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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 42)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204169684

    While I think Mulligan’s chances will be significantly worse if she loses SAG (God willing she wins *does Catholic cross hand motion*), she’s not over. The British and European block of AMPAS can really push Mulligan forward, especially since there were apparently a lot of BAFTA voters who were really upset about her snub. If those people really rally behind her to get back at the juries in some weird way, she can seriously come up the middle in a weird way. She’s also easily the populist pick. I did some anecdotal Reddit polls (anecdotal because they’re not Oscar voters) on who should win Best Actress, and she is leading by over a hundred votes in every single poll. That has to count for something. The fact that her film may very well be the runner-up for Best Picture also helps her. And I’ve looked at this from a lot of different angles too, and the other nominees have some pretty big dings against them

    Viola’s film was snubbed for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay and her film’s campaign and momentum is almost entirely focused on Chadwick. There’s also the debate on whether or not she’s even a lead (you have your opinion on that and I have mine, but they are irrelevant here). The road is pretty narrow and she honestly might be in last place when all is said and done.

    Andra won the Globe and she has the narrative behind her, but she’s the only nomination for her film, which has historically spelled doom in competitive races (I’m looking at you, Glenn Close). I’m willing to buy the SAG snub was due to screeners, but the BAFTA longlist snub wasn’t because of screeners, especially since the movie itself was longlisted elsewhere. It also makes a lot of sense that the Globes of all places would pick her because they love musicals, movies about music, and singers who turn to acting. AMPAS is not quite as friendly in recent years, but they do like some of them. Andra’s a threat for sure, but I don’t think she has a really good chance.

    Vanessa would have to win SAG in order for me to even consider her. She’s the only nomination for her film, and it hasn’t mustered a whole lot of hype. Couldn’t even get Ellen Burstyn a nomination. If she wins just BAFTA, I’ll consider it more of a wash.

    Frances could by virtue of the fact that she’s in the frontrunner for Best Picture, but I have a hard time seeing Nomadland winning five or six Oscars for some reason, and plus she’d be winning a third as a producer anyway. Do voters care enough to know that? I’m sure that many of them know about it, it’s pretty hard to ignore when she’s the highest profile person nominated for Best Picture this year. You also don’t win a second or third Oscar so soon unless you’re just completely undeniable. If Daniel Day-Lewis had lost just one major prize for Lincoln, I wonder if we’d be calling him a “three-time Oscar winner”. Again, she’d have to win SAG in order for me to consider her more.

    Carey has her dings as well. Lost Golden Globe, no BAFTA nomination even with jury, campaign for her film putting a lot of its focus on Fennell, they’re there. But she seems to have the most going for her. I’m gonna root for her until the end.

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204169695

    Then there will be two winners.

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    wolfali
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    #1204169703

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    George Ehret
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    #1204169707

    What if we’ll have a tie?

    Would be fitting considering the current state of the race

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204170258

    If Davis does end up winning SAG I do think her win would be more like Denzel in 2017. I just really don’t see her winning the oscar

    EMMYS FYC

    The White Lotus in all categories

    Landscapers, Olivia Colman & David Thewlis

    Ted Lasso in all Categories

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    crabbie
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    #1204170262

    I don’t submit Davis being namechecked at SAG for her wins for The Help and Fences. But if she wins for Ma Rainey then I would agree it would be name checked. A Davis win at SAG helps Day the most though.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    wattsgold
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    #1204172716

    It’s been 10 years since Natalie. As silly as this might sound: It would be so cool and satisfying to see Mulligan win and celebrate the accomplishment of a performance I enjoyed every second. Just putting it out there 💋

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    Matheus Vaz
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    #1204173285

    It’s been 10 years since Natalie. As silly as this might sound: It would be so cool and satisfying to see Mulligan win and celebrate the accomplishment of a performance I enjoyed every second. Just putting it out there 💋

    I feel the same, it’s been ages that I enjoyed the most a winning performance in best actress.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204173319

    I agree. Only performances worth winning in the 2010s: Natalie Portman, Cate Blanchett and Olivia Colman. The others are all shitty winners.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204173446

    I personally would choose Vanessa Kirby in this category but for me it has always been Davis vs. Mulligan. Davis has won before but that hasn’t mattered so much in the past decade or so – Christoph Waltz and Mahersala Ali both won extremely soon after their first wins. My gut tells me Mulligan will win, with the slight advantage of her film being a BP nominee – if Davis were to win there would be 3 African-American winners this year, which would be a first, since Boseman and Kaluuya seem inevitable. I do think whoever wins SAG will win the Oscar this year and I will change my prediction (currently Mulligan) if Davis wins at SAG.

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    Jazzy
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    #1204174022

    I’m still not sold on Mulligan winning best actress regardless of the SAG outcome, but what pains me is Vanessa Kirby going home completely empty-handed for giving the best performance in this category. Her movie is too irrelevant wbk but hopefully homecountry advantage gives her the edge at BAFTA. I don’t care if she doesn’t win Oscar which she possibly wouldn’t even with SAG + BAFTA combo, but at least let her have something out of this mess of a race.

    It’s bewildering to think that Vanessa could go home empty handed. To this very day I do not understand the hype over Mulligan’s performance. Carey didn’t do shit especially when compared to Vanessa’s performance. It’s mindboggling that Vanessa’s performance has been ignored nearly all season long. It’s almost as if all these awarding bodies watched an alternate version of Pieces of a Woman that they didn’t think Vanessa’s performance was award worthy lol. And this whole idea that “she’ll have a good career one day so she doesn’t need to win” is preposterous. What kinds of roles can she expect to get in the future???? To play someone’s wife? To play someone’s daughter? It’s extremely unlikely that she’ll ever get another challenging role like this.

    FYC: Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    #1204174024

    Darlings, why does it look like this year we’ll have a tie?

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    wolfali
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    #1204174050

    When they get someone to play Ingrid Bergman and announce there’s a tie between Frances McDormand and Andra Day…

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    Oscirus Jones
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    Mar 8th, 2021
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    #1204174063

    Vanessas problem is ultimately that shes the only nom which seems to indicate it was a movie that academy members would rather not watch. Fair or not stuff like that affects movie chances

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    ShinySeaDiamond
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    #1204174446

    When they get someone to play Ingrid Bergman and announce there’s a tie between Frances McDormand and Andra Day…

    If Andra or Viola tie with a white actress (and to a lesser extent if they tie with each other) the backlash will be mighty. Look at what happened with the (Man) Booker Awards in 2019.

    But on the topic of McDormand, she didn’t win the BAFTA in the season she competed with Fargo, so she only has one BAFTA. Since her two Oscars are part of why she’s not considered a strong competitor this year, maybe she stands a chance at BAFTA, which could be an interesting 11th hour twist.

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