all these title changes and if they do happen it’s more like “LeMans 66” instead of “Ford vs Ferrari“.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    asianmoviegeek
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    #1204142323

    Yeri Han >>>Jennifer Floprence

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    Monty
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    #1204142660

    With her type of film, I think Mulligan needed the Globe to really take a hold of this race. A SAG win may not be enough, especially with no chance at BAFTA to cement it.

    I do think Viola may take SAG though.

    Mulligan already has several critical wins under her belt like LA, NBR, AACTA and CC. This is good enough to cement her frontrunner status up to this point. And she gets the voting block of the Brits anyway.
    With Promising Young Woman getting Picture, Director and Screenplay nominations, it shows widespread support for the film among academy members. Emerald Fennell’s director nomination is crucial to Mulligan’s chance like Lenny Abrahamson (to Larson) and Todd Philips (to Phoenix) a few years ago.

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204142757

    Mulligan already has several critical wins under her belt like LA, NBR, AACTA and CC. This is good enough to cement her frontrunner status up to this point. And she gets the voting block of the Brits anyway. With Promising Young Woman getting Picture, Director and Screenplay nominations, it shows widespread support for the film among academy members. Emerald Fennell’s director nomination is crucial to Mulligan’s chance like Lenny Abrahamson (to Larson) and Todd Philips (to Phoenix) a few years ago.

    This! People always forget everyone (not just the actors and definitely no one from the HFPA) votes for the winners. Careys BAFTA snub with the jury was apparent and that was on the news everywhere… that British voting body is going to go all over Carey. Globes are getting less and less relevant. If Carey wins SAG its over.

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204142782

    Did not she have the British bloc for an Education? I remember it did so well at BAFTA and even got a BP Oscar nomination.

    Yup. Without that jury Carey would’ve easily taken bafta this year too I think.

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    wolfali
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    #1204142788

    Did not she have the British bloc for an Education?

    Perhaps but the winner then did not only win SAG, but was also in a film nominated for Best Picture.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204142796

    So was Carey Mulligan and she had the British bloc too. Obviously she is not going to win the Oscar without SAG, this is the point I’m trying to make.

    Lmfao no one, not even Meryl was goinf to beat Sandra that year. Do you not remember how popular The Blind Side and Bullock was that year? Don’t forget that it even got nominated for BP with no other noms besides Actress and that should also be telling.

    Edit: Plus that gigantic box office draw. Everyone I knew saw Blind Side. No one cares about United States v Billie Holliday (the movie sucks so it’s ok) except for actors that have praised Day’s performance (and rightfully so)

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    Luca
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    #1204142820

    When people talk about the British bloc, do they just forget that Vanessa Kirby — who is actually nominated at BAFTA — exists? I already consider the assumption that all Brits are going to vote for Brits to be strange, but then to go further and think that only Mulligan would benefit is even stranger. I get that her movie is stronger and more popular, but I don’t think that matters when Vanessa was able to get in everywhere without her movie.

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    mi_gi_1988
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    #1204142834

    Gangs of New York was nominated for 10 Oscars and Daniel Day Lewis won Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA, he ended up losing the Oscar to Adrien Brody for a Roman Polanski’s film.

    That’s an only one time happening thing. A rarity.

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