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I don’t think anything can put the race to bed. Even if one actress scores 2 wins from this point onward, Oscar will still be a nailbiter cause we would have this situation: Day – Globe (set in stone) Mulligan – CC (set in stone) SAG (maybe) Davis – SAG (maybe) Kirby – SAG (maybe), BAFTA (maybe) McDormand – SAG (maybe), BAFTA (maybe) So from this point, only Mulligan, Kirby or McDormand can enter Oscar game with 2 wins under their belt. No one can score more than 2. Which is clunky at best and tough to call that one, if anyone indeed collects 2, a sure winner. We can only assume that whoever remains without any precursor win is out of the race.
I get the arguments of 2 not being enough to make a winner automatic, however, since the only thing that stood between Carey and the bafta was a jury of 12 not liking her performance enough to nominate her, I’m not going to hold that snub against her either. Im not gonna say she’s 100 percent but at the very least that would put her chances in the 70s.
Vanessa Kirby or Mcdormand winning both could also be a huge momentum swing for either. Since those two orgs share common voters so that would make bafta super important, under those circumstances.
Viola or adams winning would just be chaos. Im starting to root for chaos.
Why my gut tells me that it’s Kirby? Is it the start of Kirby’s dominance?
"The Lost Daughter" in every eligible category - Film
"Succession" Season 3 in every eligible category - TV
"Heaux Tales" by Jasmine Sullivan in every eligible category - MusicFingers crossed for Mulligan on Sunday. She’s nowhere near a lock for the win there (or at the Oscars either even if she wins SAG) but fingers crossed she wins SAG and then the Oscar!
Vanessa Kirby or Mcdormand winning both could also be a huge momentum swing for either. Since those two orgs share common voters so that would make bafta super important, under those circumstances.
The fact that Vanessa got in at BAFTA as her film’s sole nomination speaks volumes to the strength of her performance.
FYC: Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Why my gut tells me that it’s Kirby? Is it the start of Kirby’s dominance?
From your mouth to the ears of the divine.
FYC: Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
The race is over if Mulligan loses SAG to anyone.
Perhaps. But what if Frances McDormand wins both SAG and the BAFTA or Vanessa Kirby wins both SAG and the BAFTA?
Then Day wins.
I mean I’m not ruling out Day from winning until the moment the envelope is opened at the Union Station (I mean she has one hell of a narrative) and I don’t actually think BAFTA and SAG will match up this year. But when was the last time someone won both the BAFTA and SAG awards and lost the Oscar?
There’s been a lot of talk arguing that but for the pandemic, a lot of the films and performances that received Oscar nominations this year would never have been nominated. While probably true, my view is that this is the strongest field of Best Actress nominees that I can recall in YEARS. (For example, last year I thought that only two of the nominees gave Oscar worthy performances.) Every single one of this year’s nominees gives a great performance that is award-worthy, and that fact alone merits celebrating, as does the fact that regardless of who wins SAG or BAFTA, we won’t know who will win the Oscar until the night the envelope is actually opened.
I’m still predicting Carey Mulligan, and I’m rooting for her, in part because I think that if she doesn’t win this year, she seems to me to be the least likely of the five current nominees to have a realistic chance of winning an Oscar in the future. I believe this to be true despite her great talent and the respect she has in “the industry” because of (1) her generally understated acting style, (2) her selectivity in choosing roles which leads to her accepting fewer roles than most other prominent actors, and (3) her desire for privacy and approach to being a celebrity.
The race is over if Mulligan loses SAG to anyone.
Tacky Adams won SAG.
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Tang Wei, Decision To Leave
Rebecca Hall, ResurrectionJames Hong & Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Fingers crossed for Mulligan on Sunday. She’s nowhere near a lock for the win there (or at the Oscars either even if she wins SAG) but fingers crossed she wins SAG and then the Oscar!
We need the DJs, waiters and influencers to come through 💀
Perhaps. But what if Frances McDormand wins both SAG and the BAFTA or Vanessa Kirby wins both SAG and the BAFTA?
Then Day wins.
I’m also confused. If someone wins BAFTA and SAG that indicates overwhelming industry approval for them.
I’m also confused. If someone wins BAFTA and SAG that indicates overwhelming industry approval for them.
The person who won Golden Globe, which has like 80 members (european journalists) and only 1 overlapping Ampas member, is winning the Oscar over a person who won 2 important precursors with actual industry members.
Logic.
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